[House Hearing, 113 Congress] [From the U.S. Government Publishing Office] THE DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY'S STRATEGY FOR EXPORTING LIQUEFIED NATURAL GAS ======================================================================= HEARING before the SUBCOMMITTEE ON ENERGY POLICY, HEALTH CARE AND ENTITLEMENTS of the COMMITTEE ON OVERSIGHT AND GOVERNMENT REFORM HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES ONE HUNDRED THIRTEENTH CONGRESS FIRST SESSION __________ MARCH 19, 2013 __________ Serial No. 113-11 __________ Printed for the use of the Committee on Oversight and Government Reform Available via the World Wide Web: http://www.fdsys.gov http://www.house.gov/reform U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE 80-386 WASHINGTON : 2013 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, http://bookstore.gpo.gov. For more information, contact the GPO Customer Contact Center, U.S. Government Printing Office. Phone 202�09512�091800, or 866�09512�091800 (toll-free). E-mail, [email protected]. COMMITTEE ON OVERSIGHT AND GOVERNMENT REFORM DARRELL E. ISSA, California, Chairman JOHN L. MICA, Florida ELIJAH E. CUMMINGS, Maryland, MICHAEL R. TURNER, Ohio Ranking Minority Member JOHN J. DUNCAN, JR., Tennessee CAROLYN B. MALONEY, New York PATRICK T. McHENRY, North Carolina ELEANOR HOLMES NORTON, District of JIM JORDAN, Ohio Columbia JASON CHAFFETZ, Utah JOHN F. TIERNEY, Massachusetts TIM WALBERG, Michigan WM. LACY CLAY, Missouri JAMES LANKFORD, Oklahoma STEPHEN F. LYNCH, Massachusetts JUSTIN AMASH, Michigan JIM COOPER, Tennessee PAUL A. GOSAR, Arizona GERALD E. CONNOLLY, Virginia PATRICK MEEHAN, Pennsylvania JACKIE SPEIER, California SCOTT DesJARLAIS, Tennessee MATTHEW A. CARTWRIGHT, TREY GOWDY, South Carolina Pennsylvania BLAKE FARENTHOLD, Texas MARK POCAN, Wisconsin DOC HASTINGS, Washington TAMMY DUCKWORTH, Illinois CYNTHIA M. LUMMIS, Wyoming DANNY K. DAVIS, Illinois ROB WOODALL, Georgia PETER WELCH, Vermont THOMAS MASSIE, Kentucky TONY CARDENAS, California DOUG COLLINS, Georgia STEVEN A. HORSFORD, Nevada MARK MEADOWS, North Carolina MICHELLE LUJAN GRISHAM, New Mexico KERRY L. BENTIVOLIO, Michigan VACANCY RON DeSANTIS, Florida Lawrence J. Brady, Staff Director John D. Cuaderes, Deputy Staff Director Robert Borden, General Counsel Linda A. Good, Chief Clerk David Rapallo, Minority Staff Director Subcommittee on Energy Policy, Health Care and Entitlements JAMES LANKFORD, Oklahoma, Chairman PATRICK T. McHENRY, North Carolina JACKIE SPEIER, California, Ranking PAUL GOSAR, Arizona Minority Member JIM JORDAN, Ohio ELEANOR HOLMES NORTON, District of JASON CHAFFETZ, Utah Columbia TIM WALBERG, Michigan JIM COOPER, Tennessee PATRICK MEEHAN, Pennsylvania MATTHEW CARTWRIGHT, Pennsylvania SCOTT DesJARLAIS, Tennessee TAMMY DUCKWORTH, Illinois BLAKE FARENTHOLD, Texas DANNY K. DAVIS, Illinois DOC HASTINGS, Washington TONY CARDENAS, California ROB WOODALL, Georgia STEVEN A. HORSFORD, Nevada THOMAS MASSIE, Kentucky MICHELLE LUJAN GRISHAM, New Mexico C O N T E N T S ---------- Page Hearing held on March 19, 2013................................... 1 WITNESSES Mr. Tom Choi, National Practice Leader, Gas, Deloitte Marketpoint LLC Oral Statement............................................... 8 Written Statement............................................ 11 Mr. Paul Cicio, President, Industrial Energy Consumers of America Written Statement............................................ 16 Oral Statement............................................... 18 Dr. Charles Ebinger, Director Foreign Policy, Energy Security Initiative, Brookings Institute Oral Statement............................................... 30 Written Statement............................................ 32 Mr. Chris Smith, Actng Assistant Secretary Fossil Energy, U.S. Department of Energy Oral Statement............................................... 42 Written Statement............................................ 44 APPENDIX The Honorable Jim Jordan, a Member of Congress from the State of Ohio, Opening Statement........................................ 98 The Honorable James Lankford, a Member of Congress from the State of Oklahoma, Opening Statement................................. 99 The Honorable Jackie Speier, a Member of Congress from the State of California. Opening Statement............................... 101 DEI, Opening Statement........................................... 104 The Honorable Elijah E. Cummings, a Member of Congress from the State of Maryland, Opening Statement........................... 106 THE DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY'S STRATEGY FOR EXPORTING LIQUEFIED NATURAL GAS ---------- Tuesday, March 19, 2013, House of Representatives, Subcommittee on Energy Policy, Health Care and Entitlements, Committee on Oversight and Government Reform, Washington, D.C. The subcommittee met, pursuant to notice, at 3:10 p.m. in room 2247, Rayburn House Office Building, Hon. James Lankford [chairman of the subcommittee], presiding. Present: Representatives Lankford, Gosar, McHenry, DesJarlais, Farenthold, Massie, Issa, Speier, Horsford, Lujan Grisham, and Cummings. Also present: Representatives Turner, Meadows, and Fleming. Staff Present: Ali Ahmad, Majority Communications Advisor; Molly Boyl, Majority Parliamentarian; Joseph A. Brazauskas, Majority Counsel; Sharon Casey, Majority Senior Assistant Clerk; Drew Colliatie, Majority Legislative Assistant; Brian Daner, Majority Counsel; Linda Good, Majority Chief Clerk; Tyler Grimm, Majority Professional Staff Member; Ryan M. Hambleton, Majority Professional Staff Member; Frederick Hill, Majority Director of Communications and Senior Policy Advisor, Christopher Hixon, Majority Deputy Chief Counsel, Oversight; Mark D. Marin, Majority Director of Oversight; Scott Schmidt, Majority Deputy Director of Digital Strategy; Jaron Bourke, Minority Director of Administration; Jimmy Fremgen, Minority Legislative Assistant; Nicholas Kamau, Minority Counsel; Chris Knauer, Minority Senior Investigator; Adam Koshkin, Minority Research Assistant; Safiya Simmons, Minority Press Secretary and Mark Stephenson, Minority Director of Legislation. Mr. Lankford. Let us begin this hearing by saying the Oversight's mission statement. We exist to secure two fundamental principles. First, Americans have the right to know that the money Washington takes from them is well spent. Second, Americans deserve an efficient and effective government that works for them. Our duty on the Government Oversight and Reform Committee is to protect these rights. Our solemn responsibility is to hold the government accountable to taxpayers because taxpayers have a right to know what they get from their government. We will work tirelessly in partnership with citizen watchdogs to deliver the facts to the American people and bring genuine reform to the federal bureaucracy. This is the mission of the Government Oversight and Reform Committee. Today we are here to discuss the Department of Energy's strategy and process in reviewing applications to export liquefied natural gas, LNG, specifically to non-free trade agreement countries. For countries with which we have a free trade agreement covering the Natural Gas Act of 1938, and obviously amended multiple times since then, the Department of Energy is required to grant applications to export LNG. Such export is deemed to be consistent with the public interest and the authorization must be granted without modification or delay. For countries with which we do not have a free trade agreement covering natural gas, the Natural Gas Act presumes the Department of Energy will grant the application to export LNG unless the Department finds the proposed exportation will not be consistent with the public interest. The issue we are here to discuss today is not if we should export natural gas. The U.S. has exported natural gas via pipeline to Canada and Mexico since the 1930s. We are also not here to discuss if we should export liquefied natural gas. The U.S. has exported LNG from the Kenai Peninsula in Alaska since 1969. Again, by statute, the Department of Energy must approve LNG exports to FTA countries and the default position is it exports to non-FTA countries unless DOE finds that it is not consistent with the public interest. Finally, we are not here to discuss if we should export liquefied natural gas to non-FTA countries. Again, the U.S. has exported to Japan, which is not an FTA country, from Alaska since 1969. In the lower 48 in May 2011, the Department of Energy granted the first permit to export LNG to a non-FTA country. That facility is currently under construction in southwest Louisiana and will begin exporting LNG within two years. We are not even here to discover for the first time the economic impacts of LNG export. DOE has already commissioned and released the results of a two-part study. The first part was conducted by the U.S. Energy Information Administration and the second part was conducted by NERA, Economic Consulting. Dave Montgomery of NERA was invited to testify today as well, but due to a last minute scheduling conflict, has submitted written testimony for the record for which I will ask unanimous consent to put into the record. Mr. Lankford. The DOE studies concluded that for every one of the market scenarios examined, net economic benefits increased as the level of LNG exports increased and that exports of natural gas will improve the U.S. balance of trade and result in a wealth transfer to the U.S. Two additional studies on LNG have also been commissioned by Brookings and Deloitte, which will testify here today on the risks and potential gains for our economy and global relationships. As a Nation, we have already decided exporting is consistent with our public interest and we will continue to export natural gas by pipeline and LNG to FTA and non-FTA countries. The only issue here is how and when the Department will process the approximately remaining 20 LNG export applications. Every other applicant is now significantly behind the first permit holder which was permitted almost two years ago. It is essential that the process moves fairly and expeditiously. Today's question is really a narrow and simple set of process questions, although each answer has enormous implications for our international economic relationships and capital investments at home. When will DOE make its determination of public interest and what are the specific criteria in that decision, especially since the law encourages a default yes answer to exports. The two DOE-requested studies are complete. They both show a favorable gain for our nation when we export LNG. Now the comment period and replies are also complete. Will the DOE seek to limit the number of billion cubic feet that can be exported per day? Has DOE already set a certain amount of LNG to export and if so, how was that limit chosen? Will DOE seek to limit the number of export facilities permitted and thus allowed to compete and explore for contracts worldwide? What role will the market or geopolitical goals play in this decision? When can potential exporting companies begin competing for those contracts? There are not an infinite number of contracts that can be acquired worldwide. If we delay making a decision on permitting, other countries with a more efficient bureaucracy will beat us. The U.S. has a great head start in terms of technology, experience, pipeline infrastructure and processing. We have developed financial and legal systems to support gas development. These advantages will not last forever. There are massive shale gas fields around the world. China and India have invested in the Marcellus Shale in order to learn more about our technologies and currently Australia has eight LNG export facilities under construction. We have one. The demand window is open. We can step through it or we can delay until the window closes. If DOE intends to delay the decision to export to reduce the opportunity for global contracts, that is also something we should know. I don't believe that is the Administration's intent. In December 2012, President Obama said to Time Magazine, ``The United States is going to be a net exporter of energy because of new technologies and what we are doing with natural gas and oil.'' The President also recognizes these energy developments could have huge geopolitical consequences. For decades, energy has been used as a diplomatic tool against the U.S. Now with LNG, the U.S. has the potential to flip that and be in the position to use energy as a tool to benefit our Nation's strategic interest. Now that DOE has completed the first permit and developed a system, what will be the timing and systems to permit the remaining applicants? With billions of private capital at stake, how can we make the process neutral, fair and expedited? How quickly can that process be released and how can we complete the process so that our nation can move forward with energy exploration, jobs, construction, midstream jobs and the narrowing of our trade deficit? Uncertainty destabilizes a free market economy. It is time to provide timelines and decision-making criteria ensuring fairness of the process for everyone involved. I look forward to those answers on all these key issues today. Mr. Lankford. With that, I would like to recognize the distinguished Ranking Member, the gentlelady from California, Ms. Speier, for her opening statement. Ms. Speier. