[House Hearing, 116 Congress] [From the U.S. Government Publishing Office] THE HISTORIC AMERICAN ALLIANCE WITH EUROPE ======================================================================= HEARING BEFORE THE SUBCOMMITTEE ON EUROPE, EURASIA, ENERGY, AND THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE COMMITTEE ON FOREIGN AFFAIRS HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES ONE HUNDRED SIXTEENTH CONGRESS FIRST SESSION __________ MARCH 26, 2019 __________ Serial No. 116-20 __________ Printed for the use of the Committee on Foreign Affairs [GRAPHIC NOT AVAILABLE IN TIFF FORMAT] Available: http://www.foreignaffairs.house.gov/, http://docs.house.gov, or http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/ __________ U.S. GOVERNMENT PUBLISHING OFFICE 35-613PDF WASHINGTON : 2019 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Publishing Office, http://bookstore.gpo.gov. For more information, contact the GPO Customer Contact Center, U.S. Government Publishing Office. Phone 202-512-1800, or 866-512-1800 (toll-free). E-mail, [email protected]. COMMITTEE ON FOREIGN AFFAIRS ELIOT L. ENGEL, New York, Chairman BRAD SHERMAN, California MICHAEL T. McCAUL, Texas, Ranking GREGORY W. MEEKS, New York Member ALBIO SIRES, New Jersey CHRISTOPHER H. SMITH, New Jersey GERALD E. CONNOLLY, Virginia STEVE CHABOT, Ohio THEODORE E. DEUTCH, Florida JOE WILSON, South Carolina KAREN BASS, California SCOTT PERRY, Pennsylvania WILLIAM KEATING, Massachusetts TED S. YOHO, Florida DAVID CICILLINE, Rhode Island ADAM KINZINGER, Illinois AMI BERA, California LEE ZELDIN, New York JOAQUIN CASTRO, Texas JIM SENSENBRENNER, Wisconsin DINA TITUS, Nevada ANN WAGNER, Missouri ADRIANO ESPAILLAT, New York BRIAN MAST, Florida TED LIEU, California FRANCIS ROONEY, Florida SUSAN WILD, Pennsylvania BRIAN FITZPATRICK, Pennsylvania DEAN PHILLPS, Minnesota JOHN CURTIS, Utah ILHAN OMAR, Minnesota KEN BUCK, Colorado COLIN ALLRED, Texas RON WRIGHT, Texas ANDY LEVIN, Michigan GUY RESCHENTHALER, Pennsylvania ABIGAIL SPANBERGER, Virginia TIM BURCHETT, Tennessee CHRISSY HOULAHAN, Pennsylvania GREG PENCE, Indiana TOM MALINOWSKI, New Jersey STEVE WATKINS, Kansas DAVID TRONE, Maryland MIKE GUEST, Mississippi JIM COSTA, California JUAN VARGAS, California VICENTE GONZALEZ, Texas Jason Steinbaum, Staff Director Brendan Shields, Republican Staff Director ------ Subcommittee on Europe, Eurasia, Energy, and The Environment WILLIAM KEATING, Massachusetts, Chairman ABIGAIL SPANBERGER, Virginia ADAM KINZINGER, Illinois, Ranking GREGORY MEEKS, New York Member ALBIO SIRES, New Jersey JOE WILSON, South Carolina THEODORE DEUTCH, Florida ANN WAGNER, Missouri DAVID CICILLINE, Rhode Island JIM SENSENBRENNER, Wisconsin JOAQUIN CASTRO, Texas FRANCIS ROONEY, Florida DINA TITUS, Nevada BRIAN FITZPATRICK, Pennsylvania SUSAN WILD, Pennsylvania GREG PENCE, Indiana DAVID TRONE, Maryland RON WRIGHT, Texas JIM COSTA, California MIKE GUEST, Mississippi VICENTE GONZALEZ, Texas TIM BURCHETT, Tennessee Gabrielle Gould, Staff Director C O N T E N T S ---------- Page MATERIALS SUBMITTED FOR THE RECORD Executive Summary presented from Representative Cicilline........ 5 WITNESSES Burns, Nicholas, Roy and Barbara Goodman Family Professor of the Practice of Diplomacy and International Relations, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University............... 16 Wormuth, Christine, Director, International Security and Defense Policy Center, Rand Corporation;............................... 25 Brands, Hal, Henry A. Kissinger Distinguished Professor, School of Advanced International Studies, Johns Hopkins University, and Senior Fellow, Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments.................................................... 34 Conley, Heather, Senior Vice President, Europe, Eurasia, and the Arctic, and Director, Europe Program, Center for Strategic and International Studies.......................................... 42 APPENDIX Hearing Notice................................................... 65 Hearing Minutes.................................................. 66 Hearing Attendance............................................... 67 THE HISTORIC AMERICAN ALLIANCE WITH EUROPE TUESDAY, MARCH 26, 2019 House of Representatives, Subcommittee on Europe, Eurasia, Energy, and the Environment, Committee on Foreign Affairs, Washington, DC The subcommittee met, pursuant to notice, at 2:45 p.m., in Room 2172, Rayburn House Office Building, Hon. William Keating (chairman of the subcommittee) presiding. Mr. Keating [presiding]. The hearing will come to order. The committee is meeting today to hear testimony on an historic American alliance with Europe. Without objection, all the members will have 5 days to submit statements, questions, extraneous materials for the record, subject to the length limitation in the rules. Mr. Keating. I will now make a brief opening statement, and then, we will proceed to the hearing. I just want to thank the witnesses and apologize for the fact we have these nasty things called roll calls, and they occur from time to time. But I think the interruptions are over, I hope. I would like to welcome Ranking Member Kinzinger who is here with us, as well as Representative Cicilline, and we may be joined by other members as their interrupted schedules allow. A generation ago, the ties the United States had with European nations were valued. They were hard-earned. They were part of the American DNA, our history, our personal heritage. Like so many of us, my grandparents were Europeans who became Americans. In times of happiness, we celebrate. We renew this relationship with uniquely Americanized holidays like the recently observed St. Patrick's Day, something very special to me; Columbus Day; our own version of Bastille Day. In times that are more poignant, we observe shared sacrifices and loss, Memorial Day, Veterans Day, and personal loss. My own uncle was killed defending democracy on French soil. Perhaps it is the fact that this relationship was so ingrained that we saw no need to share this with following generations. However, in conversations I have had with our counterparts on both sides of the Atlantic, they reflect the need to remember and, more importantly, to renew this relationship. One cannot help but be profoundly moved visiting the monuments at Normandy to see, even to this day, homes in the area displaying both French and American flags. The alliances we forged with our European partners during and after World War II were a testament to the brutally hard-learned lessons that we cannot escape what is going on in the rest of the world. Instead, we learned that the best way to ensure our security at home is to promote peace and stability abroad. As a result, America committed to supporting a Europe that is whole, free, and at peace, and to working closely with our Western allies to define the rules and institutions that would hold nations accountable for respecting shared values and norms. Through these commitments, we would work to ensure that future generations would never witness the same terror and carnage of their forebearers. The United States invested heavily in economic terms such as through the Marshall Plan, but also in military and leadership terms, to make sure these institutions would hold. And to this day, we continue to benefit tremendously as a result. The Western alliance set the rules for the trade of goods and services, giving American businesses access to more predictable and profitable opportunities around the world. In fact, one-fifth of our trade today is with Europe. We also achieved a level of collective military strength that has since World War II, deterred another major attack on the U.S. by a foreign government. Even when we were attacked on 9/11, our allies came to our defense and triggered NATO's Article 5. Since then, of the more than 3,500 men and women serving in coalition forces in Afghanistan, nearly one-third were not Americans. By coming together to forge institutions and rules grounded in our shared values of freedom, democracy, rule of law, and the entrepreneurial spirit, we have worked together to ensure that we could live in relative peace, security, and prosperity for nearly a century now. We are here today because we find ourselves again in uncertain times, facing grave threats to our security, and we cannot afford to forget why we committed to our alliance with Europe. Today, there are renewed threats from nuclear weapons, not only in Asia, from North Korea, but in Europe from Russia, and possibly, also, from Iran, if they, too, decide to pull out of the nuclear deal. The threat from terrorism is also not over. And while we can agree or disagree over the causes, climate is already affecting our military readiness, and there are estimates that effects from climate change could cost our economy 10 percent of GDP by the end of the century. Further, Putin has aggressively pursued hybrid warfare and tactics designed to undermine the very pillars of our security and our democracy and democratic alliances. And China has embarked on a strategy to reshape the global economy to its benefit at our expense. Automation and new technologies are also rapidly changing. They are changing our work force and our economy, and what it means to go to school and get a job, so the next generation is better off than their parents were. We can try to face all these threats and challenges alone. However, there has not been a single instance in U.S. history where we successfully did it alone. Rather, history teaches us that we are stronger when our allies are stronger and we are working in lockstep together against common threats and adversaries. Any actions or rhetoric, therefore, that weakens our allies and our alliances with them, is against our national security interest. We must continue to strengthen our capabilities and cement ever-closer ties with our European partners, and, in turn, embrace the same from each other and every one of them. The greatest difference-maker we have--and when I say ``we,'' I mean both the United States and Europe--the greatest difference-maker we have versus China or Russia is that we have this historically unprecedented coalition, and they do not. Our European friends and partners, our NATO and non-NATO allies, the EU, and our joint multilateral institutions have been synonymous with the American prosperity and security, and that continues unchanged today. So, I would like to thank our witnesses for joining us for this important discussion during our very first hearing this year of this subcommittee. And I will turn now to the ranking member, Mr. Kinzinger, for his opening statement. Mr. Kinzinger. