[House Hearing, 116 Congress] [From the U.S. Government Publishing Office] SBA 7(A) BUDGET PROPOSAL AND THE IMPACT OF FEE STRUCTURE CHANGES ======================================================================= HEARING BEFORE THE SUBCOMMITTEE ON ECONOMIC GROWTH, TAX, AND CAPITAL ACCESS OF THE COMMITTEE ON SMALL BUSINESS UNITED STATES HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES ONE HUNDRED SIXTEENTH CONGRESS FIRST SESSION __________ HEARING HELD APRIL 10, 2019 __________ [GRAPHIC NOT AVAILABLE IN TIFF FORMAT] Available via the World Wide Web: http://www.govinfo.gov __________ U.S. GOVERNMENT PUBLISHING OFFICE 35-910 WASHINGTON : 2019 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Publishing Office, http://bookstore.gpo.gov. For more information, contact the GPO Customer Contact Center, U.S. Government Publishing Office. Phone 202-512-1800, or 866-512-1800 (toll-free). E-mail, [email protected]. Small Business Committee Document Number 116-015 Available via the GPO Website: www.govinfo.gov HOUSE COMMITTEE ON SMALL BUSINESS NYDIA VELAZQUEZ, New York, Chairwoman ABBY FINKENAUER, Iowa JARED GOLDEN, Maine ANDY KIM, New Jersey JASON CROW, Colorado SHARICE DAVIDS, Kansas JUDY CHU, California MARC VEASEY, Texas DWIGHT EVANS, Pennsylvania BRAD SCHNEIDER, Illinois ADRIANO ESPAILLAT, New York ANTONIO DELGADO, New York CHRISSY HOULAHAN, Pennsylvania ANGIE CRAIG, Minnesota STEVE CHABOT, Ohio, Ranking Member AUMUA AMATA COLEMAN RADEWAGEN, American Samoa, Vice Ranking Member TRENT KELLY, Mississippi TROY BALDERSON, Ohio KEVIN HERN, Oklahoma JIM HAGEDORN, Minnesota PETE STAUBER, Minnesota TIM BURCHETT, Tennessee ROSS SPANO, Florida JOHN JOYCE, Pennsylvania Adam Minehardt, Majority Staff Director Melissa Jung, Majority Deputy Staff Director and Chief Counsel Kevin Fitzpatrick, Staff Director C O N T E N T S OPENING STATEMENTS Page Hon. Andy Kim.................................................... 1 Hon. Kevin Hern.................................................. 2 WITNESSES Mr. Tim Gribben, Chief Financial Officer and Association Administrator for Performance Management, U.S. Small Business Administration, Washington, DC................................. 4 Mr. Tony Wilkinson, President & CEO, National Association of Government Guaranteed Lenders, Stillwater, OK.................. 13 Ms. Lynn G. Ozer, President, SBA Lending, Fulton Bank, Pottstown, PA............................................................. 14 Ms. Gail Jansen, Vice President of Business Services and Operations, Kinecta Federal Credit Union, Manhattan Beach, CA, testifying on behalf of the National Association of Federally- Insured Credit Unions.......................................... 16 Mr. Gordon Gray, Director of Fiscal Policy, American Action Forum, Washington, DC.......................................... 18 APPENDIX Prepared Statements: Mr. Tim Gribben, Chief Financial Officer and Association Administrator for Performance Management, U.S. Small Business Administration, Washington, DC.................... 27 Mr. Tony Wilkinson, President & CEO, National Association of Government Guaranteed Lenders, Stillwater, OK.............. 30 Ms. Lynn G. Ozer, President, SBA Lending, Fulton Bank, Pottstown, PA.............................................. 37 Ms. Gail Jansen, Vice President of Business Services and Operations, Kinecta Federal Credit Union, Manhattan Beach, CA, testifying on behalf of the National Association of Federally-Insured Credit Unions............................ 47 Mr. Gordon Gray, Director of Fiscal Policy, American Action Forum, Washington, DC...................................... 55 Questions for the Record: None. Answers for the Record: None. Additional Material for the Record: CBA - Consumer Bankers Association........................... 61 CUNA - Credit Union National Association..................... 63 SBA 7(A) BUDGET PROPOSAL AND THE IMPACT OF FEE STRUCTURE CHANGES ---------- WEDNESDAY, APRIL 10, 2019 House of Representatives, Committee on Small Business, Subcommittee on Economic Growth, Tax, and Capital Access, Washington, DC. The Subcommittee met, pursuant to call, at 10:04 a.m., in Room 2360, Rayburn House Office Building, Hon. Andy Kim [chairman of the Subcommittee] presiding. Present: Representatives Velazquez, Kim, Davids, Delgado, Crow, Hern, and Stauber. Chairman KIM. Good morning. The Subcommittee will come to order. I want to thank everyone for joining us this morning, and I want to especially thank the witness--witnesses who have traveled from across the country to be here today. Just before we jump into things, I do want to just remark that we will have votes coming up shortly. We are going to try to see if we can get through some of our opening remarks before we are able to--before we are called over to go and vote. So I am just going to just jump straight in here. On this Subcommittee, we are focused on making sure that small businesses, whether in my district or in Ranking Member Hern's district in Oklahoma, and every district across this country, can access the capital that they need to start, grow, and create new jobs. And we know that when capital is affordable and accessible, small businesses can do what they do best, which is strengthen our communities and fuel our economy. This is certainly something that I have witnessed firsthand in my own home State in New Jersey, where we have more than 850,000 small businesses, making up 99 percent of our State's businesses, employ over half of our workers. Recognizing that access to capital is a challenge for many entrepreneurs, SBA offers a variety of loan programs designed to help borrowers who may have a difficult time securing financing through other conventional lending markets, which brings me to the reason that we are here today, and that is to ensure that SBA's flagship 7(a) loan guaranty program is functioning to best serve our small businesses and taxpayers. This critical program has been a vital source of capital access for thousands of small businesses in my home district since 2008. In 2018 alone, the 7(a) program has supported 204 businesses in my district, totaling over $58 million in loans. Additionally, the program has served businesses in an incredibly wide range of industries ranging from catering companies to nurseries. Under the 7(a) program, SBA partners with banks and nonbank lending institutions who make up loans to small businesses, with SBA reimbursing a portion of the loan in the event the borrower defaults, also known as the guarantee. This guarantee minimizes the lender's risk in making the loan to the small businesses. And generally, SBA guarantees from 50 to 90 percent of each 7(a) loan made, depending on the loan characteristics. Now, to offset that cost of issuing these guarantees, SBA charges an upfront, one-time guarantee fee and an annual ongoing service fee for each 7(a) loan approved and dispersed. Now, traditionally, one of SBA's goal is to achieve a zero subsidy rate for its loan guaranty programs, including for the 7(a) loan. This occurs when the programs are projected to generate enough revenue through fees and recoveries of collateral to issue that year's guarantee without requiring congressional appropriation. Now, to calculate that subsidy rate, SBA and the Office of Management and Budget use an econometric model that takes into account numerous macroeconomic and SBA-specific assumptions, and if they predict a shortfall, SBA requests an appropriation from Congress to address it. Now, excluding the period from 2010 to 2013, when our Nation was recovering from the Great Recession, SBA has operated at zero subsidy since 2005. However, in its congressional budget justification for fiscal year 2020, SBA predicts that without modifications to the current law, it cannot achieve a zero subsidy rate for the 7(a) program. I look forward to hearing from Mr. Gribben about what goes into the calculation and understanding of why cash outflows exceed inflows resulting in a positive subsidy in the 7(a) program for fiscal year 2020. In response to the positive subsidy, SBA proposed numerous and considerable fee increases on both borrowers and lenders, and this caused a great deal of anxiety among small businesses, small business borrowers, and the lending institutions that participate in the 7(a) program. Any increases in fees like those SBA has suggested to cover this shortfall could result in fewer small businesses applying for and getting access to capital, and that is why today's hearing is so timely and important. And I look forward to hearing from our witnesses on potential solutions to this issue. And we can all at least agree that these programs are incredibly important, and I look forward to working with my colleagues on both sides of the aisle to address the challenges facing our small business owners when it comes to securing capital. Again, I want to thank all the witnesses for being here. I now yield to the Ranking Member, Mr. Hern, for his opening remarks. Mr. HERN. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Mr. Gribben, thank you for being here. Despite ongoing positive economic news, the Nation's smallest firms continue to face challenges when it comes to regulations, saving for retirement, access to capital. I know these challenges personally and professionally. I have been a small business owner for over 34 years. Additionally, I have served 17 years on bank executive boards; 13 years on McDonald's leadership team, which represents over 3,500 franchises; 8 of those years as ombudsman; 5 years as Chairman of the Systems Economic Team; 5 years on the McDonald's Tax Policy Team; and 8 years on the McDonald's Insurance Corporation Board. I know these issues facing our Nation's smallest firms firsthand. In order to help fill the gap that exists for small businesses when it comes to access to capital, the Small Business Administration offers numerous financing and lending options. The flagship and largest program is the 7(a) loan program that does not provide direct loans to small businesses but provides guarantees on the loans made by partnering financial institutions to eligible small firms. The program has grown rapidly in recent years with the program's authorization cap going from $18.75 billion fiscal year 2015 to fiscal year 2020 budget request of $30 billion. Additionally, the 7(a) loan program has built-in fees to help offset the cost of any losses in the program per the Federal Credit Reform Act of 1990. Because fees have been sufficient over the last half dozen years, the program has been running on zero cost to the American taxpayer. Within the fiscal year 2020 budget submission, the model that calculates the cost of the program indicates that the 7(a) loan program will no longer be at a zero subsidy. Rather, the program may require $99 million appropriation for and by American taxpayers or an adjustment to the fee structure that hits program participants. According to CRS, the average loan size in the SA loan-- 7(a) loan program is approximately $420,000. That is a total of $25.4 billion in loans last year, over 60,000 total loans. A bill is important to run this average to the SBA's legislative proposal that would bring the program to zero subsidy. While I acknowledge there are nuances to the fee structure, the average loan size of $420,000 does not seem to be impacted by the fee proposal if the maturity of the loan is more than 12 months. The upfront fee that goes to borrowers on the small business owner for loans of $500,000 or less seems to remain at 3 percent. Additionally, that fee that lenders have to pay, the ongoing fee, also does not appear to change for loans under $500,000. However, before we entertain the legislative options of either appropriation or fee change to close this potential $99 million gap, we must explore the reasons behind the shortfall and gain a better understanding of the model used to calculate the cost. What variables or assumptions are used in a model and has the model changed over the years? I look forward to both panels that will explore these questions and more. And, Mr. Chairman, I ask unanimous consent to enter this letter from the Credit Union National Association, that is addressed to you and I, and it is challenging us to find an amiable solution to keep this program viable. Chairman KIM. So ordered. Mr. HERN. And, Mr. Chairman, I yield back. Chairman KIM. Thank you. We certainly are very blessed to have the extraordinary experience that the Ranking Member brings to the Small Business Committee, and he and I are committed to be able to work on this in a bipartisan way. Hopefully before votes, we will be able to finish on up, so I just wanted to have a chance to be able to introduce our first witness here. Our first witness is Mr. Tim Gribben. Mr. Gribben is the chief financial officer and associate administrator for performance management at the U.S. Small Business Administration. And in this role, he has the responsibility of all aspects of SBA's financial management, internal controls, and acquisition. He has been with the SBA since 2009, when he started as a director of performance management and deputy performance improvement officer. Mr. Gribben, why don't we just jump right in. You are recognized for 5 minutes. STATEMENT OF TIM GRIBBEN, CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER AND ASSOCIATION ADMINISTRATOR FOR PERFORMANCE MANAGEMENT, U.S. SMALL BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION Mr. GRIBBEN. Thank you, Chairman Kim, Ranking Member Hern, and members of the Committee. Thank you for inviting me to discuss SBA 7(a) loan program and our fiscal 2020 budget proposal. I have served as the chief financial officer or the deputy CFO for nearly 7 years, and every year, with respect to our 7(a) loan program, my office engages in a process to evaluate and project loan performance. This process occurs annually, notwithstanding administration, and is a routine executive branch function. My written testimony provides greater overall detail on that process, so let me provide some general context and walk you through the basic steps we take every year. First, we model for future loan performance. Next, we determine what fee structure to achieve zero subsidy, and then we review what the agency might be able to offer for fee relief if that fee--if it shows that the fees could be set to achieve fee relief. Every year, my office looks closely at the elements that go into our model, and we make refinements to more accurately capture and reflect the future loan performance. The goal is to determine the true cost of the program and then to set our fees accordingly. The model is thoroughly reviewed by the agency, by a third-party contractor, by the Office of Management and Budget, and also by our external auditor every year. Looking back at trends over the last couple of years, we have been near or at the ceiling for our statutory fee structure, and as a result, we have not been able to offer the same fee relief each year. These recent trends bring us to this year's budget discussion and the projection of a positive subsidy rate for the fiscal year 2020 program under current law. In order to operate our 7(a) program in fiscal year 2020, SBA will either need an appropriation of Federal dollars or an adjustment to the fee rates. In our annual budget submission and in our briefings that we did to the different Committee staffers over the last few weeks, the agency presented options for Congress so as to support an annual level of $30 billion in 7(a) loans. The fee--the first option would involve a subsidy appropriation of $99 million; the second option involves statutory changes to the fee structure in order to maintain zero subsidy; and the third option involves a combination of statutory changes to the fee structure and an offset to the agency's business loan administration cost also to maintain zero subsidy. Our annual budget and my written testimony also prevents-- presents details on the proposed fee structure. We attempt within that fee structure to maintain the ability to incentivize small dollar loans and lending in underserved communities. In closing, Mr. Chairman, the agency's annual modeling and performance projects a positive subsidy rate for fiscal year 2020. And it is important to note that even absent refinements that my office makes to performance assessments, the program still projected a positive subsidy for the next fiscal year, and the Committee and Congress will need to consider options for the agency's 7(a) loan program. Thank you again, Mr. Chairman, for inviting me to testify today, and I look forward to answering any questions that you may have. Chairman KIM. Okay. Great. Thank you for your testimony here. I am going to start off with a couple questions of my own, and it looks like we have a little bit more time to go, so we will get through as much as we can. Well, the reason we are here today is to examine the proposed changes to the 7(a) program and to ensure that any of these proposed changes would not further strain capital access for small businesses. Now, to that effect, the goal of the 7(a) program is to operate at zero subsidy, meaning that fees and collections cover the cost of running the program. And as we heard from your testimony, we are aware you are now predicting the program to generate sufficient revenue in fiscal year 2020, meaning that the program will be operating positive subsidy. I wanted to ask, will the 7(a) program have to shut down if the program remains in positive subsidy? Mr. GRIBBEN. Absent an appropriation for dollars, it would have to shut down, yes. Chairman KIM. So if Congress does not appropriate the money or the raised fees as you proposed, it would have to shut down? Mr. GRIBBEN. That is correct. Chairman KIM. So the program is not historically funded by appropriations, so I would like to take a deeper dive into the calculations that projected the need for additional funds to keep the program going. SBA's economic modeling and OMB's economic assumptions are leading to a bleak outlook for fiscal year 2020 performance-- program performance. And right now, it is still unclear to me what factors went into that model and the weight each of them carried when the model was calculated. You know, for example, the Small Business Act's requirements do not factor in good and bad economic times, so why would it make sense to propose a scenario where assumptions are tied to adverse economic trends if the Small Business Act itself doesn't contain such assumptions? Mr. GRIBBEN. Prior to 2014, the--our subsidy model was not as--did not take into account the macroeconomic assumptions, and as a result, it was leading to large upward subsidy reestimates. That is--that is the reestimate process that we do every year to see the assumptions that we made in prior years, is that meeting the actual performance projections, and the answer is that it was not. So we made a modification to the model in twenty--that we introduced in 2014 to take the long-term macroeconomic assumptions into account. When a loan is made in times when the economy is good and if the projections are a change in the assumptions over the long term, those loans have a tendency to default at a higher rate than when loans that are made when the economy is bad and the projections are assuming that the economy will improve over time. That is why, as part of the Federal Credit Reform Act, we are supposed to take things like that into account to bring the cost of the program into today, rather than having it borne by future reassessments being paid by the taxpayers that way. Chairman KIM. Well, I just want to dive into, you know, one of these particular issues that I am having trouble understanding through. Now, the programs--when we look at the 5-year average recovery rate on the defaulted loans as reported to Congress last December was about 50 percent. But that seems to stand in contrast to the fiscal year 2020 budget, which assumes a projected recovery rate of only 37.29. So I just wanted to get a sense from you how that is being generated and why there is a discrepancy there. Mr. GRIBBEN. There is--it is two different ways at looking at the performance measures. So the 50 percent number that you are mentioning is looking at all the purchases that were made in a 5-year period of time, all the recoveries on those purchases made over a 5-year period of time, regardless of the year that those loans were approved. And in June of 2018, that was 50 percent, according to a 5-year rolling average. That number has also changed. It has decreased since that time. But in the model, we have to look at it from the aspects of that--what will happen with the cohort that--the loans that are made and approved in that year over the lifetime of those loans. That is a different way of looking at it. It is not