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Thank you for holding today's hearing. I look forward to an informative discussion on the Obama Administration's process for reviewing the export of liquefied natural gas. New technologies in horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing have led to significant increases in U.S. natural gas production and a huge growth in our domestic gas supplies. For the first time in modern history, America has the opportunity to become dramatically more energy independent. As USAID Today reported last year, energy independence is no pipe dream. The U.S. is already the world's fastest growing oil and natural gas producer. Counting the output from Canada and Mexico, North America is the new Middle East. Furthermore, at our current pace of production, the Energy Information Administration predicts that the United States will slash its dependence on foreign oil to as low as 36 percent by the year 2035, down from some 49 percent in 2010. Many have called natural gas a bridge fuel to a clean energy future due to its lower emissions compared to other fossil fuels. Right now the natural gas producing and transporting industry wants to cross that bridge in part by exporting U.S. natural gas to foreign countries. Those foreign countries will pay a higher price for natural gas than is currently sold domestically. That means higher profits, more investment and more jobs for the oil and gas industry. Many gas consuming industries, including many businesses who ``are making it in America,'' want to cross that bridge in a different way. These are companies that use gas as a fuel and as input to make a variety of products ranging from chemicals to cars. They want U.S. natural gas to be sold into the domestic market at current prices which will enable them to make higher profits and invest in more job creation. The domestic manufacturing industry warns that if we permit the export of large volumes of our domestic natural gas supply, prices for natural gas in the U.S. will increase. It is unclear what the consequences of a rush to export would be for American manufacturing jobs, as well as for many middle class and lower income Americans. I look forward to hearing from today's witnesses about the importance of natural gas to our manufacturing sector and whether those benefits have been overlooked or under assessed in the debate over liquefied natural gas. We are balancing two very important interests, those that want to export and those that want to retain the natural gas in the United States for consumers and companies that make it in America. The Federal Government should proceed deliberately and carefully on LNG export. In fact, the Federal Government is legally bound to determine what degree of LNG exports is in the ``public interest'' before moving ahead on permitting new export facilities. Currently, the Department of Energy is fulfilling its duty under the Natural Gas Act of 1938 to evaluate the cumulative impacts of allowing the natural gas industry to export U.S. natural gas. The Department of Energy commissioned two reports from the Energy Information Administration and NERA Economic Consulting and is now reviewing more than 200,000 public comments on those reports, including many that are highly critical of the reports' methodologies and conclusions. I would like to hear from our witnesses today whether they feel that the EIA and NERA's report conclusions are comprehensive or leave important questions unanswered or inadequately addressed. I do not believe it is the job of DOE or the Federal Government to choose sides in the natural gas marketplace. This is not what the Natural Gas Act requires. However, it is the job of the Department to hear all sides and determine, on balance, how much liquefied natural gas export is permissible within the ``public interest'' and to make sure that its decision is informed by the best data and analysis. Today's hearing should not be read as an opportunity to influence the DOE's process or to push on the scales of what is in the public interest. The Department is considering all views as it is charged to do by statute. Thank you again, Mr. Chairman, for holding this hearing. I look forward to hearing from our witnesses. Mr. Lankford. Thank you. I now recognize the Chairman of the full committee, Mr. Issa, for an opening statement. Mr. Issa. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. On the screen, I have a slide that I think sets of something of interest for us to bear in mind throughout the hearing. The two circles drawn around areas are areas of major production, one of oil and natural gas at Eagle Ford, the other one of almost all oil but with enough natural gas being flared today that it practically looks like New York City. That is the effect, in no small part, of artificially low natural gas. I think one of the points we have to make here today is that when natural gas falls too low, you end up with it becoming essentially waste fuel. That is not our goal. This is a valuable and clean energy. This is an energy that produces not just the methane we think of as burnable natural gas, but the ethylene that we so often think of for plastics and other uses; the propane, a highly portable fuel that on which America counts. All of this and more in the way of byproducts are part of what we are hoping to get to. The other thing is, for those who talk in terms of clean energy and exports, I just want to point out that in 2012, the United States exported 126 million short tons of coal, a great deal of it to China, our largest partner in that. If you could visualize that, it is 1.4 million railcars of coal. To a great extent, what we are trying to do is export a cleaner fuel, both in its raw form and of course if we burn it in the U.S. and use it in the U.S., in the form of exported product. I believe there is enough fuel, and the studies show there is, to do both. Additionally, today, with a roughly $3.90 cost of a million BTUs, that is about $21 equivalent to a barrel of oil. It is so cheap that Burlington Northern has announced a $2 billion investment to convert diesel locomotives to work on natural gas. For many who find that interesting, let us make something more interesting. We are going to burn natural gas to haul coal to China. That is the reality of what we are doing and that's how plentiful it is. I support all of the use of both liquefied and compressed natural gas because, in fact, it is a clean fuel, a plentiful fuel and an inexpensive fuel. It is going to be part of reducing our trade deficit. Mr. Chairman, in 2012, in spite of increased exports, we had our largest trade deficit since 2008, a whopping $475 billion. Converting to using more natural gas, producing more oil as we are in North Dakota, all of this comes together to reduce our imports, increase our exports and make America more competitive. For those who view, as they should, the lower a fuel stock gets, the lower a raw material gets, the better for domestic business, I concur. However, there comes a point at which a decision has been made by many companies that at $5.77, which is our 10-year average price for natural gas, they are going to bring those jobs to America because that is so much lower than the global price, that, in fact, American businesses remain very competitive with this low cost fuel, still half the cost of using comparable oil. If you look to Japan where they compete with us often, they are looking at nearly $20 equivalent to our $3.95. They pay a lot. They are an important ally. Mr. Chairman, one of the most important things you are bringing about today is a discussion on our NATO allies who find themselves being held hostage both by the Middle East and by Russia and our Asian allies who find themselves simply paying a very high price and feeling fuel is part of their diplomatic decisions. The ability to export at least, in part, a portion from the United States, along with Australia and other countries who are also going to be increasing exports, makes us better neighbors diplomatically and better allies. Last but not least, you pointed out very clearly if we deliberately delay the ability to compete 20 year-plus contracts will go to other nations and will not go to the United States. We are not dealing with whether we do it today or tomorrow, we are dealing with whether delay is working to the detriment of our long term ability to compete in this important fuel. Last but not least, for those who say natural prices will rise, when I have looked at the nature of export contracts, if we get back to the $12.69 peak in 2008 or above, the liquefied natural gas exporters will simply shut that down because it won't be worthwhile. There is a natural stop point on all of this. For all of us who have viewed energy as an important tool of our national defense, as an important tool of our economy, we have a windfall. We need to make sure we have enough of the windfall that we do not flare gas for lack of the price to support infrastructure development. I thank the Chairman for this important hearing. Mr. Lankford. I would like to recognize the Ranking Member of the Full Committee, Mr. Cummings for an opening statement. Mr. Cummings. Thank you very much, Mr. Chairman. Thank you for holding this hearing. I have not reached conclusions; I am coming here today to hear the witnesses so that I can be better informed. Today's hearing focuses on a very important energy policy question. Is it in the public interest to export increasing amounts of natural gas to foreign markets overseas? That is the question. Because of new drilling techniques and other technology advancements, the United States is now able to produce natural gas in geological formations that were once impossible to tap. This new technology has given rise to an emerging industry that is transforming parts of our nation. This recent boom has reduced the price of natural gas and has saved consumers money on their electricity bills and is fueling a resurgence in the domestic manufacturing. Our natural gas has become a competitive advantage in a global market. Because so much natural gas is being produced, paradoxically, it may be placing the natural gas production industry and the jobs in that sector at some risk. As prices fall, some producers may be faced with the prospect of suspending operations or even going out of business. To address that concern, some companies are now seeking to export gas to foreign markets. While that could be a very good thing for United States producers, it raises questions that must be addressed. First, will exports drive up prices for domestic U.S. manufacturers and consumers? Multiple studies have shown that they will. That will mean higher gas prices for consumers, higher prices for manufacturers who want to support and potentially higher prices for goods and services