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. And thank you all for being here on the first hearing for this subcommittee. I could not think of a better topic to discuss. This is an issue that unites us all, and I think that is important to know. Since the end of the Second World War, America and European resolve has formed the cornerstone of national security policy for the post-war order. Through our partnership with European nations, we have successfully defeated communism, halted genocide in the Balkans, countered threats from terrorism, defended human rights around the world, and maintained cohesion with our like-minded democratic partners. While we no longer face the same existential threat posed by the Soviet Union, Western resolve and stability has helped to maintain peace in a world drowning with strawmen and in chaos. One of my growing concerns is our European allies continue to be reliant on oil and gas from Russian strawman Vladimir Putin who is using energy security to weaken our alliance. That is why I introduced, with Chairman Keating, H.R. 1616, the European Energy Security and Diversification Act, which last night passed the House with overwhelming bipartisan support. We know that the Russians are using energy as a weapon against our allies, and this bill reassures Europe and shows America's willingness to help our transatlantic partners in their energy growth. Sometimes it seems like our enthusiasm, however, that we have in the United States for NATO is not always matched in Europe. I think Europe needs to step up in many cases, whether it is on their military spending, whether it is on a lean- forward attitude, or understanding, in fact, that they are on the front lines and, frankly, have the most to lose of any hostilities between Russia or any hostilities with terror or, frankly, the new cold war with China that is occurring even in Eastern Europe. Sometimes Europe comes across as tired. And I think if anybody needs to not be, it is Europe because they are on the front lines of this. There are other challenges that we still have to address. There is a genocide in Syria that, despite a brief cessation on hostilities, I think is going to continue to get worse. We have the issue with Huawei and China, and we have allies that sometimes go to the lowest bidder, but put themselves in great harm and great possibility of harm by buying Chinese technology. And we have a new cold war with China, as I mentioned. And I think in many cases in the United States we have politicized what we spend on the military and made it a partisan issue, when, in fact, our underinvestment in the military is the reason that we now have parity, which we should never have. We have parity with some of our near-peer competitors like China and Russia. So, all these are very important. These are a lot of issues that unite us. But I look forward to asking the questions of our panel today. With that, I will give back 2 minutes and 20 seconds. Mr. Keating. Well, I would like to thank the ranking member. That is quite generous and unusual in Congress to give back that time. And I have just cut into half of it by thanking him. [Laughter.] Our other members have the opportunity, if they so desire, to give a 1-minute opening statement as well. And I would like to go to Representative Cicilline from Rhode Island. Mr. Cicilline. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. And I would like to thank you and Ranking Member Kinzinger for calling this hearing, so that we can have an opportunity to discuss one of the most important relationships in the world, the transatlantic alliance. I would also like to thank our witnesses for being here and for their extraordinary public service. The partnership between Europe and the United States is an enduring alliance. It is a community based on a shared set of democratic values. It is a partnership that has fostered unprecedented peace and prosperity in Europe and the United States since the end of World War II. It is an alliance to celebrate and one we must continue to adapt for the future. As we gather today, we must be clear-eyed about the challenges to the transatlantic alliance and we must be proactive on what Congress can do to shore up this critical bulwark. In Europe itself, the strength of the alliance is being tested by Brexit, the rise of populism in Europe, alarming antisemitism, and concerning democratic backsliding in places like Hungary and Poland. Here at home, our own President poses one of the greatest challenges to transatlantic relationships. And I want to commend Ambassador Burns and Ambassador Doug Lute for your excellent report on ``NATO at 70''. I ask unanimous consent that that be made part of the record. Mr. Keating. Without objection. Mr. Cicilline. Thank you. [The information referred to follows:] [GRAPHICS NOT AVAILABLE IN TIFF FORMAT] Mr. Cicilline. It is a thoughtful analysis of the current state of the alliance and roadmap for its future. The report warns, and I quote, ``President Donald Trump is regarded widely in NATO capitals as the alliance's most urgent and often most difficult problem.'' End quote. This is an extraordinary statement. NATO, an alliance founded by the United States and our closest allies in great part to defend the United States, now sees the President of the United States as a threat. Incredible. Today, I want to send a clear message to our European allies. The United States is committed to our partnerships with Europe, and Congress will continue to support the transatlantic alliance, as we stand together to face new threats to democracy, peace, and global stability. And I thank you, Mr. Chairman, and I yield back. Mr. Keating. Thank you, Representative. Now no one else wants to have any opening statement. So, I would like to introduce our witnesses and thank them for their presence here today. Ambassador Nicholas Burns is the Roy and Barbara Goodman Family Professor of the Practice of Diplomacy and International Relations at the Harvard Kennedy School of Government. During his distinguished career as a member of the Foreign Service, Ambassador Burns served as Undersecretary for Political Affairs at the Department of State, as well as U.S. Ambassador to NATO. Not unimportantly, he resides in Massachusetts and spends a great deal of time in the wonderful community of Westport. Ms. Christine Wormuth is the Director of the RAND International Security and Defense Policy Center. She previously served as Undersecretary of Defense for Policy at the Department of Defense, and prior to that, as Deputy Undersecretary of Defense for Strategy, Plans, and Forces; Special Assistant to the President; Senior Director for Defense at the National Security Council, and Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary for Homeland Defense. Dr. Hal Brands is the Henry A. Kissinger Distinguished Professor of Global Affairs at the Johns Hopkins School for Advanced International Studies, and a Senior Fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. He previously served as Special Assistant to the Secretary of Defense for Strategic Planning, and as a leader writer for the Commission on the National Defense Strategy for the United States. Finally, Ms. Heather Conley is a Senior Vice President for Europe, Eurasia, and the Arctic, and Director of the Europe Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Previously, Ms. Conley served as Deputy Assistant Secretary at the Department of State's Bureau of European and Eurasian Affairs. We appreciate all of you for being here today and look forward to the testimony. Please limit, although we are not going to hold a clock over your head, testimony to the vicinity of 5 minutes. And without objection, any of your written statements will be made part of the record. I will start with Ambassador Burns for his statement. STATEMENT OF NICHOLAS BURNS, ROY AND BARBARA GOODMAN FAMILY PROFESSOR OF THE PRACTICE OF DIPLOMACY AND INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS, JOHN F. KENNEDY SCHOOL OF GOVERNMENT, HARVARD UNIVERSITY Mr. Burns. Mr. Chairman, Ranking Member Kinzinger, thank you very much for the pleasure of being here. And, Mr. Chairman, as you said, I am happy to be here as one of your constituents from Westport, Massachusetts. I have submitted my testimony for the record. I just have three points in this short presentation. First, thank you for doing this. Thank you for focusing on what does unite us, as the ranking member said. We believe in NATO and we believe in the European Union. And if you think about it, they are the cornerstones of the democratic West. They have become that, the U.S. relationship with the European Union on economics and on political affairs, and on climate change, and our NATO alliance. NATO prevailed in the cold war. And when communism collapsed, in the words of President George H.W. Bush, who was a great transatlanticist, we found a Europe ``whole, free and at peace''. And that was a tremendous accomplishment for the United States. And the U.S. and the EU and Canada, correspondingly, created unparalleled prosperity on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean. We learned a lot of lessons over the last 70 years. NATO's anniversary, of course, is next Thursday. April 4th of next week will be the 70th anniversary of the creation of the alliance. We learned that engagement with the world, and our leadership in it, strengthens the United States. And the major insight that the founders had, Truman and Eisenhower, Acheson and Dulles, Republicans and Democrats, was that, to defend the United States at home, we have to be deployed overseas. We have to be in Europe in alliance with the Europeans, and that is how we have kept the peace and great power relationships since the Second World War. That is my first point. My second point is that, much I think to everyone's regret, certainly mine, much of what we have achieved may be at risk, as President Trump has belittled and, in my view, weakened NATO, and he has branded the European Union as a foe of the United States, the first President to do that. Congressman Cicilline mentioned the report that Ambassador Doug Lute and I have just authored on ``NATO at 70,'' which we term ``an alliance in crisis''. We say there that NATO's largest problem is that, for the first time in its history, it lacks a strong, principled voice in the White House, in the American Presidency. We have always had Presidents, Republican and Democratic, who believe in NATO. And right now, we have a President who has failed to commit clearly and unequivocally that he will back up an Article 5 scenario on attack, a threat of attack, against one of our allies. He has also failed to lead the alliance in responding to President Putin's interference in the American election in 2016 and the Dutch, French, and German elections of 2017. And I think most importantly, he has become a constant critique of the small ``d'' democratic leaders, Angela Merkel, Emmanuel Macron, Theresa May in Europe, while he has embraced some of the anti-democratic populist leaders like Viktor Orban in Hungary. We hope, I certainly hope, that Congress can right the balance. You did at the Munich Security Conference on a bipartisan basis, and there are bills in Congress that would reaffirm our Article 5 commitment, which I certainly believe Congress should act upon. Third and finally, this is not just yesterday's story. There was an op-ed in The Wall Street Journal this morning essentially saying NATO was a