looking at it from a portfolio perspective, which is what the Office of Credit Risk Management uses, it looks at it as what is this loan cohort going to look like over the future of the loans. And in that case, the--when you look at it from that perspective, that is where we calculate the 37 percent. That is what history is showing us. Chairman KIM. So I think the main thing that you are likely to hear from all of us today is just that, obviously, this is an incredibly important program, and a lot of small businesses depend on this type of access to capital. And when we are experiencing right now is something that really stands at a fundamental moment of what are we going to do with this going forward. So what we need from you is just an assurance that you are going to be able to provide us with the details that we need, the documentation that we need to understand what went into your calculations and why it is that we face this decision before us here in Congress right now. So I just want to have your assurances there that we are going to be able to get those documents and be able to work with you on an expedited timeline so that we can understand what went into this and we can understand the decisions that are placed before us that didn't have to come before us in any other previous year. Mr. GRIBBEN. We can provide more information. As an example, the briefings that I have been providing more details into the model. The models are very complex. They do use some information that are agency projections and projections from the Office of Management and Budget. And the models are thoroughly reviewed. The documentation on the assumptions of what changed from the prior year, the inputs into that model, those are all reviewed by external parties to determine that the agency is doing the best job it can to forecast future performance to make sure that we are accurately reflecting the cost of those programs today over the lifetime of the loans that are being--that the loans will be serviced. Chairman KIM. No, that is--I appreciate that insight. And I look forward to working with you on this more, because, you know, as we are being asked to consider, you know, $99 million in taxpayer money, we just need to make sure that we are doing our due diligence and thoroughly analyzing whether or not that is a good use of the taxpayer dollars and if every other effort has been made to try to avoid that from happening. And I think right now, we just want to think of this as a factfinding operation, be able to get everything that we need for us to be able to make those considerations. One last question for you. As we are going through this, based on what you know and the processes that you were running there, do you think that we need to be able to speak with OMB to be able to have a full picture of what is going on here? Mr. GRIBBEN. I personally don't believe that is necessary. Chairman KIM. Okay. Well, I am going to turn it over to the Ranking Member here for a couple questions. Mr. HERN. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Mr. Gibben--Gribben, I am sorry--as mentioned in the opening statement, the 7(a) loan program has been growing rapidly over the last couple years, $18.75 billion, 2015, to $30 billion in 2020. And the congressional budget indicates the number will be $99 million that you need for the $30 billion program. In your testimony, you state there are three main inputs into the model: performance assumption, cohort composite assumptions, and macroeconomic assumption. Are these variables weighed the same? Mr. GRIBBEN. They are treated differently. The--but they all go into factoring what the cost of the program might be. The model looks at the actual performance of the portfolio over 26 years. That has the bigger impact on the model than anything else, that and the projections for--when we--I said we--in 2014, when we introduced the changes to the model to put greater weight on some of the macroeconomic assumptions, it was on long-term unemployment. So the history of unemployment and the projections of unemployment in the future have the biggest impact on the model than most of the other factors. Mr. HERN. Yeah. So I have a lot of questions around it. But in fiscal 2020, the congressional budget justification, you stated that you altered how your estimate--estimate purchase amounts. Can you describe in detail the old method versus the new method? Mr. GRIBBEN. The old method was taking a simpler approach to--what we have to try to figure out is, in the future, what percentage of the loans that are approved in that fiscal year are going to default and at what amount we would have to purchase them. The old model was assuming there was a period of time from the time that a loan went into default until it was actually purchased. When we look at the actual history, the time length between when a loan defaults and when it is actually purchased was longer than the model had been assuming. So taking that into account, what that means is the purchase amounts on average over this span of 20 years was about 8 percent higher than the model had been forecasting. So we changed the--we changed the way that we looked at the--that time to calculate what is an average default to purchase event and to be able to calculate what a purchase amount would have been. That was the refinement that we made for this 2020 model. Mr. HERN. You also state that you annually test the predictive ability of the existing assumptions and adjust the methodology as necessary. I think that is what you were just referencing. So I have got a couple questions. Since you also have a program, SBDC, where you are out helping folks understand their business models before they ever get a loan or go to a lending institution as a service to small businessmen and women in America, based on what you have seen with failure rates, have you adjusted that coaching model that you have out there to maybe look a little more stringent at business plans to make sure they are more long-term viable as opposed to what is causing the failures now? Or would you say it is a naturally not predictable failure rates that are going on? Mr. GRIBBEN. I am struggling to answer that question just because I am not sure exactly what the Small Business Development Centers, when they talk to the small businesses about potential lending, what they might be discussing with them. Mr. HERN. Well, it just seems that if you have got businesses that are failing and you are responsible, you are going to come back and ask the American taxpayers for $100 million or ask small businessmen and women to pay--I am just running some numbers--anywhere from 23 cents a day to 46 cents a day over a life of a loan because there is a higher failure rate than you originally had predicted, that we would somehow, in that same guise of helping people actually get to these loans, that you would help them maybe not make the same mistakes as their predecessor. I mean, you just referenced that you have taken 26 years of history and using that to formulate and sort of benchmark your model going forward, it seems like we would also take some of those failures maybe where you are advising some potential businessmen and women to not make those same mistakes again. Mr. GRIBBEN. Which is exactly what happens in the micro loan program. That micro loan program where the technical assistance is directly tied to the loans that are made, those-- that is the counseling and training that they get that are really focused on their business plans and their ability to repay the loans over time. And in terms of what I was referring to when we look at the assumptions that we make in the model to project future purchase events, the cash flows that are going to occur over the next 20 to 30 years of the lifetime of the loan, there are a number of different factors why a business might not be able to repay back a loan. And we are trying to determine from--and there is a lot of factors that go into it, from geography to industry to loan sizes, the different sub programs that comprise the 7(a) category. There are a number of different factors why a small business might fail. Mr. HERN. Sure. Well, I think that would help us understand, as the Chairman said, because as we are looking at failure rates that are beyond--or earlier than you originally projected that is causing the problem you are saying. One last thing and then I will yield back. Since the 7(a) loans are sort of lender of last resort because banks say they can't take them, then you are obviously looking at something that may be a little riskier than a traditional commercial bank, that there has been a little bit less take rate in 2018, which would probably indicate that commercial banks are a little more willing to take more risk now, marginally more risk. The failure rate, the predictability of the failure rate, also realizing that a traditional bank is not going to give you a 20-year fixed rate, so that is a unique thing, are you looking to see if banks have changed their model of evaluating the loans? I mean, it is a big portfolio. But I am just curious as the relationship of the bank and how they are looking at these business models. Chairman KIM. If you can just be brief in your remarks here. Mr. GRIBBEN. Okay. We do not look at it from that aspect. We look at it as the 7(a) portfolio. We look at the early indicators of default rates and use that to make projections for the 7(a) program itself. Mr. HERN. Mr. Chairman, thank you. Chairman KIM. I just wanted to recognize Representative Davids to be able to ask questions. You are recognized for 5 minutes. Ms. DAVIDS. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Well, I appreciate the testimony that you have provided today. And I would actually love to follow up on the Ranking Member's line of questioning, because I think there has been maybe a view that we don't have a holistic approach to how the lending is happening and how the fee structure is working and the modeling that is being put out. And I am not positive if that is where he was going, but it does seem as though with the--that there are maybe some missing links here for some of us. When we look at an unemployment rate that in the modeling is like optimistic maybe, and then we look at the projection of a--like a deteriorating or higher failure rate, I think the question is how--why do you think that is happening based on the modeling that you have got? And then I suppose a follow-up question is, do you think it would be helpful for your program to start working with other programs within the SBA that is providing service--I see the votes just got called--but providing services to folks who are seeking to use the SBA 7(a) program? Mr. GRIBBEN. So in answer to your first question, if you look at the history of the fee structure, where the fees have been set, and our ability to offer fee relief, the pattern is clear that over the last few years, we are not able--we were not able to offer the fee relief that we were able to offer in the prior year, because we were coming closer and closer to that point where the fees were not going to cover the expected future defaults. So that is where--when you look at that trend over time and you look at 2020, that is where the tipping point happened. And so there--and it is, I admit, it is an extremely complicated model. There are a number of things that go in to try to predict and project what might happen in the future, and there are a lot of assumptions that we have to make, which is why we have 26 years of data now to help us. In the very beginning of credit modeling, it was more difficult when we switched to the Federal Credit Reform Act way of calculating these future costs. This is also something--when you mentioned the banks, this is something that they are going to be faced with the new accounting rules of how they are going to have to calculate their loan loss reserves. But in terms of the subsequent question about the feeding-- the--and correct me if I am misstating, but it is how we partner with other loan program--the other programs within the SBA in regards to the 7(a) loan program. And under my office is also the Office of Performance Management, so we closely tie all the strategies, the priorities of the agency, and as that relates across the different program offices, whether it is capital access or the Office of Entrepreneurial Development, in order to make all of the programs successful, whether it is 7(a), whether it is the 8(a) contracting loan program, in order to be able to achieve the mission of the agency to be able to support small businesses to be able to help them grow and achieve their goals. Ms. DAVIDS. Thank you. I yield back. Chairman KIM. Okay. We are going to try to do two more before we have to run for votes. So I just want to recognize Representative Stauber for questions here for 5 minutes. Mr. STAUBER. Thank you, Mr. Chair. I just have one question. Mr. Gribben, in your testimony, you state that performance assumptions you use over 25 years of historical 7(a) program and the macroeconomic data. But for the cohort composition assumptions you use characteristics, quote, from recent years. Please describe to the Committee why you use two different data sets. Mr. GRIBBEN. We use the historical data in order to be able to understand the performance of the loan based on conditions of, let's say, what unemployment GDP might have been at that time. And we use assumptions for the future to be able to better predict performance of the loans over the future period. So we use past assumptions to help better inform our predictions for the future. Mr. STAUBER. Thank you. That is my only question. I yield back. Chairman KIM. I just wanted to recognize Congressman Crow quickly here before votes. Mr. CROW. Thanks, Mr. Chairman. I will yield to my colleague from New York. Ms. VELAZQUEZ. Let me thank the gentleman for yielding. Mr. Gribben, based on looking at the reestimate data, it appears that SBA's model has been somewhat inaccurate. There have been downward reestimates every year since 2010. Isn't that correct? Yes or no. Mr. GRIBBEN. Yes. Ms. VELAZQUEZ. Okay. So given this, how can you defend raising fees again? Everyone in this room knows that you are going to end with a surplus, just like every year since 2010. Why do we have to play this game, sir? Whose idea is this? Mr. GRIBBEN. This was---- Ms. VELAZQUEZ. Is this your idea or is this OMB? Mr. GRIBBEN. Oh, no, this is completely under the agency. Ms. VELAZQUEZ. Okay. Mr. GRIBBEN. So prior--but if you looked at--prior to when I mentioned that the model changed in 2014, prior to that time, there were large upward reestimates. It was when we changed to take the macroeconomic factors into account that you see the downward reestimates in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013. They didn't exist before. Then if you look at it from the history since 2014, 2014, 2015 had higher reestimates than you see now, because once we made that change to the model, we also fine tuned it. We look at--and we have to look at each---- Ms. VELAZQUEZ. Let me just say, I want every piece of document, every piece of document submitted to the Committee that will justify raising the fees. I will not do anything, no legislation until we are convinced that that is the way to move forward. Let me say this to you, the mission of SBA is to provide resources and lending access to capital, affordable capital to those who cannot get it through traditional means. So the mission of the SBA is not going to be to make profit on the back of small businesses, and that must be clear. I yield back to the gentleman here. Thank you. Mr. CROW. One quick question, and it is regarding the Veteran Entrepreneurs Act program. And I know in the fiscal year 2020 budget request, the SBA says that it intends to offer the fee waivers for the veterans program, but in light of the clear direction that the SBA can implement these or the--the President's budget submission to Congress outlines the positive subsidy, obviously, which is what we are talking about here today for the 7(a) program. How do you think SBA can still offer those waivers under the veterans program? Mr. GRIBBEN. Because we provided the option to achieve zero subsidy. Under the zero-subsidy scenario we can offer the veterans fee waiver. Mr. CROW. So--but the entire budget--obviously, the entire request or the entire hearing today is about the fact that there is a positive subsidy, correct? Mr. GRIBBEN. It is about the options that Congress has in order to achieve zero subsidy or to appropriate money. I view the hearing about the options. Mr. CROW. All right. Mr. Chairman, I yield back. Chairman KIM. Okay. Thank you. Well, one thing is we are looking at these options because of, you know--because of, you know, what we are hearing from your particular administration. So, you know, this is something that we are going to have to look into very carefully. I do want to recess right now for votes. We will come back afterwards, if you don't mind sticking around a little bit longer, as we do have a few other members that look like they might want to ask questions. I just want to make sure they have that. So we will come back in just a little bit. [Recess.] [11:44 a.m.] Chairman KIM. Hi. Good morning. Thank you for your patience and sticking around with us as we wrangled our votes together down there on the House floor. Why don't we just jump right back in and just be able to get started here. I am just going to just briefly introduce the witnesses and then we can start with your remarks there. So our first witness today is Mr. Tony Wilkinson. Mr. Wilkinson is president and CEO of NAGGL, the only national trade association representing the SBA 7(a) lending industry. He has served in this role for more than 25 years and is responsible for working closely with agency executives and the Small Business Committee and ensuring the continued stability and availability of the 7(a) program. Our second witness is Ms. Lynn Ozer. She is the president of the SBA Lending Department at Fulton Bank headquartered in Lancaster, Pennsylvania. She also manages all the SBA lending, which covers my home State of New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, Virginia, Washington, D.C., and 249 office locations. Also, our next witness is Ms. Gail Jansen. She is the vice president of business services and operations at Kinecta Federal Credit Union, where she is currently responsible for all areas of loan origination within business services, has over 25 years in commercial lending experience. And I would like to now yield to our Ranking Member, Mr. Hern, to introduce our final witness. Mr. HERN. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Our next witness is Gordon Gray. Mr. Gray is the director of fiscal policy at the American Action Forum, which is the leader in pro-growth fiscal policies in Washington, D.C., and across the country. Mr. Gray is an expert on budget matters and has previously testified before the House Budget Committee. Prior to this current role, Mr. Gray held senior staff positions in the U.S. Senate, has spent time with the AEI, the American Enterprise Institute. Mr. Gray, we are pleased to have you testify, and we welcome your participation. Chairman KIM. Great. Thank you. Mr. Wilkinson, why don't we start off with you. You are recognized for 5 minutes. STATEMENTS OF TONY WILKINSON, PRESIDENT AND CEO, NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF GOVERNMENT GUARANTEED LENDERS; LYNN G. OZER, PRESIDENT, SBA LENDING, FULTON BANK; GAIL JANSEN, VICE PRESIDENT OF BUSINESS SERVICES AND OPERATIONS, KINECTA FEDERAL CREDIT UNION; AND GORDON GRAY, DIRECTOR OF FISCAL POLICY, AMERICAN ACTION FORUM STATEMENT OF TONY WILKINSON Mr. WILKINSON. Thank you, Chairman Kim, Ranking Member Hern. My name is Tony Wilkinson, and since 1987, I have served as the president and CEO of NAGGL, a national trade association representing lenders and other entities that participate in the SBA 7(a) loan program. Prior to this job, I was an SBA lender for a community bank based in Stillwater, Oklahoma. The President's fiscal year 2020 budget request included what we believe is an unnecessary positive subsidy of $99 million for the 7(a) program. This is a major shift from the program's track record of operating at zero credit subsidy since fiscal year 2005, except during the years covered by the Recovery Act. This subsidy calculation is not a proposal like the rest of the budget request. Congress must react to this calculation. Congress will have to appropriate $99 million or amend the Small Business Act to raise the current fee caps on borrowers and lenders to cover the cost of the program. The President will need to sign into law one of these paths forward by September 30 or the popular 7(a) program