for everyone. The producers contend that increasing exports will increase jobs. That too must be a consideration. By converting import terminals to export terminals, there is likely to be an increase in the number of jobs in certain sectors. God knows, we need more jobs. We also need to understand whether we will be supporting this set of jobs, those in the energy sector, at the expense of another set of jobs in United States manufacturing that rely heavily on natural gas in their operations. Another question we must answer is whether exporting natural gas will more quickly deplete U.S. supplies just as the Country is moving toward greater energy independence. For years, we have heard that the United States must reduce its dependence on foreign energy sources. By increasing gas exports, are we trading part of that independence for short term profits? Third, complex environmental questions regarding some of the techniques used in gas production have not been resolved. I believe it is critical that we give ample attention to how increased production may exacerbate those concerns. Mr. Chairman, as we hear today it is the Department of Energy's job to determine whether exporting more natural gas is in our Nation's best interest, but we will also hear today that studies commissioned by the Department are subject to debate. Some believe that recent studies demonstrate a clear benefit from gas exports while others believe the studies point to the opposite conclusion. Although we may begin to answer some of these important questions at today's hearing, I believe we will also learn that there are a number of key questions that need to be studied more carefully. I want to thank you for holding this hearing and with that, Mr. Chairman, I yield back. Mr. Lankford. Thank you. All members will have seven days to submit opening statements for the record. I will now recognize our panel. Mr. Tom Choi is the National Practice Leader, Gas, Deloitte MarketPoint LLC; Mr. Paul Cicio is President, Industrial Energy Consumers of America; Dr. Charles Ebinger is Director, Foreign Policy, Energy Security Initiative, Brookings Institute; and Mr. Chris Smith is Acting Assistant Secretary for Fossil Energy, U.S. Department of Energy. Thank you all for being here. Pursuant to committee rules, all witnesses are sworn before they testify. Please rise and raise your right hand. Do you solemnly swear or affirm that the testimony you are about to give will be the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth? [Witnesses respond in the affirmative.] Mr. Lankford. Thank you. Let the record reflect that the witnesses answered in the affirmative. In order to allow time for discussion, I would ask you to limit your testimony to five minutes. Watching our clock, we expect votes somewhere around the next 15 minutes, so that would be perfect. We will try to get through all of our testimony and will start with questioning time. If votes call us, then we will put temporarily pause, come back and continue questioning from there. Depending on time and the questioning, as soon as two of us get back, I would like to start questioning again and try to finish as quickly as we can to honor your time as well. Mr. Choi, you are at bat first. We are pleased to receive your testimony. WITNESS STATEMENTS STATEMENT OF TOM CHOI Mr. Choi. Good afternoon, Chairman Lankford, Ranking Member Speier and members of the subcommittee. Thank you for inviting me to testify this afternoon. My name is Tom Choi. I am the National Gas Practice Leader for Deloitte Marketpoint. Deloitte Marketpoint has worked for a number of clients across different industries to help them better understand energy markets. In particular, we have utilized a World Gas Model to help LNG companies seeking objective and in-depth economic analysis of global gas and LNG markets. The key results of our model and our analysis form the basis for my comments this afternoon. The World Gas Model computes prices and quantities based on established microeconomic theories. It has been used by leading energy companies and institutions for over 20 years. Vital to this analysis, the World Gas Model represents natural gas producers' decisions regarding when and how much gas to develop given a producer's resource endowment and anticipated forward prices. The supply-demand dynamic is particularly important in analyzing the impact of demand changes, including LNG exports. Without a proper representation, the results would likely under estimate producer response and over estimate the price impact. It would be tantamount to assuming that the markets would be surprised or unprepared for the volume of exports and in effect, would have to ration fixed supplies to meet export, as well as domestic demand. Our findings show that the price impact to the U.S. is likely to be modest. The impact of 6 Bcfd of U.S. LNG exports on average U.S. prices is projected to be only $.15/MMBtu from 2016 to 2030. Abundant North American gas resources, coupled with the market's demonstrated ability to respond to market changes, mitigate the price impact of exports. Since there is some uncertainty about the magnitude of the potential impact of LNG exports on domestic prices, an examination of the fundamental economic factors might be helpful. I think it is important to separate the timing issue, that is how quickly new supplies can be brought online from the resource depletion issue, how increased demand affects future production costs and prices. Can the U.S. natural gas production keep pace with projected gas demand, including potential LNG exports? If history provides any indication, the answer appears to be yes. In just four years, from 2008-2012, the U.S. dry gas production has increased by over 10 Bcfd a day, demonstrating just how dynamic the U.S. natural gas industry is. Hence, if export volume can be properly anticipated and productive capacity made available when needed, then the price impact will likely be determined by how increased demand affects resource depletion and future production costs. Moreover, it is not just the gas fields feeding directly into LNG export terminals that respond, but rather, the entire highly interconnected North American gas system. Since there is a large quantity of domestic gas available at similar production cost levels, U.S. exports are projected to increase the price of domestic gas not by very much, because it is not likely to change the future production cost by very much. Our model also projects that natural gas prices will likely be greater in importing countries than in the U.S. As prices in the U.S. firm and prices in export markets soften, their price spread will narrow. Hence, markets will check the volume of U.S. LNG imports, even in the absence of policy restrictions. Furthermore, U.S. LNG exports are unlikely to cause prices to rise to levels of importing regions. The cost of liquefaction, shipping and regasification form a large price wedge between prices in the U.S. and those in import markets. Exports will only occur if large price spreads prevail, implying that sectors of the U.S. economy that compete in global markets will not likely see their price advantage significantly diminished as a result of LNG exports. In summary, given the dynamic nature of the North American gas market and the abundance of U.S. gas supplies available at similar cost levels, our model projects modest price impacts at our assumed export volumes. Thank you for this opportunity. I look forward to addressing your questions. [Prepared statement of Mr. Choi follows:] [GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] T0386.001 [GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] T0386.002 [GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] T0386.003 [GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] T0386.004 [GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] T0386.005 Mr. Lankford. Thank you, Mr. Choi. Mr. Cicio. STATEMENT OF PAUL CICIO Mr. Cicio. Thank you for the opportunity to testify before you. I am Paul Cicio, President of Industrial Energy Consumers of America. IECA is a nonpartisan association of leading manufacturing companies with $1.1 trillion in annual sales, over 1,000 facilities nationwide, and with more than 1.4 million employees worldwide. IECA membership represents a diverse set of energy intensive industries including: chemical, plastics, steels, aluminum, paper, food processing, fertilizer, insulation, glass, industrial gases, pharmaceutical, brewing and cement. IECA member companies are energy-intensive and trade- exposed, EITE. For these industries, the cost of energy can be from 10 to 85 percent of the cost of making their products. Our competitiveness is dependent upon the price of energy relative to our offshore competitors. The U.S. manufacturing sector is the largest consumer of natural gas, as a fuel and as a feedstock, and natural gas- fired electricity, consuming approximately 40 percent of all U.S. natural gas. We also consume approximately 30 percent of the electricity. It is important to note that IECA is not opposing LNG exports, although we are very concerned that exports could negatively impact manufacturing competitiveness and jobs. It is for this reason that we urge the DOE to do a better job than what we have seen so far. Even though both DOE-sponsored studies used domestic demand assumptions, I should understated assumptions, the outcome of the study should give public policymakers pause because they confirm one thing, that any level of exports will increase domestic prices for all consumers. Natural gas prices have both direct and indirect impacts on peoples' lives and their safety for homes, for heating, cooling and electricity, for the Nation's economic growth, exports of manufactured products and jobs. Energy intensive manufacturing industries are especially impacted. Specifically page 7 of the flawed NERA study confirmed that ``Expansion of LNG exports has two major effects on income. It raises energy costs and in the prices, depresses both real wages and the return on capital in all other industries'' and from our perspective, with only trivial net benefit to the economy. My comments today will focus on two issues. First, we urge the DOE to implement a rulemaking process to determine public interest determination criteria that will be used on an application by application basis. Secondly, we also urge the DOE to complete the necessary studies to clarify the implications of LNG exports to consumers, the economy and the manufacturing sector using up to date, domestic demand assumptions. DOE must include scenarios that consider pending legislative and regulatory actions that could impact natural gas production and spur domestic demand. Special attention is needed to address the impacts to energy intensive trade exposed industries. The U.S. is at an important crossroads on the subject of LNG exports. If we do this right, the U.S. can export LNG and provide an adequate supply of natural gas at affordable prices to domestic consumers. If we get it wrong, the LNG exports could slow, if not stop, the manufacturing renaissance and every U.S. consumers' price of natural gas and electricity will rise, so much is at stake. Today, the DOE is considering 24 applications to export LNG. In the modern era, the U.S. Government has not faced the need to determine the public interest in connection with requests to authorize exports as large as this. The DOE has extensive experience in evaluating import applications but has limited experience with export applications. Perhaps not surprisingly, there are no clear established criteria for DOE to apply in determining the public interest with regard to natural gas exports. IECA supports an approach to such determinations by DOE that are based on objective criteria and metrics, established through a rulemaking process and applied on an incremental case by case basis consistent and balanced in manner. We urge the Congress to embrace this process. Thank you. [Prepared statement of Mr. Cicio follows:] [GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] T0386.006 [GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] T0386.007 [GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] T0386.008 [GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] T0386.009 [GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] T0386.010 [GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] T0386.011 [GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] T0386.012 [GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] T0386.013 [GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] T0386.014 [GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] T0386.015 [GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] T0386.016 [GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] T0386.017 Mr. Lankford. Thank you. Dr. Ebinger. STATEMENT OF CHARLES EBINGER Dr. Ebinger. Chairman Lankford, Ranking Member Speier and other distinguished subcommittee members, thank you very much for inviting me here today to share my views on U.S. LNG export policy. My name is Charles Ebinger, Director, Energy Security Initiative, Brookings Institution and not the Director of the Foreign Policy Program, for the record. The Energy Security Initiative at Brookings has been studying this issue of LNG for the past two years and last March, issued a comprehensive report. In the interest of time, let me say the report had two primary conclusions. First, the negative implications of LNG exports in the lower 48 States are at best marginal and vastly are outweighed by the benefits. Second, as the lynchpin of a globalized economy, the United States must continue to espouse free trade and avoid intervening in a global market. As we state in our report, ``The United States should neither act to prohibit nor to promote export of LNG, but rather let the existing process, with modifications, work its way through.'' I will not spend much time talking about the economic implications because I think Tom Choi has done an excellent job of that, but merely say we echo Deloitte's findings and that of other major public reports by ICF, EIA and others that we believe that the impact on domestic natural gas prices arising from exports would only be between 2 and 11 percent than they are today by the year 2035, hardly a massive distress to the American public. We also believe that LNG exports are likely to have only a modest impact no electricity prices. Again, studies done by a host of leading economic consulting firms have produced a range of estimates but the conclusion is profound. That is that the average increase in electricity prices per megawatt hour might be somewhere between $1.40 to just under $5.00. To put this in context for those that do not follow megawatt hour pricing, the EIA's annual energy outlook in 2013 estimates that by 2035, the average megawatt price will be $101 a megawatt hour, nearly 95 times bigger than the increase in prices, again hardly devastating to the American consumer. I firmly disagree with the views of people who say we cannot export because it will hurt the prospects of an industrial renaissance in the United States. Today, the ratio of the price of oil to the price of natural gas in the world market is over 30 to 1, well over the 7 to 1 oil to gas price ratio at which the American Chemistry Council considers the U.S. petrochemical and plastic producers to be globally competitive. Let me turn quickly to the issue of geopolitics. Already, we have seen the fact that cargoes planned to be destined to the United States, when we were forecast to import up to 40 percent of our natural gas in the near future have had a major transformation in the European market and have proven to be of benefit to our European allies in both western and central Europe. The advent of LNG coming into that market has reduced the influence of Gazprom, the Russian monopoly on the European gas market and today, rather than dominating the European market, we see a situation where last month nearly 54 percent of the gas that flowed in Europe was under spot contracts, not under long term oil index contracts, saving many of the nations huge quantities of money, particularly some of the more ailing economies in eastern Europe. Already we have seen the impact that LNG exports can have on alleviating the terrible situations in Asia with index pricing already beginning to come down away from oil and towards natural gas which will be of vital assistance to our major Allies. Finally, let me turn quickly to say we believe it is a prudent policy to continue to allow exports. We disagree with the two extreme proposals of the volumetric gap or a policy where the U.S. automatically approves all applications. We do, as we say in our testimony in greater detail, believe there are reforms that may occur in the process and we hope they will be seriously considered, both by our Administration and by members of Congress with oversight on these issues. Thank you very much. [Prepared statement of Dr. Ebinger follows:] [GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] T0386.018 [GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] T0386.019 [GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] T0386.020 [GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] T0386.021 [GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] T0386.022 [GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] T0386.023 [GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] T0386.024 [GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] T0386.025 [GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] T0386.026 [GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] T0386.027 Mr. Lankford. Thank you. After 30 minutes of talking about DOE, it will be great to hear from DOE. We are honored that you are here and glad you are a part of this conversation. Mr. Smith, we are pleased to receive your testimony. STATEMENT OF CHRIS SMITH Mr. Smith. Thank you very much, Mr. Chairman. Thank you, Chairman Lankford, Ranking Member Speier and members of the subcommittee. I appreciate the opportunity to discuss the Department of Energy's program regulating the export of natural gas, including liquefied natural gas. The boom in domestic shale gas provides unprecedented opportunities for the United States. Over the last several years, domestic natural gas production has increased significantly, outpacing consumption growth, resulting in declining natural gas and LNG imports. Production growth is primarily due to the development of improved drilling technologies, including the ability to produce natural gas trapped in shale gas geologic formations. Historically, the Department of Energy has played a critical role in development of technologies that have enabled the United States to expand development of our energy resources. Between 1978 and 1992, public resource investments managed by the Department contributed to the development of hydraulic fracturing and extended horizontal lateral technologies that spurred private sector investments and industry innovation, unlocking billions of dollars in economic activity associated with shale gas. Today, domestic natural gas prices are lower than international prices of delivered LNG to overseas markets. As in the United States, demand for natural gas is growing rapidly in foreign markets. Due primarily to these developments, the Department of Energy has begun to receive a growing number of applications to export domestically produced natural gas to overseas markets in the form of liquefied natural gas. The Department's authority to regulate the export of natural gas arises from the Natural Gas Act which provides two statutory standards for processing applications to export LNG from the United States. By law, applications to export natural gas to Free Trade Agreement nations are deemed to be consistent with the public interest and the Secretary of Energy must grant authorization without modification or delay. For applications to export natural gas to non-FTA nations, the Secretary must grant the authorization unless after opportunity for hearing, the proposed export is found to be not consistent with the public interest. The Department's review of applications to export LNG to non-Free Trade Agreement countries is conducted through a publicly-transparent process which includes full public interest review. To date, the Department of Energy has granted one long term application to export domestically-produced, lower 48 LNG to non-Free Trade Agreement countries. In the Sabine Pass Order, the Department of Energy stated that it would evaluate the cumulative impact of the Sabine Pass authorization and any future authorizations for export authority when considering subsequent authorizations. Following issuance of that order, the Department undertook a two-part study of the cumulative economic impacts of LNG exports. The first part of the study was conducted by the Energy Information Administration and looked at the potential impact of additional natural gas exports on domestic energy consumption, production and prices under several prescribed export scenarios. The second part of the study, performed by NERA Economic Consulting under contract to the Department of Energy, evaluated the macroeconomic impact of LNG exports on the U.S. economy with an emphasis on the energy sector and natural gas, in particular. To date, the Department has received 188,000 initial comments and about 2,700 reply comments on these two studies. Now that all comments are received regarding the LNG export studies, the Department will take into consideration the studies, the comments and the record of the proceedings of the 19 non-FTA LNG export applications. The Department will then make a public interest determination and act on each of these applications on a case by case basis. Due to the adjudicatory nature of this process, I will be unable to comment today on issues that are presently being addressed in our opinion proceedings. Those issues include but are not limited to the merit of pending applications, the validity of the two-part macroeconomic study, the study's adequacy as the basis for decisions and the appropriate scope of environmental review. I can, however, speak to DOE's statutory authority, our process to review applications to export LNG to non-FTA countries, our two-part LNG export studies, the comments we have received on those studies and other recent developments in LNG export. With respect to those topics, the Department and I are committed to being as responsive as possible to any questions the committee may have today. In conclusion, Mr. Chairman, I would like to emphasize that the Department of Energy is committed to moving this process forward as expeditiously as possible. The Department understands the significance of this issue as well as the importance of getting it right. With that, I would be happy to answer any questions the committee may have. [Prepared statement of Mr. Smith follows:] [GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] T0386.028 [GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] T0386.029 [GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] T0386.030 [GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] T0386.031 [GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] T0386.032 Mr. Lankford. Thank you. I ask unanimous consent to place in the record the statement of Dr. David Montgomery, the Senior Vice President of NERA Consulting. Without objection, so ordered. [The information follows:] [GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] T0386.033 [GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] T0386.034 [GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] T0386.035 [GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] T0386.036 [GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] T0386.037 [GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] T0386.038 [GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] T0386.039 [GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] T0386.040 Mr. Lankford. We have a vote that has been called at this point. It is a single vote, so that makes it rapid to go over and come back. We will take a momentary recess. I would like to reiterate something Mr. Smith asked, a personal privilege for the members of the committee when they go through the asking of the questions. I would like for us not to get into a specific application from a specific company, where they are in the process, how they can move in the process. I think that is unfair to be able to ask Mr. Smith. Obviously, each of us can choose what we ask on our own time and on questions, but I would ask that out of respect for DOE for being here to be able to honor them in that, process questions rather than a specific company and whether they are moving a specific permit. With that, we will stand in recess for a single vote. We will return. As soon as two of us get back here, we will continue with our questions. [Recess.] Mr. Lankford. Thank you for being able to recess for a short period, have the votes and jump back into it. I would like to recognize the Ranking Member, Ms. Speier, for a quick motion. Ms. Speier. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I would like to ask unanimous consent that the written testimony by the American Public Gas Association be submitted for the record. Mr. Lankford. Without objection. [The information follows:] [GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] T0386.041 [GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] T0386.042 [GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] T0386.043 [GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] T0386.044 [GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] T0386.045 [GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] T0386.046 [GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] T0386.047 [GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] T0386.048 [GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] T0386.049 [GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] T0386.050 [GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] T0386.051 [GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] T0386.052 [GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] T0386.053 [GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] T0386.054 [GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] T0386.055 Mr. Lankford. I would like to recognize myself for five minutes of questioning. Then we will move back and forth and allow members to ask questions. If we have an opportunity, schedule allowing, we would like to be able to do a second round if time permits for both the witnesses and us as well. We are at a 14 year low of actually gas well producing rigs and 1999 was the last time we had this small a number of rigs out there producing natural gas. It is an interesting dynamic to see very little production coming into the stream but because we have so much currently being produced in the wells that are out there and makes this conversation about the cumulative impact and the decision is very difficult for DOE. The first export facility has been permitted. They are in the process of construction and will be done some time in two years from now. When you begin to evaluate, from the DOE perspective, cumulative impact, how will that work process- wise? Because obviously we have one facility and will not really know the impact of that truly for maybe four or five years as we go through the process. You have the two studies in hand, now what on determining cumulative impact? Mr. Smith. Thank you, Mr. Chairman, for that question. Essentially the way the Department has handled this, when we issued the permit for Sabine Pass, in that permit we noted for future applications, since we were looking at queue of applications that were building up, we would have to consider the cumulative impact of each of those applications and going through our public interest determination. The first step we did was to commission a study. The first part was conducted by EIA and the second part was conducted by NERA Economic Consulting. The idea of doing the studies and offering the studies for public comment was to provide some sort of analytic rigor to looking at what the production capability of the natural gas industry in the United States and the capability of the global gas market to absorb gas in the United States. That was the process we undertook. The NERA study is now back and has been put out for public record. We have entered a public comment and reply comment period and have received responses. It is our job now to evaluate not only the study we received, which was done for the Department, but also the cumulative comments that we received from stakeholders and individuals interested in the process. Mr. Lankford. How does that work from here? Is the cumulative impact an economic impact, a forecasting, is it a matter of they have to function for a while before that is determined or can you do that off the study and the responses? Mr. Smith. That is the process we are going through right now. We have something around 200,000 comments and reply comments that we are evaluating. Our job is to take the studies that have been provided, that have been put out for public comment, evaluate the rigor of the studies and also the opinions we received from the stakeholders. Mr. Lankford. I understand. Once it comes back, is the issue really just the evaluation from the studies or will you have to wait to permit numbers two, three or whatever may be, if you permit two and three, until after the existing facility that is under construction is done and is actually exporting? When will that decision be made? Will it be before the export begins two years from now or after? Mr. Smith. The answer to that question is going to be determined by the analysis we are currently undergoing. The reply comment period just ended three weeks ago. We are now looking at a tremendous amount of information we just received. Mr. Lankford. That is the reply on the initial. You had the initial that went out, all those comments went out and then there was reply. That is really the second phase of it, correct? Mr. Smith. There were two periods. The reply was 45 days and the reply comment was 30 days. Mr. Lankford. The question in making the decision is do you forecast the decision, what to do with applications to and on after the facility under construction is already exporting or before? Mr. Smith. That is going to be determined by our analysis of the comments. Mr. Lankford. It could be four years from now before the second decision is made? Is there a time period you are looking at of when to make the next decision or is it that wide open, could be ten years or two years? Mr. Smith. I am not in a position to opine on something that is going to be based on a determination or analysis we are currently conducting. Mr. Lankford. Does DOE feel at all an economic pressure of what happens globally on these contracts? By the way, I do not intend to pressure DOE. I am just trying to figure out what is going on with this one way or the other. Globally, the contracts are going out. As I mentioned, there are eight export facilities being constructed currently in Australia and other countries are ramping up for this. There is a limited amount of time that we have to be able to compete in the global market and be able to fulfill contracts that are out there. If this is going to be ten years before the next facility is constructed, that is a significant lag to try to get those contracts. The guess is where do we go as a nation? How big is that window you anticipate before a decision is made? Mr. Smith. Again, Mr. Chairman, I am not in a position to put out a timeline for making decisions because that timeline is going to be based on the very analysis that we are in the middle of right now. Mr. Lankford. When do you think you will have concluded your analysis? As you go through all the comments, you are in the second phase of that, do you think that is another 45 days, another six months, another year? Give us a best guess on how that moves. Mr. Smith. Mr. Chairman, it would be inappropriate and irresponsible for me to make a guess. Mr. Lankford. I would have to disagree, it is inappropriate to have an indefinite period of time to decide when you are going to decide. At some point, there has to be something in your forecasting to think we are going to decide by this point and then the decision will be out from there. Mr. Smith. The comment period ended three weeks ago. We are currently going through an immense volume of input. Many of the commenters have made comments very consistent with the points you are making, so I understand the sense of urgency and the importance of this decision. Mr. Lankford. It has to be right. Mr. Smith. But we have to make the decision in a way that is consistent with public interest and that withstands the scrutiny it is certainly going to receive. Mr. Lankford. Thank you. I will recognize Ms. Speier for five minutes. Ms. Speier. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Mr. Smith, let us get to what your challenge is, which is to determine whether or not approving or authorizing the process to move forward for liquid natural gas to be exported is consistent with the public interest. Can you be more specific about the criteria you have to include in that evaluation? Mr. Smith. The statute essentially creates a rebuttable presumption that exports are in the public interest. It is our job to look at each application to make that determination. The law gives the Department of Energy considerable latitude in determining what that means. In fact you opined that when the law was written, one was not envisioning the export of natural gas from shale gas resources. That was just not something that was on the horizon. Our job has been to come up with a standard which we are going to have to defend when we write the order. We are looking at a wide range of factors that Americans care about, everything from balance of trade, creation of jobs, GDP, impact of prices on consumers and American families, impact of prices on American industry, energy security and environmental issues. We have a wide range of factors we have to consider. For me, it is illustrative to be sitting next to Mr. Ebinger, Mr. Cicio and Mr. Choi, all professionals whose work I am familiar with outside of this hearing, but all who have somewhat divergent views on what this means. Ms. Speier. Let me ask, Mr. Cicio, in your statement you said any level of exports will increase cost of natural gas for consumers. That was pretty blanketed in that statement. Can you express that more specifically? Mr. Cicio. I am referring to the two studies, the EIA study done in January of last year and the NERA study. Both of them used a broad number of volume of exports. Under every scenario, prices of natural gas rose. That is where our comment came from. Ms. Speier. Mr. Choi, you make evaluations based on whether or not they are good investments for the oil and gas industry, is that correct? Mr. Choi. We have a model that looks at producer decisions based on a profit maximization objective for the producer. Ms. Speier. When you speak up, you are speaking from a perspective of it being advantageous for the producers as opposed to whether it is advantageous for domestic manufacturers or the domestic consumers, correct? Mr. Choi. Yes. We have a model of the NASR gas industry in which we represent producer decisions and also consumer decisions. Our model is different from most other models in that we represent the individual incentives by each of the parties. It is not purely looking at the incentives for one particular sector but rather, representing the industry by looking at how each individual agent would make decisions. Ms. Speier. Dr. Ebinger, I actually read your report. One of the things you stated in the report is that there would be harm or impact, I should say, to low income consumers with the exportation of LNG and that there should be some set aside of whatever sales tax or revenue the Federal Government gets to make sure low income people would have some form of subsidy because of the increased cost to consumers, is that correct? Dr. Ebinger. Yes. We did not go into great detail in looking at what that real impact would be but it was certainly our conclusion that low income consumers would have some price impacts. Again, I would like to emphasize that taken in the wide sweep of the benefits of exports, however those needs are met for the low income consumers, we believe overall, the nation would be much better off with exports. Ms. Speier. I will yield back, Mr. Chairman, until the second round. Thank you. Mr. Lankford. Dr. Gosar. Mr. Gosar. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Mr. Cicio, the rates are artificially low right now, are they not? Mr. Cicio. Natural gas prices are low, yes. Mr. Gosar. So we are not really being truthful to the American public, as the Ranking Member mentioned. We are going to see a natural increase because if we do not, we are not going to see production, true? Mr. Cicio. That is true. In fact, the NIMEX price between now and 2020 increases 44 percent. Mr. Gosar. Mr. Ebinger, you just heard Mr. Smith's comments about timelines. How do you view that timeline from your perspective? Dr. Ebinger. I view that timeline as very deleterious to the U.S. natural gas industry because, according to our analysis by 2020, if you are not in the marketplace by one of our first few LNG plants, you are going to have very serious competition. The Chairman has mentioned the projects coming out of Australia. By the early 2020s, we will see major new gas projects arising in east Africa, Algeria, Angola and many other places. We also remind people in our report that in the Asian power market, coal remains extremely competitive with LNG and despite our efforts to curtail global warming, we see massive new coal deposits coming into the international market. Coal is going to be competing directly against gas. As we move into the 2020 period, particularly the ten year time frame that was potentially mentioned, I think we can assume there will be at least a handful of additional countries that come up with their own shale gas development, be that in China, South Africa or Argentina. We are going to have more shale gas, more LNG with the prospect of big pipelines coming from eastern Siberia and Russia to the Asian market which will also compete against LNG. It is not going to be easy to finance a big LNG project when the competition is so great and you have to get your buyer to take a huge proportion of the sales in order to get the project financed. Mr. Gosar. From what you have seen of our previous history in this country about getting projects like this online, give me an estimate of getting it online by 2020. My dad is a geologist, so 30 days, 60 days, 90 days, 120 days, three months, six months. They all come at cost and within the bureaucracy of government. What is your best estimate of getting it done? Dr. Ebinger. I think it is an impossible question to answer because DOE and FERC do have statutory responsibilities. Mr. Gosar. Isn't there a way to streamline the process? Dr. Ebinger. I would certainly think we could have some additional plants in the market by 2020, 2022, if we were able to get the process moving beyond the first Cheniere project that we could probably see two or three projects in the marketplace by 2025, say. I think anybody who thinks we are going to have more or the fearmongers that list all the projects before DOE and FERC argue that all these were built, we would collapse the international LNG market. We see no scenario where that is going to happen. Mr. Gosar. I agree. Do you see, Mr. Smith, in regards to the protocol? Looking at timelines, it is very, very frustrating to America, by not having a timeline that is equivocally pretty close to an outline. Does that make sense? Mr. Smith. I appreciate that Congressman. One think I would like to emphasize is it is our job to get to a defendable, transparent a decision as expeditiously as possible. We have a tremendous sense of urgency for this process. Many of the points that have been made by members of the committee and by my friends on the panel have certainly been made multiple times on both sides of the fence in the numerous comments we have received in our public comment period. Our job is to move forward as expeditiously as possible, but in a way that is open, transparent and which yields a decision which will withstand the scrutiny that it is certain to receive. A point we emphasize as we go through our own internal adjudication is that a decision that does not withstand scrutiny is not going to be useful for the concerns you have and it will be a wrong decision for the country. This is something that is important. We are talking about a period of analysis that we discussed here but this is infrastructure that will be in place, if built, for decades. These are long term decisions and are going to lead to long term investments that will be important for our economy. We have to get this right. Mr. Gosar. That is only if you do them within the time frame that makes it economically feasible. If you don't, you are done. Mr. Smith. On that, I would state I spent 11 years in industry before I came to the Department of Energy. I actually worked at Chevron when Chevron was working on the LNG import terminal at Sabine Pass and I worked on that terminal. I did a lot of that commercial work. Industry will move forward to build what it decides to build. Certainly falling into a window where you think the market is open sometimes is good for the shareholders of that company, sometimes it is not. It is not our job to opine on what the company should be doing. We have to make sure that our process is managed in the public interest to make sure we are looking out for the public interest of American businesses and families, that it is consistent, open, transparent and will withstand scrutiny. Mr. Gosar. Thank you. Mr. Lankford. Mrs. Lujan Grisham. Mrs. Lujan Grisham. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I am actually going to reverse my order of questions because this is what happens when you are nearly last on a panel. Mr. Smith, given your now testimony and description of a pretty in-depth process to make sure we get it right in terms of the public interest and considering that we have trade agreements with our Allies and we are mindful and watchful about those compliance issues, are you reaching out to those other federal agencies and stakeholders when you are talking about those folks you are working with in the public interest to get this right? Mr. Smith. We are trying to be as open and transparent as possible, so we like input from a diverse field of stakeholders. Mrs. Lujan Grisham. I appreciate that, but are you also reaching out? Are you in a position to maintain objectivity where you are waiting for people to come to you? Mr. Smith. The process works such that we have an open comment period, 45 days for entities to make comments and there is a reply comment period. Anything we are going to consider as part of the adjudicatory process has to be entered in the public record, so that is our primary vehicle for making sure we have an open and diverse group of stakeholders who are opining on the process. Mrs. Lujan Grisham. I would just encourage you on that note that without interfering with the due process required here and to get it right, and I am mindful and appreciative of the fact that the public interest issues are paramount and get this right so that we make the right decisions going forward, that you are also reaching out and coordinating with our other administrative partners who are going to have similar issues and interests. I appreciate that and encourage you within the context of that process to do that. Mr. Choi, I am from New Mexico and very excited about the positive potential here for natural gas and exporting liquid natural gas. In my home State, it accounts for one-tenth of the U.S. total and the San Juan and Permian Basins, neither of which by the way are in my district, but create really the economic foundation for our State. Unfortunately, as you all have indicated, the low price of natural gas has led to a drop off in natural gas production and it has negatively impacted many parts of New Mexico's economy, especially our State tax revenues that depend heavily on severance taxes and other revenue raisers from gas production. In the context of difficult economic times, the prospect that we can increase natural gas exports and increase economic activity and create jobs in my State is particularly encouraging. As you discussed, we need to examine the issue carefully and ensure that we are protecting consumers, domestic manufacturing jobs and the environment as we consider exporting our surplus natural gas. Without reading the rest of that statement, the issue I am getting to, you talked about in the short term, I am really interested, given the low price of natural gas today and the supply and demand influences, I want you to talk to me a bit about whether the processes we are undertaking today can bring stability in the long term for natural gas in terms of the price indexes? Mr. Choi. Are you talking about the regulator process or the market process? Mrs. Lujan Grisham. Both. Mr. Choi. I am more familiar with the market process, having worked with a number of companies. I can tell you that they are undergoing a very deliberate and careful process because a lot of the companies seeking to export LNG are the same companies that have been burned by building import terminals in this country. They are not going to rush towards anything that puts their investments at risk. Part of the interest in exporting LNG is the abundance of natural gas that we have in this country. U.S. gas production has continued to increase. You might have seen a bit of decline in your home State because some of the production has shifted from dry gas areas to more liquid rich areas. The total U.S. production continues to grow. At the present time, I believe the market is more demand constrained than it is supply constrained. There are wells that have been completed but not yet connected just because there is a lack of demand or possibly because of lack of infrastructure to take the gas away to markets. I believe the market is well equipped to determine how much LNG export would be economic. There could be some increase in price, but according to economic theory, any increase in demand will have some increase in price. Just because there is a price increase is really a pretty innocuous statement; the question is how much of a price increase will there be? According to our study, that price increase will be fairly modest because of how dynamic the market is and because of how much domestic resources we have in this country. Mrs. Lujan Grisham. Given the huge fluctuations in the market, it would be nice if there was a sense given that the potential here for broadening our exports, that we might be able to have a little more long term stability in the market by the appropriate effort between the two, market supply and demand, a response and an appropriate regulatory environment so that you do not have these huge fluctuations. You could then get to a place where we can do consumer protection by some other model if necessary in that case. Mr. Choi. I agree with that. Just because we have exports, I don't believe necessarily means that price volatility would increase in this country. In addition to exporters securing long term markets through long term supply contracts, they would also have supply contracts or supplies that are ready to support their export terminals. The supply will respond to the increase in demand. Mrs. Lujan Grisham. Thank you. I yield back. Mr. Farenthold. [Presiding]. Thank you very much. At this point, I think I am next on the list right at the time I take the center chair, so perfect timing for me. I will now recognize myself for five minutes. Mr. Choi, you talk about an abundance of natural gas and not a whole lot of price volatility with the addition of exports. Can you give us an idea just how much natural gas we think there is in some of these new shale finds? Mr. Choi. It is not just shale finds, it is the total domestic resource base which