great story, but it is yesterday's story. This is about our future, because we cannot preserve a democratic, united, peaceful Europe without NATO in it. We are not going to have partners to fight in the anti-ISIS coalition, which has been very successful under both President Trump and President Obama's leadership, without Europe. They are fighting with us in the Horn of Africa. They are fighting with us, as you know, in West Africa. They are important to us on climate change as a potential partner as we re-enter--I hope we will--the climate change agreements in the future. They are important to us on Iran. And finally, I would say, we are going to fight two big battles with the authoritarian powers in the years ahead. One is the battle of ideas. The Russians and Chinese believe that their big idea, central planning, one political party, denial of the human and civil rights of a population, that that is the way forward, and they are saying that. That is Xi Jinping and Putin's message. We need to defend our Western catalyst, rule- of-law societies. The United States and Europe have to be in that together. That is a first big battle. The second is the battle for technological predominance in our military with the Chinese. And that maybe is the most important for our future, that we retain technological military superiority. It is at risk. We need Europe and our East Asian allies to compete with the Chinese. So, we are tomorrow's alliance, not just yesterday's alliance. Thank you very much. [The prepared statement of Mr. Burns follows:] [GRAPHICS NOT AVAILABLE IN TIFF FORMAT] Mr. Keating. Ms. Wormuth. STATEMENT OF CHRISTINE WORMUTH, DIRECTOR, INTERNATIONAL SECURITY AND DEFENSE POLICY CENTER, RAND CORPORATION Ms. Wormuth. Chairman Keating, Ranking Member Kinzinger, members of the committee, thank you for this hearing and for the opportunity to be here. Our cooperation with the countries of Europe is based on our shared values. This is picking up on something Ambassador Burns just said, our shared belief in democracy, in individual liberty, and the rule of law. And we have shared a common purpose with Europe to protect and advance these values. And I saw that time and time again in my government career, how important it is to work with our European allies and partners. I wanted to just give a few examples this afternoon of some of the benefits of the transatlantic relationship, looking at three different periods: the post-cold war period, the moments after the 9/11 attack, and then, the era we are in now, and will be in, an era of strategic competition. Four decades of close cooperation with the Europeans during the cold war ended with the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 and the collapse of the Soviet Union just 2 years later. We immediately began working with Western Europe on Germany's reunification within NATO and the larger goal of building a Europe whole and free. We and our European allies focused on engaging the former Warsaw Pact countries as well as the former Soviet Republics, working to help them transition and stabilize. Through programs like NATO's Partnership for Peace, the SEED Act, and others, NATO nations helped these countries emerge from communism. Many of them eventually joined NATO, and many others also joined the European Union. And the work that we did during that period made both sides of the transatlantic relationship safer and more prosperous. After al-Qaeda attacked us on September 11th, 2001, Europe again showed their solidarity. NATO invoked the Article 5 collective defense pledge for the first and only time in its history. European nations fought with us in Afghanistan from the earliest days, losing more than a thousand military personnel on the battlefield. Under the NATO umbrella, many of the European countries are still with us in Afghanistan today. Some of our European allies also joined us in Iraq, fighting alongside our military, training Iraqi security forces, and working to rebuild Iraqi institutions. And then, in the summer of 2014, when the Islamic State seized territory in Iraq, many Europeans joined us in the anti- Isis coalition. Some joined the air campaign or contributed special operations forces. Others provided trainers on the ground, and still others gave weapons to the Kurdish peshmerga, and the Iraqi security forces. Many Europeans also provided much-needed reconstruction funding. Ending the physical caliphate, which just happened in the last few days, in Iraq and Syria would have taken much longer and cost much more without the support from our European allies and partners. Our close relationship with Europe has given us basing and access rights that would help us not only defend Europe, if we had to, but also help us defend our own interests far from our shores. The network of American bases we have in the UK, Germany, Italy, Spain, Greece, and Turkey are strategic assets that help us respond more quickly, whether it is to conduct non-combatant evacuations, provide humanitarian assistance, or respond more quickly to crises. It is also important to note we have cooperated with Europe on a range of non-military challenges. In 2013, several European nations helped with the destruction of Syrian chemical weapons. During the 2014 Ebola crisis in West Africa, the UK and France sent military personnel, and the EU contributed substantial financial resources to the countries fighting the disease. As Ambassador Burns says, the Europeans also worked with us to negotiate the nuclear agreement with Iran and the Paris Climate Agreement. And although the United States has withdrawn from both of those agreements, the Europeans have stayed in both. Now, as we look to this new period of competition, Europe continues to help us pursue our strategic goals. They have been our closest partners in pushing back against Russian violations of sovereignty. For the past 5 years, together we have maintained sanctions against Russia because of its aggression in Ukraine. And standing together, the United States and 24 European nations expelled 115 Russian diplomats in response to the brazen chemical weapons attack on the Skripals. President Putin seems intent on undermining the rules-based order that the United States and Europe worked so hard to build all these many years. Preventing that outcome is going to require us to work closely with Europe and NATO. We have taken a number of measures already to shore up deterrence, including forward deployment of multinational battle groups in Poland and each of the Baltic States. Motivated substantially by the need to deter Russia, many NATO members are increasing their defense spending. A majority of them will be on target to meet the 2 percent goal by 2024. And although several European countries absolutely need to spend more on defense, the increasingly fraught debate over burden-sharing runs the risk of overshadowing the many benefits of the transatlantic relationship. I would just close by saying, looking ahead, the rise of China will likely be the most important geopolitical challenge for the foreseeable future. Our principal advantage in that competition, as the chairman has said, are our alliances with Asia and Europe, and it is one we cannot afford to jettison. So, just as we have worked together on security in Europe, we need to work closely with Europe today to form common political, economic, and security approaches to China. Thank you. [The prepared statement of Ms. Wormuth follows:] [GRAPHICS NOT AVAILABLE IN TIFF FORMAT] Mr. Keating. Thank you, Ms. Wormuth. Dr. Brands. STATEMENT OF HAL BRANDS, HENRY A. KISSINGER DISTINGUISHED PROFESSOR, SCHOOL OF ADVANCED INTERNATIONAL STUDIES, JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY, AND SENIOR FELLOW, CENTER FOR STRATEGIC AND BUDGETARY ASSESSMENTS Mr. Brands. Mr. Chairman, Ranking Member Kinzinger, distinguished members, thank you for having me. I will jump right in, in the interest of brevity. The modern transatlantic relationship anchored by NATO emerged after World War II during the early cold war, and the creation of NATO, in particular, marked a historic departure in U.S. policy that was rooted in a threefold logic. It reflected a realization that America had a profound interest in shaping a favorable balance of power in Europe, and that persistent U.S. diplomatic and military engagement was the only way of doing so. It reflected the idea that only a U.S. security guarantee could provide the reassurance necessary to generate economic recovery and prosperity and protect democratic institutions in Europe. And finally, the U.S. commitment was meant to suppress historical rivalries between Germany and its neighbors, and thereby, facilitate European economic and political integration. Over the subsequent decades, the U.S. role within NATO and the alliance itself have evolved considerably, but for generations that relationship has produced a range of critical benefits, not just abstract global benefits, but concrete benefits for the United States. First, NATO has significantly increased America's military punching power. During the cold war, European forces were vital to maintaining something like a balance of power vis-a-vis the Warsaw Pact. Since the cold war, NATO countries have made significant contributions to every major U.S. military intervention. America almost never goes to war alone, and a key reason for that is that it can draw on the support of European allies. For decades, the U.S. relationship with NATO has also provided access to bases, logistical facilities, and strategic real eState that make it far easier to project American power. Second, the relationship with NATO provides geostrategic influence and global stability. NATO binds some of the richest countries in the world to the United States. It, thereby, helps us maintain a significant overbalance of power vis-a-vis any competitor. NATO has deterred aggressive States that might be attempting to destabilize Europe or the broader national system. It has tamped down European instability by making it virtually unthinkable that war could occur between NATO members. NATO also acts as an impediment to nuclear proliferation by convincing historically insecure countries, such as Germany and Poland, that they do not need the world's absolute weapon. Third, NATO enhances U.S. diplomatic leverage. Put bluntly, Europeans have to listen to us on European and global issues because the United States plays the leading role in NATO, and that makes it the central player in European defense. The United States has also used NATO and its institutional structures as vehicles for deep cooperation on counterterrorism, counterproliferation, counter-piracy, and other challenges. Fourth, the relationship with NATO provides economic benefits. For decades, U.S. diplomats and trade negotiators have used the security leverage provided by its NATO commitments to extract more favorable terms in bilateral economic agreements. More broadly, NATO and other U.S. alliances sustain a climate of stability in which trade and free enterprise can flourish, thereby bolstering U.S. and global prosperity. Finally, the relationship with NATO provides political legitimacy. Formal alliances like NATO provide greater international legitimacy for the use of force, especially in cases such as the Kosovo conflict when we cannot secure a U.N. Security Council resolution. Allied support also enhances the perceived legitimacy of military action at home. For all these reasons, maintaining a strong transatlantic relationship is critical to U.S. interests. There are, of course, challenges that are currently testing the U.S.