will shut down on October 1. But first, we must collectively question the positive subsidy calculation. My plea is that you challenge both OMB and SBA to explain this subsidy estimate in detail. The fiscal year 2020 budget documents provide insufficient justification for an increase in estimated program costs. The proposed subsidy increase does not track with performance data, and the subsidy calculation lacks transparency as neither SBA nor OMB has disclosed the details of their calculation. We say this for three reasons. First, SBA has overestimated the cost of the portfolio year after year for nearly a decade. In the fiscal year 2020 budget, SBA reported for last year a $757 million excess subsidy reserve, meaning the program took money out of borrower and lender pockets and sent that money to the Treasury. Doesn't that sound like a tax, an unauthorized tax? For all programs at the SBA, the overestimation of cost recognized last year totaled almost $1.5 billion, that is with a B, billion dollars. This is not an isolated incident. Since fiscal year 2010, the SBA 7(a) model has overestimated the cost of the program by almost $3.2 billion. This is a staggering amount of money that means nearly a decade of unnecessary fees on small business borrowers and lenders. In fact, Congress has also been overcharged. In the few years when there were congressional appropriations, the fiscal year 2020 budget documents also show significant downward reestimates for those years, meaning that the--many of the appropriation dollars were not necessary. In a series of GAO--in a series of reports, GAO describes a pattern of discrepancies between actual performance and SBA's projected performance, resulting in repeatedly overestimating the cost of the program. One GAO report documents that SBA hired Pricewaterhouse to conduct a study which found the subsidy rate calculation is perceived by SBA to be a tool for gaming the congressional appropriations process. Another GAO report stated they could not determine whether a bias existed in the model by systematically excluding variables to influence the subsidy rate in a particular direction, and SBA could not provide adequate documentation to demonstrate the rationale for the model. These are alarming conclusions. Actual portfolio--actual performance of the portfolio is starkly different than the projected portfolio. For instance, the program's 5-year average recovery rate on defaulted loans, as reported to Congress last December, was 50 percent. In sharp contrast, the fiscal year 2020 budget assumes a projected recovery rate of only 37.29 percent. Why has the subsidy modeling ignored this established trend of steadily increasing recovery rates? Also, in fiscal year 2018, SBA reported a chargeoff rate of 0.51 percent, a historic low. We simply cannot see that there has been a negative shift in the performance of the portfolio. Lastly, we are concerned that the model fails to take into account appropriate assumptions such as recent significant programmatic changes that have improved the performance of the portfolio. There is a troubling pattern in how SBA and OMB model the subsidy cost which GAO has highlighted over multiple administrations for the last 22 years. SBA's preferred method to cover the unnecessary positive subsidy is to raise fees on borrowers and lenders. But without justification, how can we simply accept this projection? Based on the data we can see, there surely must be an error in the fiscal 2020 calculation. Yes, Congress gave the executive branch authority to calculate subsidy cost, but Congress did not give unfettered authority for cost to be calculated without transparency or outside of congressional oversight. I urge you to challenge both SBA and OMB to explain the fiscal year 2020 subsidy model or this program and small business borrowers will suffer the consequences. Congress created the SBA in 1953 to aid, counsel, assist, and protect the interest of small business concerns. Levying an unauthorized tax does not comply with this mission. Thanks for inviting me here today, and I look forward to answering any questions. Chairman KIM. Thank you, Mr. Wilkinson. Ms. Ozer, over to you. You are recognized for 5 minutes. STATEMENT OF LYNN G. OZER Ms. OZER. Thank you, Chairman Kim, Ranking Member Hern, and members of the Subcommittee. I appreciate this opportunity. My name is Lynn Ozer, and I am currently the president of Fulton Bank's SBA Lending Department, where I oversee all aspects of SBA lending in the mid-Atlantic region in the five States that our bank is located. I have believed and trusted in SBA's mission to aid and protect these borrowers for the entirety of my career. However, it is disheartening to see a fiscal year 2020 budget request from the SBA that takes advantage of these small business borrowers. The budget states positive subsidy calculation for the 7(a) program for fiscal year 2020 of $99 million, a marked shift from the program's track record operating at zero subsidy and no cost to the taxpayer. SBA has essentially told Congress that it has a choice, to either appropriate $99 million or hike up fees on borrowers and lenders or the program shuts down on October 1. My first thought as a seasoned lender is to question whether or not there have been any performance issues in the portfolio. Purchase rates are at a near all-time low. Recovery rates are at an all-time high. SBA reports a record low chargeoff rate in 2018. When we see a positive subsidy, you would think that the portfolio would show some signs of worsening, but it does not. SBA has also overestimated the cost of every cohort of loans made for the past 9 fiscal years, which means SBA could have asked for much less from the borrowers and the lenders and still have covered the cost of the program at a zero subsidy. This tells me the current subsidy model used is not working as it should. I urge this Subcommittee to work with OMB and SBA to obtain the details of this subsidy calculation. The subsidy model has always been shrouded in mystery. Lenders are the stewards of this program, and Congress gives the program its authority to exist. Does it make sense that none of us know how the cost of this program is calculated? SBA has made it clear their preferred solution to cover the unnecessary positive subsidy is to hike fees on the borrowers and lenders. This is a tax on small business. Under SBA's proposal, some of my borrowers would have seen a 7 percent increase in fees, others a 16 percent increase, and some borrowers' fees would have doubled. This would mean shrinking access to capital. And the impact to lenders, under the SBA's proposal, the cost of my SBA department would increase by roughly 25 percent just on new loan originations in fiscal year 2020, with that number multiplying itself year over year into the future since these fees are charged on an ongoing basis annually for the rest of the life of the loan. When the costs increase on the lenders, that creates a domino effect, the results of which hurt the small business borrower in the end. The goal is to increase opportunities for small business. The budget request would do just the opposite. It would shrink access to capital, closing the door on many small borrowers and lenders. I also want to take a moment to respond to Mr. Gribben's comment about the portfolio doing worse in good times and his admission that his model does not take lender behavior into account. I am a lender. Lenders administer this loan program. When times are good and when times are bad, my credit policy does not change. This inverse relationship we have with the conventional market speaks to loan volume. When times are good, borrowers have options and our volume may plateau. When times are bad, borrowers have less options and our volume increases. But we are not talking about volume. We are talking about cost. When times are good, my credit committee is not going to allow us to approve riskier loans just to make up volume. Why? We still need to have a portfolio that meets safety and soundness standards for our regulators. SBA lending has certain rules that govern prudence regardless of economic swings, like always requiring a personal guarantee from the borrower, requiring borrowers to have skin in the game, prescribing debt service coverage ratios and collateral requirements. And there is just only so much risk a lender can take. Actual performance does not support their assumption that we make riskier loans in good times. The emphasis on macroeconomic trends seems inappropriate for this highly regulated loan program. Do not simply take these projections at face value, and I ask that you seriously challenge the subsidy rate. Small business borrowers, lenders, and the ability of the 7(a) loan program to serve access to capital needs are dependent on how you respond to this surprising calculation. Thank you. Chairman KIM. Thank you. Let's see, Ms. Jansen, over to you for 5 minutes. STATEMENT OF GAIL JANSEN Ms. JANSEN. Good afternoon, Chairman Kim, Ranking Member Hern, and members of the Subcommittee. My name is Gail Jansen. I am testifying today on behalf of NAFCU. Thank you for the opportunity to share with you our perspective on SBA 7(a) loan program and the potential impacts of the proposed fee structure changes for fiscal year 2020. As the vice president of business services and operations at Kinecta Federal Credit Union, I am responsible for a portfolio of nearly $1 billion in member business loans, which includes nearly $35 million in SBA loans. Business lending is an important aspect of our service to members at Kinecta. A key part of that is our ability to offer SBA 7(a) loans. Kinecta started our business program in 2013. We are a preferred lender with the SBA. We are the number one credit union SBA lender in all of California. Our SBA loans range from a low of $50,000 to a high of $5 million, but the average size of our loans is $250,000. On average, we make about 20 loans a year, and currently, we have 100 SBA loans in our portfolio. The kind of companies that turn to us for SBA loans include small manufacturers, brick-and-mortar retail shops, independent restaurants, and professional service companies. A business owner will apply for an SBA loan with the credit union because they are looking for something different than what the bank can offer. They are often pleasantly surprised that a credit union offers small business