-NATO relationship, just as there have always been such challenges. I discuss those challenges at greater length in my written statement, but just a short list would include: building a stronger and more credible deterrent against Russian aggression in Eastern Europe; ensuring that key allies such as Germany are making necessary military investments; adapting the alliance to confront unconventional threats like political warfare and economic coercion; reconciling NATO's collective defense mission with its out-of-area responsibilities; confronting growing political illiberalism within parts of the alliance, and, most importantly, reversing the erosion of U.S. credibility within the alliance as a result of statements questioning America's Article 5 commitment. The seriousness of these challenges should not be understated, but I believe that the transatlantic relationship can overcome them, just as it has overcome even greater challenges before, so long as the United States continues to provide the leadership that has proved so important for the past seven decades. And if anything, I think the relevance of NATO to American strategy is increasing today, not simply because of the Russian threat, but because it is hard to imagine any effective strategy for dealing with an autocratic, assertive China that does not include deep cooperation between America and its closest democratic allies in Europe. Thank you. [The prepared statement of Mr. Brands follows:] [GRAPHICS NOT AVAILABLE IN TIFF FORMAT] Mr. Keating. Ms. Conley. STATEMENT OF HEATHER CONLEY, SENIOR VICE PRESIDENT, EUROPE, EURASIA, AND THE ARCTIC, AND DIRECTOR, EUROPE PROGRAM, CENTER FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES Ms. Conley. Thank you, Chairman Keating and Ranking Member Kinzinger, members of this committee. What a privilege it is to be your kickoff hearing. Thank you so much. And let me just say thank you for the kind invitation to NATO's Secretary General, Jens Stoltenberg, to speak at a Joint Session of Congress next week. That sends such an important message. So, thank you for that leadership. Seventy years ago, the United States knew who we were, what we stood for, and what we needed to do to safeguard freedom. We were the good guys. We stood for freedom. We were those can-do Americans, said with equal parts envy and exacerbation by our allies. America's Greatest Generation, having fought twice in Europe in the span of 28 years, understood the extraordinarily high cost of freedom and the scourge of nationalism and hatred. To honor that American sacrifice from two world wars, that generation of leaders knew that European stability was essential to ensure America's security, exactly as you said, Chairman Keating, and it understood that strong alliances win wars against aggressors then and now. As I was preparing for this oral statement, I looked under my computer keyboard, and I keep a copy of Senator John McCain's farewell message to the Munich Security Conference last year, which Mrs. McCain read, and it inspired me. And I just want to offer this quote to you from Senator McCain: ``Together with our allies, we kept faith with those on the other side of the walls that divided the oppressed from the free. We were confident that they wanted the same things we did--freedom, equal justice, the rule of law, a fair chance to prosper by their own industry and talents. This is our greatest inheritance, and it did not happen by accident.'' Today I would argue we are having a tough time answering the question of who we are and what we stand for. We are tired of spending funds overseas that are so urgently needed at home. We are frustrated and burdened by the yoke of leadership. We want others to shoulder that burden, and sometimes we appear as victims that other countries are taking advantage of. Congressman Kinzinger, you noted how weak our allies are acting right now. They are very divided. They are having a hard time resisting China's economic strength, I would argue Russia's malign influence. We cannot take America's greatest foreign and security policy success, Europe, for granted. We need to engage them. We need to work with them. We need to push them very hard, but that requires deep American diplomatic, economic, and security engagement. But I leave you with this final thought: this discussion is really not about our allies. It is about who we are and what we stand for in the future. This anniversary gives us an opportunity to put forward the hard-fought wisdom, values, principles, and knowledge of previous American generations, but we must bring it forward to a new generation. I have to convince my young daughters why NATO is as important to them as it is to me. As representatives of the American people, you must do this. As former officials that are sitting on this witness table, we must do our part as well. This is our greatest inheritance and we must fight every day to preserve it and strengthen it. Thank you. [The prepared statement of Ms. Conley follows:] [GRAPHICS NOT AVAILABLE IN TIFF FORMAT] Mr. Keating. Thank you, Ms. Conley, and thank all the witnesses. In a very short period of time, I think you capsulized what this hearing is about. And I, too, had the privilege of going to the Munich Security Conference as part of the CODEL led by Senator McCain. What an experience that is, trust me, in every respect. But his patriotism, his love of this country, his understanding of the role of our country, and an understanding of the alliance that we are talking about, was as deep as any person I had ever met in my life, and he will be missed. One of the best legacies we can all serve to honor him is to do our best at this difficult time to move forward. Because, in my opinion, this is not just a hearing. This is really the beginning of a central mission of this committee during this Congress. Each of us is here and have been elected at different times in our country's history, but I honestly believe that what we do as a Congress during this 2-year period, in particular, will have fundamental impact on our relations with our most important allies and create a bond of greater security and prosperity in our country in an area where we have never had such an ability to do so. I came back--and I saw Ambassador Burns there--from Munich with the Speaker and several other of our leaders just a little over 3 weeks ago. We had the opportunity to go to Brussels after that, and in the whole course of that, met with most of the key European officials. Really what I want to get to is this: I was really taken aback by the depth of the challenge we have in front of us as a Congress. There was a poll in Germany that came out just about the time that we got there, and it showed that the German people had 85 percent unfavorability toward the United States and only 10 percent favorability. The German people, those are among our closest allies, people that, as our witnesses detailed, have fought with us and lost lives. So, these are the critical issues we have in front of us. And also, we met with those leaders. And I will share with you without identifying them, because there are Chatham Rules that took place in these private meetings. But during those recent meetings, during those meetings that we had, the leaders were using words like ``painful,'' ``hurtful,'' describing our actions at that time. They centered, for instance, on the U.S. rationale for the tariffs that are imposed on Europe right now, and they wanted us to explain why we were using emergency security powers to impose those tariffs. They said, ``When did we become your enemies? When did we become a security risk to your country?'', our closest allies. So, if you could, that is why I led with this question. We have work to do with the people in Europe, and that is why we are here today. That is why this is central to what we will do, reminding them of the importance of this alliance. Because I think when people focus back on what we took for granted a generation ago, they will understand better how to invest personally, financially, and in terms of our security interests together. So, if I could, those two comments: what can we do to help improve as a Congress? And I must tell you, I am not casting our meeting just on those issues. I have been to many CODELs traveling as Members of Congress. I cannot recall a time that I felt as appreciated with us being there as Members of Congress as we did during that period. And that is encouraging. But what can we do? Because the people that will be making decisions-- and there are elections coming this spring--will be guided by their own constituencies. And it is concerning to see that unfavorability that is there with a close ally, and also the work we have to do with these other officials, our counterparts in Europe. Mr. Burns? Ambassador Burns? Mr. Burns. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I would also say this: politics is a two-way street. Relations across the Atlantic are a two-way street. I think there are things that we need to do and they need to do. On our side, it was pretty clear from the Munich Conference--it was an extraordinarily insightful conference to hear from the Europeans--they are looking for a reaffirmation of the American commitment to NATO, especially focused on Article 5, because the President just has not done that. He has had his first visit in 2017. He did not mention Article 5. In fact, it was taken out of his speech. And then, last summer, on the day of the summit with President Putin in Helsinki, he was highly ambivalent about whether he would respond to an attack on Montenegro, a country that was attacked politically, an attempted coup by the Russians 2 years ago. And the second thing that we need to do is reaffirm our relationship with the European Union. Every President since the Coal and Steel Community was created in 1948 has believed that the European Union is a partner of the United States. It is in our interest to see them succeed. The President consistently has called them a foe, a competitor, only looking at them through a prism of trade, but not also in our political partnership, which is very deep. I think on their side of the ledger--and here, the ranking member I thought made a very productive statement--we have to push the Europeans as well, as we always have. They are excessively reliant on Russian natural gas. They are endanger of being excessively reliant on Chinese capital investment through the Belt and Road Initiative. You saw that Italy joined it formally over the weekend. They are insufficiently distrustful of Huawei on the 5G issue. And so, I do think we have a right and an obligation in a two-way street relationship to push back. And the one that I feel most strongly about is German defense spending. It is the largest and most successful economy. They have a surplus. And yet, the Bundestag reported out last week a budget that will not get them to 2 percent by 2024, which is the target. They may barely get to 1.5 percent. President Trump is right to push them. President Obama was right to push them. The only silver lining there--I will finish on this--is that we have seen four consecutive years of real growth in European defense spending since Putin's annexation of Crimea, mainly not in Germany, but in the other allies, and that is something we can push forward on with them. Mr. Keating. My time is up, but I think that you will have the opportunity, the other witnesses, to address some of those issues with some of the other questioning. So, I yield to the ranking member, Mr. Kinzinger. Mr. Kinzinger. Mr. Chairman, I am going to swap places with Ms. Wagner. And I will say, from my side, if you could, let's be very disciplined on the 5-minute clock because of the hour. But I will switch places with her, Mr. Chairman. Mrs. Wagner. I greatly appreciate the courtesy of the ranking member. I have to get to a Financial Services markup. And so, I am on roller skates today. And thank you, Mr. Chairman, for organizing this hearing. And thank our witnesses. I had the great privilege of serving as a United States Ambassador in Western Europe, Ambassador Burns. And, Ms. Conley, I would like to associate myself with your opening statement greatly. Although we work closely with partners in the EU bloc, our goals are not always in step. We have historically relied on the United Kingdom to bridge gaps between the United States and EU countries. Ms. Conley, how will the UK's departure from the EU affect EU policies in areas of interest to the United States, such as sanctions and trade and regulatory policies? Ms. Conley. Thank you so much for that question. The European Union will be greatly reduced, should the United Kingdom depart the EU. On an almost daily, hourly basis, the story is in constant change. But, all things being equal, the United Kingdom provides for the European Union a very export-oriented, very market-economy-driven--it is driving the European Union on foreign and security policy. And this will be a great loss to the European Union when the United Kingdom leaves. If anything, we focus too much on the ins and outs of this extraordinary Brexit debate, but we have not focused enough in thinking about how much the EU will diminish, and in some ways how much the United Kingdom will diminish from being out of the European Union. This is why we are seeing in the EU the creation of what they are calling the Hanseatic League, which is Northern European economies that are trying to in some ways fill the space that the UK will leave in being market-driven, export-driven, much different from the Southern European economies. Mrs. Wagner. There will definitely be a void. Ms. Wormuth, many of our European partners share the United States concerns regarding Russia's non-compliance with the Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, or INF. The United States has since withdrawn from the INF with NATO support. I understand these recent developments worry some European stakeholders who fear resurgent U.S.-Russian competition will destabilize Europe. What is the future of arms control in Europe, and what role can European countries play in pressuring Russia back into compliance? Ms. Wormuth. Thank you for the question, Congresswoman. I am very concerned about the future of the arms control regime in the wake of the decision to withdraw from INF, primarily because I am concerned about what it means for whether we extend the New START agreement in 2021, which I think is very much in the interest of the United States, despite the fact that we are in a very low period with the Russians. So, figuring out how to extend that agreement, which is in our interest, I think is item No. 1 on that agenda. I think we need to continue to have our European allies and partners put pressure on Russia to work with us to extend that agreement and to call out their bad behavior, as they have in many instances. I do think that part of having a credible deterrent is showing a unified front. I think the way the United States withdrew from INF did not shore up that unity inside of the alliance. So, going forward, we need to coordinate, so that we show a unified front. Mrs. Wagner. Thank you, Ms. Wormuth. Ambassador Burns, during the cold war our alliances with European countries helped the United States maintain a durable balance of power vis-a-vis the Soviet Union, preventing catastrophic conflict, frankly, between the great powers. Today, we are seeing China step into the balance or into the place, I should say, that the Soviet Union once occupied. What role will Europe play in countering the rise of China? Mr. Burns. I think, as Heather Conley said, the Europeans seem to be disorganized and not united on how to respond to China, a great deal of divisiveness as the Chinese seek inroads. The Chinese are running and own the Port of Piraeus-- -- Mrs. Wagner. Yes. Mr. Burns [continuing]. The biggest port in the Eastern Med; significant investments in the Balkans, now in Italy. So, the European Union needs to organize itself. It needs to develop a common policy because this is a major threat. And they understand that the military advantage that the United States has had since the Second World War will be at risk if in AI, machine learning, quantum computing, biotechnology, our government does not have the ability to keep up with the Chinese in the technological arms race. Europe is going to be part of that. Their labs, their tech companies, their research universities have to be with us and united in that. So, I think that, on a NATO basis, China has become an issue. And in Ambassador Lute's report that I did with him, that is one of our recommendations: we have to think about China as a threat. I would close on this, Congresswoman. General Milley said this morning when he testified up here on the Hill that he felt that Russia was still the great existential threat. I think we are facing two big authoritarian threats---- Mrs. Wagner. I agree. Mr. Burns [continuing]. In Europe. Mrs. Wagner. I agree. Mr. Chairman, my time has expired. Again, I thank the ranking member for his courtesy. Mr. Keating. Well, thank you, Representative. Thanks for bringing that point across because one of the highest-ranking members of the EU that we had private conversations with said, if we are on the course we are now, and we could look back 30 years from the future, we would find out by far the greatest threat is China and their activities. I yield to Mr. Cicilline, who I understand might yield his position and time. Mr. Cicilline. My position, not my time. [Laughter.] Mr. Costa. I thank my friend and colleague from Rhode Island for yielding this time. I have another subcommittee that is going on. We have an all-star group of testifiers today, and I want to thank you all for your service to our country and your efforts there. Chairman Keating, I want to commend you for this effort. I do agree that we are in a transitional time in world history, and I think this subcommittee will and can, if we do, play an important role in combination with our allies in Europe in being, in essence, the glue that reaffirms, as we have stated earlier, the importance of this transatlantic relationship. Seventy years--70 years--of this history is the longest peacetime period in Europe in over 1,000 years. I am certain that the majority of Americans, certainly the majority of Europeans, do not think about that. Probably the majority of them do not even know that, that these institutions that we have helped create from NATO to the other efforts with the European Union and stabilization of that, the World Trade Organization--the list goes on--these are things we did not just for Europe; we did for ourselves. Countries do what is in their own interest. And this peace dividend that has resulted in this 70-year transatlantic partnership must be reaffirmed. So, let me ask you a few questions here, and I just want to go quickly through it because of time. Ambassador Burns, do you view the European Union as our adversary? Mr. Burns. No, they are our partner strategically. Mr. Costa. Ms. Wormuth, do you view the European Union as our adversary? Ms. Wormuth. No. I would affiliate myself with Ambassador Burns' view. Mr. Costa. Yes. And, Ms. Conley? Ms. Conley. Absolutely not. The European Union is our great partner. Mr. Costa. And Hal Brands? Mr. Brands. The European Union has provided the political and economic cohesion to go along with NATO's military cohesion. Mr. Costa. Right. And I think that some of the comments made here earlier--certainly there are wealthy countries in Europe that should do more in terms of their commitment, Germany being one of them. And we need to continue to push them, as the previous administrations have done. But there are constructive ways that you can do that. And I know the chairman here and I, as chairman of the Transatlantic Legislators' Dialogue, are committed to doing just that. I am looking for the four of you to give us some thoughts and suggestions on how at this transitional time in history we can use these institutions, these committees, these efforts with the NATO PA and Transatlantic Policy Network, to be this glue that reaffirms that America still cares. Because the comments that Chairman Keating made when I was at Brussels last month with him and others--these are questions that our European friends are asking, where is America? And they are dealing with the same challenges that we are: populism, extremism, fear from immigration, racism, bigotry, antisemitism that not only is raising its head here, but in Europe as well. So, what suggestions would you have in terms of using our legislative tools with our partners in Europe over the next 2 years? Ambassador Burns, do you want to begin, quickly? Mr. Burns. I would just say that Congress has a real opportunity here. If the administration is not willing to work with the Europeans on refugees or climate or Iran--and there is a question about whether or not the Trump administration actually sees the EU as a strategic partner--Congress can step forward, and these legislative exchanges are important. Mr. Costa. I think it has been very clear, the administration sees these relationships as transactional and does not really believe in multinational partnerships. Clearly, that is what they have exhibited. It is just a different view and it is jarring, I think, for this partnership. Thirty years ago, the Berlin Wall fell. These are really historical things, if you think about it, and it is due, in part, to the success of this partnership I believe. Other comments? Yes? Ms. Conley. I would just add, I