loans, and as a result, they are willing to consider us as a viable alternative. Our ability to offer SBA loans allows us to meet the needs of our members, like the one who turned to us in July 2018 with a small, growing residential home remodeling company to refinance existing business debt and provide working capital to support new jobs and projects. At the time of the loan request, the company had only one full-time employee and one part-time employee. The subject debt to be refinanced was originated from an online lender that was charging the business owner an exorbitant interest rate of 44 percent. After underwriting the loan request, Kinecta approved and funded the SBA loan in the amount of $110,000 at an interest rate of 7.75 percent. The refinancing of the business debt resulted in a significant savings for the business owner. As a result, the business has since hired two full-time employees and has begun saving money to purchase commercial real estate. Small businesses like this one are the backbone of our economy and an essential source of jobs. The SBA's loan program serve as an important resource that help credit unions provide small businesses with the vital capital necessary for growth and job creation, in many cases to businesses that would otherwise not be able to obtain financing. There are positives to SBA's overall fiscal year 2020 budget request, such as the increase in the SBA express loan limit from $350,000 to $1 million. However, it was troubling to see the SBA's request to modify its statutory fee structures and potentially increase its fees because of a refinement to its economic modeling. The bottom line is that the fee increases as proposed by the SBA in this budget submission will impact both our small business members and the credit union. SBA's proposed fee structure will make it more expensive for members to get loans greater than $500,000 by increasing the guarantee fee on those loans. For loans greater than $1.5 million, the proposal introduces an even higher new fee rate. It is important to note that the small business member pays the guarantee fee one time, usually at funding. The moneys are often dispersed directly from the loan proceeds so the member does not have a direct out-of-pocket cost at origination. However, the lender, Kinecta in this case, pays an ongoing annual fee for each loan that is originated. This fee is currently 55 basis points. Under the SBA's proposal, the fee will be unchanged for loans up to $1.5 million, but it will increase to 83 basis points for loans over $1.5 million. The SBA proposal will make loans more expensive for lenders like Kinecta. In a high-cost real estate market, such as California and New Jersey, among others, $1.5 million is not a lot when you are talking about commercial real estate. Increasing the costs of these loans to both the small business and the lending institution will likely make it more difficult to get an SBA loan for commercial real estate in higher markets. We urge the SBA and Congress to work together to protect and strengthen the SBA 7(a) program. This includes examining all efforts to avoid the proposed fee increases on SBA's small business loans and the lenders that serve them. In conclusion, the ability for small businesses to borrow and have improved access to capital is vital for job creation. We recognize that maintaining a zero subsidy for the program is important, but we urge you to examine all potential alternative solutions to avoid a fee increase. I thank you for your time and the opportunity to testify before you here today, and I welcome any questions you may have. Chairman KIM. Thank you for your testimony. Mr. Gray, over to you for 5 minutes. STATEMENT OF GORDON GRAY Mr. GRAY. Chairman Kim, Ranking Member Hern, and members of the Committee, I am honored to be before you today to discuss the budgetary considerations of the Small Business Administration's 7(a) loan program. This is an important program that provides access to small business entrepreneurs who otherwise have no recourse to adequate financing in the market, supporting hundreds of thousands of jobs throughout American communities. As a taxpayer-funded program, it should be subject to continuous and rigorous oversight, and I appreciate the Committee's attention to this program in today's hearing. In my testimony, I wish to make three basic observations. Federal Government is a prolific lender, providing guarantees on and direct loans of $4 trillion as of fiscal year 2018. The budgetary treatment of credit programs is somewhat unique in budgeting, adhering to the principles of accrual accounting as set forth in the Federal Credit Reform Act, FCRA, of 1990. FCRA accounting addresses the deficiencies of cash accounting in measuring the cost of credit programs, but necessarily introduces additional complications, some of which animate today's discussion. I will briefly discuss these observations in turn. The Federal Government currently has a combined $4 trillion in credit assistance outstanding as of 2018. In general, the goal of this assistance is to provide credit to borrowers who otherwise would not receive credit at market terms from lenders. The credit assistance takes two forms: direct loans where the Federal Government is the lender or loan guarantees where the government commits taxpayer funds to guarantee private lending. As of fiscal year 2018, the Federal Government has $1.4 trillion in direct loans outstanding and guarantees on $2.6 trillion as of last year. It is loan guarantees that concerns today's hearing, specifically the 7(a) loan program. The 7(a) program provides eligible small businesses with private sector financing with a public guarantee. The program includes several specialized features, but in general, provides up to 75 percent guarantee on loans up to $5 million. The program requires lenders to ensure borrowers demonstrate adequate ability to repay, management ability in equity, among other considerations. Credit is also contingent on borrowers demonstrating that credit is otherwise unavailable at reasonable terms. According to the SBA, the 7(a) loan program supported over 60,000 loans totaling $25.4 billion in fiscal year 2018. The budgetary treatment of this program is prescribed in the Federal Credit Reform Act of 1990 and its amendments. In general, this reform requires recording credit assistance programs in the Federal budget on an accrual basis. Accrual accounting more accurately captures the taxpayer exposure for a given credit program by recognizing the value of the upfront outlay by the taxpayer but also the associated repayment stream, even if it is outside the budget window. This treatment also captures the value of preferential credit terms, such as longer loan maturities or interest deferral. It is important to recognize that this calculation more accurately reflects the totality of the Federal commitment for a given credit program. It also necessarily introduces additional complications. By nature, FCRA requires projecting all associated cash flows for a given loan over its duration. This also requires projecting likely delinquencies, defaults, prepayments, interest rates, and other factors to determine credit subsidy rates. Underpinning a number of these elements are OMB's economic assumptions, which the agency is required to use as part of the calculation. The strength of the economy substantially effects default rates, for example, and a worsening economic outlook, would all else equal, increase the subsidy cost to the Federal Government through higher defaults, among other considerations. The subsidy cost is thus exposed to fluctuations for any of these factors. Those will always persist, however, and measurement uncertainty in is not limited to this program or credit programs generally. Any time a measurement requires projecting into the future, some uncertainty, however, is introduced. Annual reestimates of these programs enhance the estimating process. Since FCRA was enacted, subsidy costs of the 7(a) program have been on net underestimated with a net positive lifetime reestimated subsidy cost. Yet these costs are quite small over the nearly three decades and relative to the overall size of the loan disbursements. It does appear, however, that this net underestimate is driven largely by the effects of economic downturns. Accordingly, it is important to understand the factors that animate these subsidy costs as policymakers consider how to adequately resource this important policy objective while safeguarding taxpayer funds. I believe the Committee's desire to hold this hearing reflects that intention, and I look forward to answering your questions. Chairman KIM. Thank you so much for your testimony. Thank you again to the four of you for coming out here. I just have a few questions and then I will turn it over to the Ranking Member, and we may have some more after that. But, Mr. Wilkinson, I would like to start with you. You know, you have now heard--we have all heard from the SBA's CFO and regarding the data that was used for the subsidy calculation, and I wanted to ask you about your response to that. Was there anything that he said that was new to you, anything that helped shed a little bit more light on their process there? And what are the questions that you have lingering from his testimony? Mr. WILKINSON. Thank you for that question. I have actually got a lot of comments on his testimony. First of all, he talked about tweaking the model in 2014 to accurately reflect program performance. That was his quote. But the reestimates tell a very different story. In fiscal year 2014, we started out at a zero subsidy rate. Now, remember, he said this was the year that they changed their model to more accurately reflect what was going on. The 2014 subsidy rate has now been estimated to be a negative 2.08. So they missed by their own calculation so far of about $359 million. In 2014, if you look at repurchase rates in 2018 versus 2014, our repurchase rate has gone down 35 percent. So the---- Chairman KIM. Between 2014 and---- Mr. WILKINSON. And 2018. So our performance today is much better today than it was in just 2014. And even with the rates in 2014, they had a negative subsidy reestimate of $359 million. In Mr. Gribben's verbal testimony, he did not give one single detailed reason why the subsidy rate increased. Mr. Gribben's comments on future repurchases may not be