think, obviously, visiting often, traveling, speaking out, making sure that they are hearing other voices of support. I would also encourage you to think about how your district and the States can work more collaboratively with Europe, the sister city partnerships, economic relationships. If this cannot be a top-down approach, we have to stabilize and maintain it. Really energize your constituents to reach out to economic ties that bind, and continue to send the strong messages. Mr. Costa. And working with AmCham; there is also the private and the public sector. There are NGO's. There is a lot of things that are tools, Mr. Chairman, that I think we need to employ with our European colleagues as well. My time has run out, but I do not know if any of you care to comment. In 2013, the equivalent of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of Russia, General Gerasimov, talked about a policy using democratic institutions, elections, to undermine the European Union and the U.S. as an economic force and as a military force, to play on those divisions. Think he has done a pretty good job so far with their limited hand? Mr. Keating. If I could, perhaps that could be answered in the course of the other questioning, too. If you could filter that in, it would be appreciated. Thank you, Representative. Mr. Costa. Thank you. Mr. Keating. I now call on Ranking Member Kinzinger. Mr. Kinzinger. Thank you, Mr. Chairman, and thanks for enforcing the 5 minutes, because I know a lot of us have stuff to do this afternoon. Let me just say again, all of you, I appreciate you being here. I think this is a fantastic hearing. I think there is a lot that unifies us. I have heard a few shots kind of coming from the other side about the administration. Let me be clear. I think the administration appreciates Europe and sees Europe as a friend. I think the administration appreciates NATO and sees NATO as a friend. But sometimes Europe and NATO do not like being called out when they are not doing what they need to do. And, I mean, it is a reality. Back post-World War II, Europe was in a position where they needed the United States, basically, to provide a whole lot, and there was a lot of benefit to us. Now we are in a position where we have a lot of very strong countries, and we all have to rely on each other for a security situation. I think it is important to note that we get as much out of NATO as NATO gets out of us. So, I think it is important. This is not just a United States doing a favor for Europe situation. But, that said, the fact that we all kind of have something to play, I do not think there is anything wrong with calling out Europe when they are falling short in those areas. I think looking at the issue with Russia, as the chairman mentioned and others mentioned, Russia is a huge problem. We see it in our own hemisphere as we get reports that Russia has landed troops in Venezuela, a socialist nation that is failing its people that are starving to death. And Russia, once again, appears to be using its military, as it did in Syria, to hold a terrible person in power because it benefits them in power. So, that is why pushing back against Russia through NATO in Europe, taking away energy as a weapon for them, pushing back against them in our own hemisphere, which we have neglected for too long, is very important. And we need our friends in NATO to step up with us. We need them to spend a little money with us, too. Ms. Conley, I want to touch on Germany with you and I want to ask you a question. Germany's willingness to continue the construction of the Nord Stream 2 pipeline and to connect 5G with the Chinese telecom firm Huawei is only a few of the questionable choices that they are making. What does it say about the strength of the U.S.-European alliance when Germany, the largest economy in Europe, is taking actions that are counterproductive to our joint security interests? Ms. Conley. Thank you, Congressman. That is exactly what we do; we work on tough problems. The challenge is Nord Stream 2 follows Nord Stream 1, and we should have been much stronger on Nord Stream 1. I think there is an awareness in the German government that they cannot proceed as to how they wanted to. Chancellor Merkel has said that she wants to ensure that Ukraine does have transit, gas transit, before the end of this. But you are absolutely right, this is where we have to roll up our sleeves and work very closely with them, not scream at them through Ambassadors, but work constructively with them. They respond to a parliament. They are just like our system. They can demand change. We let this go on for too long. I would argue we have been sort of in a benign neglect phase for over a decade. We are very transactional. We ask one thing, and then, we will come back and ask for another. We do not engage in a sustained way. If we are concerned about Nord Stream 2, we had better be as concerned about TurkStream because TurkStream is a reconstituted South Stream. So, we have to look at this very holistically. The 5G issue, you are absolutely right, Europe is falling very far behind in IT infrastructure. They know that. And what they are trying to do is make sure the U.S. companies are affected to try to level the playing field. We have to join with them, and if we do not join with them, they will be very susceptible to our adversaries---- Mr. Kinzinger. Yes, I agree. And, look, this has been an issue that has come under Republican and Democratic administrations prior. We have let this kind of relationship sleep. We have basically said, OK, the fact that NATO exists is enough, and we have not taken into account these creeping problems that we are now having to deal with head-on. But I think we need to be careful not to assume that, when we take on these problems head-on that atrophied for so long under us, that is not disappreciating NATO or hating Europe that we are finding them as competitors. This is us saying, look, the future of the United States and the future of Europe is relying on this. Let me just ask you in only the 30 seconds left--Germany continues to be the member that does the most to stifle NATO growth. Year-in and year-out, they are near the bottom of defense spending. Why does Germany continue to be such a problem when it comes to defense spending and in reaching the 2 percent GDP target? And I gave you 18 seconds. You can topline it and figure the rest later. Ms. Conley. So, I am deeply concerned not only in the State of the Bundeswehr and the lack of functional capabilities in the maritime as well as their air and land power, but please understand we are talking about different scales of economies. So, when you talk about the German economy, it is not the Estonian economy. So, when we put this marker at 2 percent, we put ourselves into this corner where we benchmark at 2 percent. You can spend 2 percent to defend against another NATO ally, which is the Greek posture, or we can have allies that have capabilities that the U.S. can use. Mr. Kinzinger. It would be good if Germany had one of those. Ms. Conley. Well, Germany absolutely has to increase their defense spending, and we have to work very closely with them on Bundeswehr reform. But the Germans are also the lead framework nation in Lithuania and the NATO battalion. They are contributing, but we have to work much harder and hold them to account, I agree with you. Mr. Kinzinger. I think we all agree. With that, I am going to yield back just because of time. Thank you very much. Mr. Keating. OK. Thank you. Now I would like to recognize the very patient Representative from Rhode Island, Mr. Cicilline. Mr. Cicilline. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. And thank you again to our witnesses for your really helpful testimony. Ambassador Burns, I want to start with you. As I mentioned in my opening statement, you referred to the challenges faced by NATO at 70, particularly as it relates to the failure or absence of leadership from the U.S. President, and how unusual a circumstance that is. Although we are trying to do as much as we can as Members of Congress to reaffirm our support and our understanding of the importance of this relationship--we did a resolution which was overwhelmingly supported in a bipartisan way; we are having this hearing--my sense is still that world leaders look to the words and actions of the President and not the Congress. And so, I am wondering if you could speak a little bit about what the absence of American Presidential leadership in this moment has meant in terms of the future of NATO and what we can do to undo some of the damage that is being done by the President in this regard. Mr. Burns. Thank you, Congressman. One of the most striking things that Ambassador Lute and I heard--we took 6 months, interviewed 60 leaders, current and former on both sides of the Atlantic--one of the most striking things was that a lot of Europeans said there could not be next week a head-of-government summit here in Washington to celebrate the 70th anniversary because the European leaders and some of the Americans were not quite sure if President Trump would blow up the summit with rhetorical attack on NATO, the way he did the last two NATO summits in 2018 and 2017. That is a sad reflection. I think what we have lost is we have never had a President who is so ambivalent, and this is a kind characterization, about NATO. Article 5 is the key. A lot of people have been saying, watch what the administration does, not what it says. But, for deterrence to work, your words have to be clear and they have to be credible, and they have to be firm. If you backslide on Article 5, that does give an opening to an adversary like Vladimir Putin. It may not be a conventional attack of the type that we might have feared, and we did fear, in the 1950's and 1960's, but now a hybrid attack or a cyberattack on our election system. And so, I think we have lost a lot. And we need the next President, whenever that President appears after a vote of the American people, to really dig us out of a hole. Congress does have an opening right now. Ironic for someone who is a creature of the executive branch--I served my entire career in the executive branch--to ask Congress to exercise its constitutional responsibilities. But I can tell you, what I have heard from Europeans is the resolutions you passed reaffirming American support for NATO did make a difference for them. And I think we saw that in Munich as well. Mr. Cicilline. Thank you, Ambassador. I think one of the other things that we have heard a lot about is, obviously, the shared democratic values that both led to the creation of NATO and it has sustained it for these 70 years. But I think many of us are very concerned about, and you have written about this, the democratic institutions that are weakening, particularly in Hungary and Poland. I think it is also quite a stretch to claim that Turkey embodies democratic values. Populist parties are growing all across Europe, and you, Ambassador Burns, highlighted this in your report, this democratic backsliding as a cancer within NATO. And so, I am curious to know what you think Congress can do to shore up the foundations of democracy at the core of the transatlantic alliance and what your assessment is of the State of democracy in Europe. And obviously, any of the other witnesses who want to contribute to that, answer. Mr. Burns. Two big challenges. The biggest challenge in Europe right now, the existential challenge is the rise of the anti-democratic populists, Marine Le Pen, Geert Wilders, Alternative for Deutschland. They are contesting the European parliamentary elections. They may, unfortunately, do well in them this spring. Very important for the United States to be on the right side of that issue. And there is a perception, more than a perception, a strong belief that the President has embraced Viktor Orban in Hungary and the Polish government, and Salvini, the right-leaning leader in the Italian coalition. We should be behind the Christian democrats and the social democratic leaders, the true small ``d'' democrats in Europe like Angela Merkel, and we are not right now. And that is hurting us. On the NATO side, I have to tell you, when Ambassador Lute and I suggested in our report that NATO look into the democratic practices of Hungary, Poland, and Italy, there was widespread opposition among most of the people in NATO. They say, ``It will divide us.'' But NATO is not just a military alliance; it is a political alliance. The second sentence of the Washington Treaty is about our values, rule of law, democracy, human rights. We have got to pay attention to that. There ought to be an annual assessment of whether countries are backsliding. There have to be some penalties, but right now there is no agreement in NATO that we should do that. Mr. Cicilline. Thank you. My time has expired. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I yield back. Mr. Keating. Thank you, Representative. And the chair recognizes the gentleman from Indiana, Greg Pence. Mr. Pence. Thank you, Chairman Keating and Ranking Member Kinzinger. Thank you for holding this important meeting. I thank the panel for their service to this country, and thank you for being here today and providing a lot of information. In some of your written testimony, Ambassador Burns and Ms. Conley, you stated, NATO deters Russian President Putin from invading or seeking to destabilize our NATO allies in Eastern Europe. And two, the United States must return to Europe economically through enhanced trade and investment partnerships. I would like to discuss these items and switch gears a little bit from some of the things we have been talking about and talk about energy security. According to our congressional Research Service, the EU remains highly dependent on Russia for natural gas. More than 40 percent of total European gas imports are from Russia, and some EU members are almost totally dependent on Russian gas, as you know. At the same time, Russia has demonstrated its willingness to use its energy resources to further its foreign policy. For example, Russia cutoff gas supplies to Europe for periods in 2006 and 2009, and has repeatedly manipulated flows through Ukraine. NATO is not blind to this challenge. According to NATO, and I quote, ``NATO's role in energy security was first defined in 2008 at the Bucharest summit and has since been strengthened.'' My question, is NATO, America's greatest security asset, doing enough to enhance energy security in the alliance, and what more should they be doing, if not? And I ask each of the panelists. Ms. Conley. Congressman, thank you so much for that question. I think NATO certainly is at the center of thinking about security very widely and has created a center of excellence to focus on energy security. But, ironically, it is the European Union that has the most input into demanding diversification of European energy. The European Union's Third Energy Package tries to break the upstream and the downstream requirements and tries to seek and ensure diversification. It has had successes; yet, it has had failures such as Nord Stream 2. We have to continue to work very closely with our allies to make sure that this cycle of dependency--and it is not just oil and gas; there is a malign economic influence that also comes as part of the dominance of, whether it is Gazprom or Rosneft, in NATO countries. We have to break that cycle of dependence. And this is exactly where NATO and EU cooperation is absolutely essential. NATO is the security provider, but the EU has the economic tools to try to help break this cycle of dependency. Mr. Brands. I would agree with that. I would just add, to the extent that the United States can promote or facilitate the export of LNG and other energy exports, that can provide a useful counterweight to Russian influence as well. The point I would make in terms of addressing this is that it is important for the United States to apply pressure and apply encouragement, but to do so in a constructive way. Because if it comes across as hostility or outright condemnation, that turns this issue or the defense spending issue into a referendum on the current political leadership of the United States, which is not an argument that we will win in Europe right now. Ms. Wormuth. And just to amplify that, I very much agree with what Ms. Conley said about Germany and its need to step forward in the area of defense. But, unfortunately, I think because so much of the German government feels like they have been singled out by the current administration, they are letting that color their decisions. And it almost feels as if part of deciding not to spend as much on defense is a reflection of feeling like they have been singled out unfairly. And so, I think we really need to get to a place where we are pushing the Europeans, as the ranking member said, but we are doing that against the backdrop of the complete understanding of the positive relationship that we have and how much our European allies bring to the table. I think without grounding those hard conversations in that backdrop, it is very easy to have those conversations be unconstructive. Mr. Burns. Congressman, NATO thought a lot about energy security at the beginning and the middle part of the cold war decades ago. We had to in terms of our contingency planning; less so now. NATO should think more about this, but I think, realistically, the EU is going to be the focal point of the institution that the U.S. can work with most effectively. U.S. LNG, Norwegian, Algerian gas are substitutes, and we have got to work with the EU to get there. Mr. Pence. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I yield back. Mr. Keating. Thank you, Representative. The chair now recognizes the vice chair of the committee, Representative Abigail Spanberger. Ms. Spanberger. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I am honored to serve as the vice chair of this subcommittee as we continue to reinforce our shared fundamental values of international cooperation, mutual security, and democracy. My question today for the witnesses--and I thank you very much for joining us--relates to trade policy. Recently, we have seen the White House invoke restrictive trade policies, particularly the imposition of tariffs in response to trade imbalances and in the name of national security. Yet, it is the farmers, business owners, and everyday people across my district, central Virginia's 7th district, and across the country who are hurt both by these tariffs and the retaliatory tariffs countries have imposed in response. Mr. Brands, in your view, and, Ambassador Burns--and to the other witnesses if you would care to respond as well--in your view, are these tariffs serving our national security interests or are there other, more effective diplomatic avenues for resolving trade disagreements that would not have this outsized negative impact on our own citizens that we should consider pursuing instead? Mr. Brands. I do not believe that the tariffs are serving the national interests. And I would simply add that I think they are undercutting U.S. goals in other respects as well. One thing I would give the administration credit for is trying to bring pressure on China to address its unfair trade practices, but that will be much more effective if we are not isolating ourselves by picking trade fights with our allies at the same time. Ms. Spanberger. Thank you. Mr. Burns. Congresswoman, I would just say it is complicated. We have always competed with the EU in trade. We are going to have our differences, but we need to fight fairly. The smarter play for us right now is to combine forces with the EU and Japan and South Korea against China. The President is fighting. I think he has made a lot of good points about China's predatory practices. We need that EU support, and right now we have got a divided team on our side. I would also say, in the mid to long term, we should go back to thinking about a U.S.-EU free trade agreement. Nine hundred million people, the two largest democratic spaces in the world, and the two largest economies in the world, and this could help our economy and it could help us to confront the predatory nature of the threat from the Chinese. Ms. Spanberger. And given the tenor that so many of these conversations have had related to our trade policy and related to our engagement with our allies, what do you see the path forward to dial back some of this aggression, to put us back on the right path, and potentially move toward, as you said, sir, combining forces, particularly in the face of the greater challenge, which is China? Mr. Burns. You know what we do not have right now is a productive relationship between the American President and the German Chancellor. President Obama and President Bush, George W. Bush, both had very productive, frank relationships with Angela Merkel. You could work things out with her because she is the strongest leader; to a lesser extent with President Macron of France. We do not have those relationships. The President and the Chancellor, I am told, do not talk often. If you do not have a conversation between the two most important alliance leaders on trade, then you get into situations, very unfortunate, where we are threatening a trade war. And I think a lot of people fear, when the U.S.