supported by the SBA's own data risk warehouse. Metrics in projected purchase rates, they have a very sophisticated model that the Office of Capital Access manages that will show a very different number for purchase rates than what is included in the model. So there are a lot of questions in here. It appears that they are ignoring the President's own economic assumptions, and they continue to factor in another Great Recession or another 9/11 end of the model when the President's economic assumptions don't forecast that. They forecast strong GDP and a low unemployment rate. So we are confused as to how we can have an upward subsidy cost need when our performance tells us a very different story. Chairman KIM. Thank you for that. I wanted to turn to Ms. Jansen. I wanted to ask you, in your opinion, would a steady unemployment rate have any effect on the quality of your portfolio, the quality of your borrowers? Ms. JANSEN. Unemployment rate won't really factor in, other than access to capital. That is what we are really looking for as far as SBA goes. Speaking from my perspective with the members who walk into our member service centers and request SBA loans, they want to grow their own business, and in order to do that, they are going to have to have access to capital. Chairman KIM. I appreciate that. Ms. Ozer, I wanted to ask you a similar question to Mr. Wilkinson. I wanted to just hear from you just straightforward, you know, why do you think this subsidy calculation deserves to be challenged? How do you respond to what the CFO said today? Ms. OZER. Listening to what he said means that we have to either go on to appropriations or they have to raise fees. I have been doing this for longer than I want to admit, and I have seen this go--this whole program go through being on appropriations, not being on appropriations, raising fees, lowering fees. And all the instability in the Small Business Administration creates problems for borrowers and lenders and definitely, as Ms. Jansen said, shrinking the access to capital. The biggest problem that I see is the effect that it has on the borrowers, specifically the increase in the cost of fees. The fees for loans under $500,000, they will be the same. But for borrowers between $500,000 and $700,000, the fees increase dramatically. We have a lot of borrowers, in your area actually, that have felt that. The effect on the lenders is that the ongoing fees that we are charged on our loans is going to go up. And whatever happens to cost more money to the lenders, eventually gets put back onto the borrowers, and their fees rise. I have to run a budget and explain to my shareholders, my board of directors, and all my stakeholders why are the costs of this program increasing. And if we look at what Mr. Gribben said, it flies in the face of what our own statistics, given to us from the SBA about how our portfolio and our peers' portfolio performed, that I have been reporting to the Credit Oversight Committee, what they are saying flies in the face of all the actual facts. So it is going to be very difficult for me to explain that. Chairman KIM. Thank you for explaining that to me. So I am going to turn it over to the Ranking Member here for some questions. Mr. HERN. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Mr. Wilkinson, welcome from Oklahoma. It is good to see you. Ms. Ozer and Ms. Jansen, I will tell you that this whole Congress needs more people like you testifying from people who actually experience what is going on with the legislation that has passed and what actually happens. It is so refreshing to hear--even though you are with the majority party here as their witnesses, it is so great to hear you actually talk about what happens out of Congress, and I just so appreciate it. It is so refreshing to hear you all. I wish every committee had folks like you testifying on the realities of what comes out of Congress. Mr. Gray, question for you. And by the way, I chaired a loan committee for 10 years on a bank, so I so appreciate it. It is music. Mr. Gray, do you know any of the requirements surrounding what an agency can and can't use as assumptions for modeling purposes? Mr. GRAY. So as I understand it, the 1997 Balanced Budget Act tried to apply more uniformity to the methodologies that the agencies have. I am aware of the fact that OMB's economic projections are one of those factors that they are required to consider. Mr. HERN. Are agencies provided guidance on how to select their assumptions? Mr. GRAY. Like I said, I believe those--they are given parameters set in statute by, for example, by FCRA and its subsequent amendments, like the 1997 Act, and, the previous witness spoke to some of this, there is some discretion at the agency level as well. Mr. HERN. So we will talk about the discretion. Economic assumptions, are they a major driver for their models? Mr. GRAY. I think the state of the economy performance of-- or the outlook on credit markets, credit conditions certainly underpin their assumptions. Mr. HERN. Because I will tell you, as a member of Budget, where we get to see all the assumptions from both side---- Mr. GRAY. Right. Mr. HERN.--both parties, there isn't a doom and gloom from either party, yet the financial guru from SBA says--appears to think there is. So I would like to get his thinking. Maybe he has a crystal ball the rest of us don't have, because I would be interested. In your testimony, you touched on the reestimate process. Can you share with us how that reestimate process impacts a credit subsidy calculation? Mr. GRAY. Sure. So every year, on an ongoing basis, the agencies do revisit their past calculations, what elements of that may have changed. And so we basically get a performance exam of all of these programs since they were put on an accrual basis under FCRA. In the credit supplement we get, tables 9 and 10, I think, of past performance, and we can see how these were estimated at their inception and then over the lifetime of their performance. And those have been pretty instructive in thinking about how to think about these programs over time and under various economic conditions. Mr. HERN. Thank you, Mr. Gray. Mr. Wilkinson, in your testimony, you state that the subsidy calculation was amended in the past. Can you describe the events in the environment surrounding this amendment? Mr. WILKINSON. Yes, sir. Back in 1997, a similar discussion was ongoing. At some point in time, the agency decided that they had made an error in their calculation and they filed a formal budget amendment adjusting the subsidy rate. Mr. HERN. Who was involved in that, do you remember? Mr. WILKINSON. The Office of Management and Budget and SBA. I would say that the Senate Small Business Committee under Senator Kit Bond at that time was a driving force in getting that done. Mr. HERN. So what was the outcome of that? Mr. WILKINSON. At that particular time, we were on an appropriations so we were able to leverage those appropriation dollars much farther. Mr. HERN. Okay. So was it similar to today's conversation or dissimilar or---- Mr. WILKINSON. It is very similar. GAO has documented this in a series of reports. We have had multiple former SBA employees tell us that the way the system works is OMB dictates to SBA a subsidy rate, and it is SBA's jobs to adjust the assumptions to get to the rate that they have been told to get to. And that is why you saw the Pricewaterhouse report come to the conclusion that the SBA and OMB is gaming the process. Last week, in a Senate Small Business Committee, Mr. Manger from the SBA testified that the macroeconomic assumptions come directly from the Office of Management and Budget and that he has no knowledge what those are, basically, you know, leaving that all to the Office of Management and Budget. So what we have got is a subsidy calculation that is shrouded in mystery. We can't see the details. We don't know how in the world they can say all of a sudden we are going to have a 10 percent spike in our net losses when our performance trends are going exactly the opposite direction. Mr. HERN. Before I close, I would just like to say thanks to each of you again for being here and your honesty. And certainly, I can see in your--when you are reading your testimony that you really have a lot of passion. So thank you so much. Mr. Chairman, I yield back. Chairman KIM. Thank you. I have a few more questions I just want to get into here. Ms. Ozer, back to you. As you were mentioning, you know, you have a sizable footprint in New Jersey. And I am trying to think about this a lot in terms of how it is going to affect the borrowers, how it is going to have a real impact where the rubber hits the road. So I wanted to ask you, how do you think this proposal will impact the extent to which you were able to reinvest in local communities like ours, specifically how exactly would increased fees affect their desire to apply for 7(a) loans and your ability to provide more loans? Ms. OZER. Thank you for your question. Specifically, I can give you an example. We just did a loan to a trucking company in Robbinsville, New Jersey, right outside of Bordentown. This business has been growing tremendously. With online businesses, trucking and delivery is just an exploding industry. They were renting space to keep all their trucks. They needed to buy the building they were in because their lease was up, and they wanted to buy it as well as the adjacent property, and the cost was over $3 million. They put a substantial amount of money down, and we made them a loan. Their fees for that loan of $2.9 million were--let me see. I have that here actually--$81,000. The company, under the new fee structure, would be paying an additional $5,500, $5,578.11 to be exact. That money could be used for them to buy another truck, hire another driver, expand their business in many other ways, instead of having to pay for the subsidy rate or whatever in additional fees. How that affects us, when we get a loan this big, our cost to this program would increase by 25 percent on an ongoing basis. Having that loan on our books, that larger loan, that is real estate secured, as opposed to some of the very small loans that aren't real estate secured and may not perform as well help balance risk. If we can't make these larger loans because of the cost to the bank and the cost to the borrower, we will have less capital to invest in other areas in New Jersey. We