-China trade war ends, that the President is going to go after the EU for our next trade war, and that is going to hurt everything that I think the four of us have talked about this morning. It is going to have an impact on the military and political issues as well. Ms. Spanberger. Thank you. Ms. Conley. I would just add, Congresswoman, that we do, like in the other areas, we do have very big differences with the European Union on a whole range of trade issues from data privacy and protection and agriculture. We cannot shy away from those. We have to dig into those. But placing tariffs on steel, aluminum, threatening tariffs on auto parts, we are self-harming ourselves. And exactly what we should have done is create a Japan-EU-U.S. full-spectrum approach to China on State-owned enterprises, the whole sweep on the AI issues. We could have had a dramatic impact on China's behavior. We just are choosing to fight our allies and our adversaries at the same time. We need to husband our allies and go after the same thing. Ms. Spanberger. Thank you very much for your time today. And I really appreciated your comment about fighting our allies and our adversaries at the same time. I think that is counterproductive. And I thank you for your comments this afternoon. I yield back. Mr. Keating. Thank you, Representative, and thank you for that line of questioning because, as a person in the last Congress that cofounded the then-called TTIP Caucus, there is no question--and I reached a great reception, as a matter of fact, when we brought this up when we were in Europe just recently--that if we work together, even if we are not successful in standardizing even the majority of products we have, we will have one-half of the world's GDP. If we really want to be effective with China, we should deal from strength. So, I appreciate that line of questioning. It was well received by the leaders there. I am not unmindful of obstacles we would have, but at least we will be going down the right road. So, thank you. And now, the gentleman from Mississippi, thank you for joining us. Representative Michael Guest, welcome to the committee, and thank you for being here. Mr. Guest. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I want to turn my focus just for a few minutes on NATO spending. And I think there was, during some opening statements made by you, Ms. Wormuth, that, currently, of the 29 NATO countries, eight have met the 2 percent GDP, which is the NATO spending standards that have been set, is that correct? Ms. Wormuth. Congressman, it is actually five currently now who are meeting the 2 percent target. Mr. Guest. Only five? Ms. Wormuth. That is correct. Mr. Guest. And you said that we are on track by 2024 to have additional countries that would meet that 2 percent GDP. What number? Ms. Wormuth. I think we are expecting it to be somewhere between 14 and 15. I mean, these are projections, but it will be a majority of the 29 members. Mr. Guest. So, we will still have, roughly, 14 or 15 then that do not meet that standard? Ms. Wormuth. That is possible. Mr. Guest. And some information that I saw--and tell me if any of you believe this is accurate or not--but some research said that, in 2017, the U.S. paid for over 70 percent of the combined defense expenditures of NATO. Does that number sound accurate to you? Ms. Wormuth. Well, I think it is easy to mix up the math because there's NATO common funding. There is sort of NATO budgets, and then, there are the individual national defense budgets. So, I am not sure which statistic that speaks to. Mr. Guest. All right. Let me ask, I guess my question is, since we currently have only five of 29 countries that meet that, even in 2024, we expect only to have, roughly, half--you believe 14 to 15--what can we do, as a Congress? I guess two things. What can we do, and then, what should we do to make sure that other NATO members are meeting their obligation? Ambassador, I will start with you, and I will work down the table from left to right. Mr. Burns. You know, the real problem is in the parliaments of these countries, particularly in Germany where the Bundestag does not want to spend the money. And they have, as you know, a surplus in their budget. So, speaking to them legislature to legislature I think is something that our members, Republican and Democrat, should do. Second, there is actually no common standard to how to measure 2 percent across the alliance. Individual allies measure it differently. We need a clean, regular metric that everyone can agree on. And I would say expand the 2 percent category to include spending on cyber defense and spending on intelligence, because some of the members, that is their comparative advantage. That is where they could help us. And right now, we are not counting what they are spending under 2 percent. This is a major problem, but it really has to focus on Germany as well. Mr. Guest. So, is what you are saying that we need to expand the categories that we consider counting toward that 2 percent? So, we would not be putting money necessarily 2 percent GDP into soldiers and battlefield equipment, but that money could be counted in additional spending? Is that your suggestion? Mr. Burns. That is a suggestion that Ambassador Lute and I made in our recent report, and it is striking to know that there is not a common assessment of how this is all measured. Some countries include pensions for military veterans and some countries do not, for instance. But cyber and intelligence, that is very important to counter the Russian threat, which is the most pernicious threat to NATO now. Mr. Guest. Ms. Wormuth, do you have any suggestion what we can do to get the majority, and ultimately all, of the countries to that 2 percent GDP amount? Ms. Wormuth. I do, Congressman. I think, first, we have to continue to speak constructively and do the hard work and have the hard conversations with our NATO allies about the importance of meeting that target. The projection today is that, by 2024, a majority of the 29 will get there, but we still have time and we can work with those countries to get more of them closer to the target. And again, that, I think, means having those difficult conversations against a backdrop of recognizing that we are all in this together. Another point I would make is that 2 percent is about the input. What is as important, if not more important, is the output. What are we buying with that? I do not want to see our NATO allies spend more money on their pensions and on some of their personnel accounts. I want to see them buying new equipment. I want to see them investing in research and development. And I would say the NATO countries are doing better. Part of the Wales Defense Investment Pledge was to have 20 percent of their defense budgets go to new equipment and R&D, and several members are reaching that target. So, I think we need to be focusing on have those hard conversations and have conversations about what they are buying and making sure what they are buying is useful for the alliance and for deterring Russia and dealing with the range of other challenges NATO faces. Mr. Guest. Dr. Brands, do you have any suggestions? Mr. Brands. I would endorse all this. I would also say, ``single out the high-performers for praise and recognition.'' Mr. Guest. And then, finally--I know I am about over time-- but, Ms. Conley, I will give you a chance to answer the question. Ms. Conley. Yes, thank you. And I think just to pull on Dr. Brands, I mean, we need to do more with those allies that are contributing more. More for more, is how I would put it. Also, appreciate that our allies provide host nation support in the basing, and that is a contribution. Many times when the U.S. invests in European security, there is a rebate. NATO, through its common funds, reimburses the alliance. So, it is not as clear and simple. But you are absolutely right, every leader at the Wales summit made a commitment to 2 percent to 2024. Now, like this Congress, they could not make a commitment of funding to 2024. They are democratically elected. But the trajectory has to be there. The capabilities have to be there. The message has been received, but, boy, we have to keep their feet to the fire and accept no excuses. Mr. Guest. Thank you. Mr. Chairman, I apologize for going over and I yield back. Mr. Keating. As we conclude, I just want to institute quickly a second round, but make it more of a lightning round. I do not know if you have planes to catch or what your transportation issues might be, but a couple of issues just for brief comment. And I will also give my colleagues any chance to put those questions in the queue as well. But we have not touched on Turkey and S-400, especially from its NATO implications. This is very serious. I did not want this hearing to go by without bringing up that issue because I do think it presents a very grave threat to our alliance if this continues. So, if you could comment on Turkey and the possible S-400 purchases from Russia? Ms. Wormuth. Chairman, I am very concerned about the Turkish decision to acquire the S-400, and so concerned that I think, frankly, we are in a position where we need to reconsider going forward with the F-35s to Turkey. We cannot have our planes essentially plugging into an adversary air defense system. We have been having this conversation with Turkey for some years now, but it feels like we are at the tipping point. But I certainly would not be comfortable going forward with the F-35s. Mr. Burns. I agree with Secretary Wormuth. The statements, recent statements, by Chairman Dunford and Supreme Allied Commander Scaparrotti I think have been straight on target. And that is, we cannot integrate this system into our alliance. And so, I agree with Secretary Wormuth. If the Turks proceed with this--and Erdogan is threatening to do that--then I think the F-35 should be at risk. How can we have close strategic coordination if they are importing a Russian system in the NATO ally defenses? Ms. Conley. Chairman, I would just argue that the S-400 picture is a symptom of a much broader and larger strategic picture that Turkey is turning away from Euro-Atlanticism--its approach to Venezuela, its approach to Iran, its rapprochement with Russia, some of the instability in the Aegean Sea. This deserves a hearing from this subcommittee to look at the totality. And much of NATO's containment strategic rationale was anchoring Turkey and Greece, Euro and the Euro-Atlantic community. This anchor is starting to push in a different direction. I would also argue, for the Congressman's comment, Hungary, you need a hearing dedicated to Hungary and understanding what is going on and whether we can maintain NATO classified information with that country. Family first. These are important countries. We are losing them. We have to find a strategy and a way forward to return them to the Euro-Atlantic community. Mr. Keating. Great. Well, I would like to thank the witnesses and say this has been a day of interruptions with the roll calls, but this has been so important. We had very good participation from the subcommittee members running in and out. A couple of them had to leave. And the members of the committee, those members or other members, will have the opportunity to ask additional questions in writing. And we ask the witnesses to please respond to those questions. And the hearing record will be open for 10 business days in order to receive those responses. Mr. Keating. Thank you so much for being here. This is just the beginning of an important journey. I think in the short time we had to discuss this we covered so much ground, but are left with so many more issues to pursue. With that, I will adjourn this hearing and thank you for your participation. [Whereupon, at 4:10 p.m., the subcommittee was adjourned.] APPENDIX [GRAPHICS NOT AVAILABLE IN TIFF FORMAT] [all]