have to make a certain amount of money to keep my department going. And if our infrastructure and our efficiency ratio goes up, my bank directors and so forth are going to say to me, what is going on here. You are not making enough money. And they are going to cut the amount of staff that I have and my ability to provide ongoing community investment to projects like this. The smaller loans in your area that are $300,000, they don't pay nearly as much fees and their fees won't be affected. But if we can't balance out our investments with larger loans and smaller loans, we are going to have to have--there is going to have to be give somewhere. And who is going to pay for it but the small business borrowers. They are going to have less access to capital. Chairman KIM. A lot of my concerns here. That is very helpful, because I always want to make sure that we understand, you know, the tangible impacts, really understand what that is going to translate to in terms of the borrowers and small businesses. And as I have talked to a lot of small business owners, they talk to me about the importance of having that predictability for them to be able to do planning, you know, that they are dealing with razor-thin margins here, and, you know, of their ability to plan not just 1 year out but 10 years out in the growth, it really depends on that predictability. And my concerns here are certainly about what is going to happen given this, you know, fiscal year 2020 structure. But the lack of transparency and the lack of understanding of what is going into this concerns me about if we are going to be right back at here a year from now or 2 years from now and just, you know, what is going to be happening going forward. As we understand that, you know, we are--in many ways, it looks like, from what you are saying, that we are, you know, forcing or we will potentially be forcing small businesses and the borrowers into riskier loan products, and that is something that is going to be, you know, very damaging going forward. I wanted to ask, on that front, what are you hearing from borrowers in terms of their reactions to, you know, what has been happening here with the 7(a) and these developments? Are they understanding sort of the magnitude in which this is going to affect them and, you know, affect their abilities to be able to have access to capital? Please, anyone. Ms. JANSEN. Honestly, most of the borrowers that we deal with at the credit union don't really understand an SBA loan. When they come in and they ask for a business loan, we have referred them out to the SBDC to get their financials together to answer those questions, but there is an education process for a lot of the smaller people that we deal with, our members. You know, as a nonprofit, we want to help them build their business. They come to us and they trust that we are going to guide them in the right direction. So honestly, most of the borrowers that we deal with, they don't understand how this would affect them. Ms. OZER. As soon as they get here, as soon as they get to us, though, they quickly understand. When they hear the amount of the fees that they are paying and the fact that, you know, let's hurry up and get this in because if this passes on October 1, this is going to cost you twice as much money as it would if we do it now. I mean, then they will understand the urgency. And what they can do with an additional $5,500, it doesn't sound like a lot to a lot of people, but for small businesses, that could be a large part of their cash cycle. They could pay payroll for another month and it makes a huge difference and it has a huge impact. But I agree with Ms. Jansen, you know, they don't necessarily understand the workings, but they do trust that the bank is looking out for them and putting them into the proper product. I mean, we as a commercial lending institution offer them conventional financing. They only come to my department when my bank is not going to be able to do it. So they are already sort of in a difficult spot, and then you tell them how much it is, and they feel like they are getting hammered over the head. But the problem for us is exactly what you said, and it is not just the borrowers who have to plan; it is banks and their lending institutions that have to plan. And we have to budget and we have to know how much this program is going to cost so we can allocate human resources to making more of these loans and doing outreach into the communities that need these loans the most. And we can't afford to add personnel if we are going to keep paying fees to the government. Chairman KIM. That is right. And the same way that the borrowers turn to you and trust you about this analysis and understanding what they are going to need to do, they should also be trusting the SBA. They should be trusting us here in Congress to do our due diligence, that we recognize that the mission of the SBA is to help small businesses across this country, make sure that they can get a leg up, that they have a fair shot at being able to run a successful business and be able to grow. You know, the mission was not to create a revenue stream for the government on the backs of small businesses. Instead, everything should be geared towards what it is that we can to do to be able to help them. And what I assure you and assure you--this Committee on both sides of the aisle, we are committed to that. We are committed to ensuring that SBA stays true to the mission of helping small businesses across this country, giving them a fair shot, giving them a chance to really be able to succeed on this front. I wanted to ask a question, I wanted to ask this panel a question, a question that I asked the CFO, which is, do you think it will be the benefit to this Committee and for us here in Congress to hear from OMB on this? Mr. WILKINSON. I do. I think that is where the answers are, based on what we hear from former SBA employees, that is OMB and their macroeconomic assumptions that are driving the subsidy calculation. So I think it would be critical that you hear from OMB. Hopefully, we can get some straight answers. Chairman KIM. Is that the idea for every--does everyone else share that conclusion? Ms. OZER. I agree wholeheartedly. Chairman KIM. Does anyone disagree? Mr. GRAY. No. Chairman KIM. Well, no, thank you for that and your expert thoughts on this. I did want to just open up one last time, if there is anything else that anyone wanted to add for the record before this Committee before we start to move to conclusions. Mr. WILKINSON. The performance of the portfolio remains strong. We have actually had a very good working relationship with the Office of Capital Access at SBA. Over the last several years, we have worked hand-in-hand to improve the performance of portfolio, tightening up program parameters where they needed to be. I think that is reflected in the performance of the program. Unfortunately, we now have a subsidy calculation that does not reflect reality. There are some ulterior motives that we don't see, and it is not borne out by the statistics in front of us. So I beg this Committee to dig deep into the subsidy calculation and find out what is going on. We need the details. There has got to be a paper trail somewhere of how these assumptions are come to and put into the model. I heard Mr. Gribben talk about all the auditors. From our understandings, they are checking the spreadsheets. They are not determining what the inputs are into the model. That is vastly different. We need to figure out what the inputs are and how those were derived. So there is a lot of detailed information that needs to be looked at. Thank you. Chairman KIM. Anyone else? Ms. JANSEN. Yeah. I would definitely like to dovetail on that and say, you know, we support examining every available option to avoid the fee increases, not passing them on to the small businesses, crippling their abilities, and passing them on to the small lenders, you know, large or small lenders. We have got to make this capital available to increase small businesses' opportunities. Chairman KIM. Great. Thank you. Well, I appreciate, again, your time to be able to come and traveling here and be able to inform us and be able to help us do our jobs and make sure we are looking out for small businesses here. We know that the 7(a) program is the economy's main vehicle for entrepreneurs to be able to access affordable capital on reasonable and fair terms. It is also an engine of job creation responsible for supporting over 540,000 jobs in 2018 alone; therefore, preserving the integrity of 7(a) is a top priority of this Committee. And any proposals that threaten that integrity, especially by raising fees on small business borrowers, will be reviewed with the highest degree of scrutiny. And I certainly look forward to working with my colleagues on both sides of the aisle. And I think you, you know, certainly heard that the Ranking Member and myself are very much on the same page in making sure that we are going to get all the information that we need to be able to make an assessment about this and understand whether it is fair. You certainly heard the words from the Chairman of-- Chairwoman of the Committee of the whole that this is something that certainly has our attention and that we will be very focused on going forward. This is just going to be the initial steps. As I mentioned in the panel one, very much factfinding at this point. We certainly will be, if you don't mind, calling upon you again, I am sure, to be able to get your thoughts as we move forward and get more information about what is best. So I certainly feel passionate about this. I certainly want to make sure we are looking out for small businesses and also understanding on the lenders side, you know, how this is affecting your work and your ability to plan, your ability to be successful, which we certainly want to see done. So we are going to work on both sides of the aisle, find a solution that will protect small business borrowers and the 7(a) program. I am going to ask unanimous consent that members have 5 legislative days to submit statements and supporting material for the record. And without objection, it is so ordered. And if there is no further business to come before the Committee, we are adjourned. Thank you. [Whereupon, at 12:29 p.m., the Subcommittee was adjourned.] A P P E N D I X [GRAPHICS NOT AVAILABLE IN TIFF FORMAT] [all]