includes conventional supplies, shale gas, coal bed methane and other types. Mr. Farenthold. Assuming projected growth in world demand, how many years supply are we looking at? Mr. Choi. By most accounts, we have over 2,000 bcf of natural gas in the United States. At our current production levels, that is equivalent to about 100 years. Mr. Farenthold. In shale gas, we only recover with our fracking technology about a third of what is there with today's technology? Mr. Choi. The technology is constantly improving and we are able to recover more. The shale gas comprises a growing share of our total U.S. production. Mr. Farenthold. Mr. Smith, are you familiar with the concept of being in the right place at the right time? That is where you want to be, right? Mr. Smith. You would have to clarify that question. Mr. Farenthold. I guess what I am getting at is I don't know whether it is coincidence or divine providence or whatever, but to me it looks like our technology in the energy industry is pulling this country out of a recession kicking and screaming. I am going to mix my metaphors here, strike while the iron is hot. If the blacksmith industry had to go through a burdensome regulatory process while the tire industry was developing, we would miss the ability sell a lot of horseshoes because cars come into existence. I guess what I am getting at is the Federal Government is spending a lot of money on alternative energies. I think a breakthrough in battery technology makes a whole lot of alternative energies work a whole lot better. Are we not possibly at a unique time in history where we have a lot of natural gas, there is a market for it and we could make some money off it if we did something now? Mr. Smith. Congressman, what I can say is that there are certainly a large number of commenters of the 200,000 comments we are going through now that have made exactly the point you are making. We certainly have a sense of urgency to as expeditiously as possible get to a open and transparent. Mr. Farenthold. I know that Chairman Issa showed this slide where you can actually see in the dark the Balkan field and the Eagle Ford Shale in Texas which I am blessed to have touch the district I represent. I am also going to show you a map, a Baker Hughes map, that shows all the rigs currently in production. The red ones are gas, the blue ones are oil. There is no gas being produced in the Balkans because there is no market for it and at the current prices, they cannot afford to build a pipeline. They basically are just burning it. It is a huge waste of what potentially is a very valuable resource. We are seeing gas prices that are just above $3.00, $3.25 or so, in Texas. It is great for us. We have steel plants coming in, we have plastic plants coming in, we have LNG companies looking to come in and export. We have some red ones because we have the pipeline infrastructure to do it and market. What we hear from producers is in addition to having to get pipelines, which are expensive to build and another regulatory burden, I only need say the word Keystone, that is a problem. Then you zoom in down here and see there are also gas wells offshore in Louisiana. These are traditional, horizontal wells. You are not seeing the development of the gas wells because you cannot produce a horizontal gas well at $3 gas. The gas we are getting out of these horizontal wells is being produced along with oil or other liquids. It is not economical to even pursue it. We could lose this boom if we do not get a market. I guess I want to make sure you all are aware of the urgency of getting this done. Then you look at what is going on now in Japan after the terrible tragedy there, they are looking to decommission their nuclear facilities and go with natural gas. Wouldn't it be cool to actually have something to sell back to them for all those electronics we are bringing over here to get the balance of trade? This is the time. I just want to make sure you guys understand that. There really is that sense of urgency. Mr. Smith. Thank you for those comments, Congressman. Those are all factors we are considering. I grew up in Ft. Worth, Texas in the Labar Neck Shale. I have seen firsthand the difference that some of these developments can make. We also understand all the other balancing factors. We want to make sure we make a good public interest determination and we need to move forward as quickly as possible in a way that is open and transparent. Mr. Farenthold. I appreciate that. I am a relatively newcomer in Washington but I do know one of the best ways to kill something is delay. I hope any delay we are doing is necessary and not intentional. My time has expired. Mr. Horsford, you are next for five minutes. Mr. Horsford. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Thank you to the panelists for being here today. I am from Nevada and we also have natural gas facilities in our State. It is both a blessing and a curse. On the one hand, prices are at an all time low. These low prices have benefitted the manufacturers, the consumers and household users. On the other hand, these low prices are at adversely affecting many producers of natural gas. Going forward, as policymakers, we have difficult questions to answer. One of the areas I feel we have to address beyond corporate profitability also pertains to our security, jobs and households. I would like to ask the panel, Mr. Cicio, you say in your testimony your organization is not opposing LNG exports but you ``remain very concerned that exports could negatively impact manufacturing competitiveness and U.S. jobs.'' Why is that and is there a way to calculate how many U.S. manufacturing jobs could be lost or not created if LNG exports are allowed to proceed? Mr. Cicio. It is difficult to answer the second part of you question. What I can do is tell you that these prices have clearly started the manufacturing renaissance. There are upwards to $95 billion of new capital investments by chemical companies, nitrogen fertilizer for plastics, steel, glass and these new facilities are going to create upwards to six to eight bcf a day. With those announcements, we are talking about a 10 percent increase in demand for natural gas. Every month, there are new announcements. In our view when I talk to my companies, in my view this is the first wave. The commodity, as we call them, the building blocks, the kind of companies I mentioned they supply energy intensive block products to every manufacturer in the country. As this new capacity for this building block material--the plastics, chemicals and nitrogen fertilizer--comes on stream, our customers will be expanding. We are quite optimistic about the demand side, but it is very difficult, other than to do a study much like the DOE has done, to determine what negative impact it would have at a specific price going forward. Mr. Horsford. As we have heard, those in the oil and gas sectors believe that failure to permit foreign exports of LNG could severely undermine that industry and would ultimately affect current and future jobs. Do they have a valid concern, do you think? Mr. Cicio. Manufacturers have a valid concern, yes, they do. Higher prices, just from 1999, natural gas prices doubled, then tripled and peaked in 2008. In that time period, I saw almost 55,000 manufacturing facilities shut down. A lot of it was related to high prices of natural gas. There is an absolute relationship between the price of natural gas, the price of electricity and manufacturing competitiveness. Mr. Horsford. Is there the proposition of you said the kind of winner take all where it is to the benefit of one sector and to the detriment of another? Mr. Cicio. No. Mr. Horsford. Can there be a balance? Mr. Cicio. That is correct. Our testimony bears this out. If we have a process at the Department of Energy that takes into consideration the public interest and balances, we should be able to export and we should be able to provide affordable prices of natural gas for domestic consumers. Mr. Horsford. Mr. Choi, what do you say about that? Mr. Choi. First of all, I think we need to realize that between 2004 and 2008, U.S. natural gas prices rose to unprecedented sustained levels. Prices during that time ranged from about $7 to $10 per mmbtu. Nobody I am aware of is saying exports will bring prices up to those levels. The advent of the shale gas revolution, which used the hydraulic fracturing and horizontal drilling to make vast amounts of shale gas economical, has fundamentally changed the picture. Even with exports, we are not going to see prices at that level in the future. Mr. Horsford. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I will wait for additional questions. Mr. Farenthold. Thank you. It is interesting where we see this side of the aisle agreeing with the DOE and Brookings and not always with the industry. At this point, I need to ask for unanimous consent for the gentleman from Louisiana, Dr. Fleming to sit as a member of this subcommittee. Without objection, so ordered. Up next is Mr. Turner. Mr. Turner, you are recognized for five minutes. Mr. Turner. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I appreciate our panelists because it is certainly an important discussion as we look to the issue of job creation and energy policy. In Ohio alone, it is expected that Utica Shale would have a $5 billion economic impact and create or supply nearly 66,000 jobs in Ohio by 2014. I appreciate the discussion that we have great opportunity to export and that the price spikes we had in the past were the result of the fact we did not have the access to or the abundance of supply that we are now seeing. Dr. Ebinger and Mr. Choi, in your reports you both touched on the issue of the geopolitical implications of exporting U.S. natural gas. I would like to speak to that for a minute and ask you a question. When we look to the U.S. interests and certainly domestic economic benefits, we also need to look to the issue of the geopolitical implications of our being able to export. As both of you have noted, Russia has a major role as a supplier of natural gas and is a non-reliable exporter to the European countries. They use it as a political tool, punishing our European allies, especially eastern Europe, and use it to try to divide the EU and NATO countries as they put pressure on individual countries to adopt policies favorable to Russian positions. I have a bill, H.R. 580, the Expedited LNG for American Allies Act, that would expand the ability to export LNG to our NATO partners and to Japan to allow expedited approval for that export. This is a bill that initially had been championed by Senator Lugar. It is a bipartisan and bicameral piece of legislation. I think it would be very important to give that expedited opportunity, not only increasing our markets, lowering the overall bureaucratic process for export, but also have an impact in the Pacific region with respect to Russia's export. Dr. Ebinger and Mr. Choi, would you please elaborate on your positions and thoughts as to the geopolitical effects of U.S exports to those regions? Dr. Ebinger. Thank you, Congressman. Yes, I would thoroughly agree with your characterization of what LNG cargoes diverted from the U.S., since we no longer need them, have played in the European market. The big reason for that is that in most of the world outside the United States, petrochemicals are derived from naphtha, an oil-based product, rather than from natural gas, making them much more costly. We have seen LNG cargoes allow the Europeans, as some of their longstanding contracts with Gazprom have come up for renegotiation, to use the availability of natural gas to delink a large portion of their supply from Russia and in some cases, get significant price concessions from the Russians. My only concern about your bill, I think it is very admirable and we certainly support our NATO and European allies, is that one has to be very careful because having just returned from a significant gas conference in Amsterdam, it does appear, listening to the Europeans, that they believe for the next ten years the European gas market is saturated. Part of that is, of course, the depressed economic condition prevailing in Europe, which obviously can switch around at some point in time, we hope, but I will only caution that if we were to direct U.S. LNG cargoes there, it might be good that we could drive prices down further but it might not necessarily be good for our own exporters if they found that to penetrate that very glutted market, they had to significantly redirect it. Mr. Turner. The bill doesn't redirect it, but streamlines the bureaucratic process for those who are doing that. Mr. Choi? Mr. Choi. In our latest paper, we looked at the global implications of U.S. LNG exports. In order to understand what the impacts would be, you have to look at each market and examine what the marginal source is. The marginal source might not be just what is currently being exported, it could also be future supplies. These supplies could be marginal either because they have high production costs or high transportation costs, or possibly because of political hurdles that make these supplies effectively more costly to come to market. I am talking about the supplies such as from Iran or possibly Venezuela. You mentioned Russia. Russia is the largest gas exporter to Europe. They are vulnerable, according to our study, because not only do they have the largest volumes, but they are also the highest cost contract supplied to the European market. We believe if the U.S. exports to Europe, which is one of our scenarios, Russian supplies would be vulnerable. Mr. Turner. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Mr. Farenthold. Thank you, very much. We will now recognize the gentleman from Louisiana, Dr. Fleming, for five minutes. Mr. Fleming. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I thank the committee for allowing the courtesy today to sit in and I appreciate the panel here today. I come from the 4th District of Louisiana which has the Haynesville Shale. The Haynesville Shale, as you know, in the period around 2007 to 2008, we had nothing less than a revolution in marrying the old technology of hydro-fracking and the new technology of horizontal drilling, which has released tremendous wealth and economic activity which has really sustained my district through difficult economic times. We are victims of our own success, unfortunately. As a result of that, as you know, the price has been well displayed here, and has been depressed because of all of the production, so we have gone from excessive demand and little supply to excessive supply and relatively the same demand, which is kind of interesting because our friends on the other side of the aisle assure us the high cost of gasoline and oil has nothing to do with supply and demand, it is speculation. We would like to have a little speculation in natural gas if that would be okay with you gentlemen just to get that price up a little bit because we have had a number of actual drilling sites that we have not moved forward on because it is just not economically viable. The other piece is in Lake Charles, we have the Cheniere plant which is an incoming supply depot for LNG because we have been net importers. Now they are spending $10 billion to make it a net export facility and we are glad about that. We will be well positioned for the future not only to take care of our own needs, but to take care of the needs of the world when it comes to this revolution. I have a couple of questions today. Mr. Smith, what are the criteria for approving one terminal over another? Is geography a factor, a region already has a facility or other projects that may be less advantageous? How do you decide about that because we are waiting on final permitting and approval with our plant? Mr. Smith. As you are aware, and as you stated in your comments, we have already approved one export facility and that is the Sabine Pass facility in Louisiana. Subsequent to that, now that we are looking at cumulative impact of another additional 28.2 billion cubic feet a day of potential exports, one of the things we have announced as we go through our process is we do have a queue, we have a sequence we are going to use in order to determine the order in which we are going to evaluate the export opportunities. We took all of the applicants before the Department and divided them into two categories, ones which had submitted their FERC pre-filing application, the process where you start spending more significant quantities of money, and those who had no filed for pre-filing. Within those, it is on a first come, first serve basis. There is a list. There is a pdf on the DOE website and you can see the next applicant we are going to consider and you can see the last applicant. We are going to work through that queue looking at all the factors we have announced as part of our public interest determination, everything from jobs, balance of trade, economic impact on consumers, prices, impact on industry, international issues, economic and environmental issues, a wide range of factors we are going to use in order to evaluate each one of those applicants. Mr. Fleming. Do you do some en bloc or are they all one on one? Mr. Smith. We are compelled by statute to evaluate each of these on an individual basis. Mr. Fleming. What about the non-FTA countries? What is the policy towards them? Are they still in the queue? Mr. Smith. The law breaks up applicants into two categories, FTAs and non-FTAs. Free Trade Agreement countries essentially are approved without delay or modification by the Department. There is no discretion that is exercised, under statute, by the Department. Those are being approved as we receive them. It is the non-FTA applicants we are evaluating. Mr. Fleming. Is that there to say there is going to be difficulty in approving them? What are going to be the challenges in getting approvals for them? Mr. Smith. There is a process. As I mentioned earlier, it is illustrative that even on this panel you have individuals who think should be approved immediately and all of them should be approved; there are a lot of voices who think there are concerns with exporting LNG in terms of rising prices. There are lots of arguments being made. We received somewhere on the order of 200,000 comments in addition to the studies we received, some of which we requested. It is our job to look at all the factors so that as expeditiously as possible as transparently as possible and as quickly as possible, we get to a public interest determination that is going to inspire the right type of confidence in terms of its ability to withstand the scrutiny it is certain to attract. That is the process we are in right now. Mr. Fleming. I certainly want to underscore that we should encourage approval of non-FTA countries as well. It will be good for the global economy, it will help our prices. You just heard that we have more natural gas now than we ever thought we had in the past and probably with newer technologies coming online, we will have even more in the future. It is not that we want to drive up prices; we want prices to be at real market rates. That is going to be the sweet point for consumers and for jobs. With that, I yield back and again, I thank you for your courtesy. Mr. Farenthold. Thank you very much. At this point, we will start a second round of questioning. I will recognize myself for five minutes and then move across the aisle. Mr. Cicio, the gist of your concern is that as we start to export natural gas, there will either be a shortage or an increase in cost of natural gas that is used either as a raw material or feedstock for domestic manufacturing and to keep domestic electricity prices low as natural gas, certainly in Texas, is a major source of energy. Is that a reasonable summary of what you are saying? Mr. Cicio. No. Natural gas is different. That is what makes this public interest determination so critical. Natural gas is very influenced by the public process. There is legislation and regulation that can impact the access to natural gas in terms of whether it is in a moratorium or not, and Congress can deal with the intangible drilling cost tax benefit and that is going to change the economics. Mr. Farenthold. Intellectual property is highly regulated and with music, their ability to profit is determined almost entirely on government regulation of copyright. We could go in and regulate almost any other industry. Mr. Choi, do you agree with that characterization that natural gas is unique over any other product or commodity? Mr. Choi. No, I would not. First, I would note that at the margin, there are some regulations that affect the amount of drilling, but for the most part, we have deregulated the supply markets and the market determines how much to produce. Mr. Farenthold. Thank you. Mr. Cicio, let me ask you this. As we get more natural gas through pipelines to our ports doesn't that make the liquids that are oftentimes produced with natural gas more available to your industrial customers to use for other products? Mr. Cicio. Drilling for natural gas, drilling for oil, it increases potentially natural gas liquids, so the answer would be yes. Mr. Farenthold. Using your argument that natural gas is special, does that mean we should add regulations to the export of other basic chemicals like ethylene and propylene? Mr. Cicio. I will say it again, natural gas is different because let us say if DOE approves a terminal, they are approving it for up to 30 years. The terminal operator then negotiates long term contracts that are mostly take or pay. That locks in demand for a 30 year time period. Meanwhile, consumers are exposed to the risk of public policy on the production side and on the demand side of natural gas. Mr. Farenthold. Can any consumer, whether an electric company generating for the public, negotiate a long term contract the way exporters can? Mr. Cicio. No. Mr. Farenthold. Why not? Mr. Cicio. There are very, very few long term natural gas contracts negotiated. Mr. Farenthold. At $3.00 and something, I might be negotiating long term ones myself. Mr. Cicio. We would like to do so. Mr. Farenthold. Mr. Ebinger, would you like to comment on this line of questioning? Dr. Ebinger. Congressman, I would only say I am old enough to remember when we could not burn natural gas in industrial boilers or powerplants because ``it was a noble fuel'' and we should not do that. We have made major disastrous decisions through the years whenever we tried to not allow market forces to work. It is precisely for that reason that in our analysis, we see plenty of NGOs being available for the American industrial renaissance and used the dry gas for export. As I said in my formal testimony, I think we have to be careful because this idea that Dr. Fleming seems to think, and I would agree with you, sir, I would love to see more natural gas exported but we think the realities of the marketplace are not going to allow all these projects before DOE to ever be developed in any time frame any of us can reasonably foresee here. As a result, we find some of the arguments put forth by the petrochemical industry and others to be somewhat spurious to the realities of the marketplace. Mr. Farenthold. Let me ask, Mr. Choi, you studied this, what is the environmental impact of this? It seems to me as we have low cost natural gas that is cleaner burning than oil and in most cases, coal, isn't it a positive net environmental to get more people burning clean natural gas? Mr. Choi. Yes, it is. If you look at the carbon emissions in the United States, we are at I believe the lowest point we have been in the past decade. Most of it is because we are burning more natural gas than we ever have. One other comment I would like to make is that just because there is a rush to apply for DOE approval to export doesn't necessarily mean that all these applications, if approved, would be built. Mr. Farenthold. Thank you very much. I apologize for cutting you off but I am out of time. As a courtesy to my colleagues, we do need to keep moving. I will now recognize Mr. Horsford for five minutes and turn the Chair back over to Chairman Lankford. Mr. Horsford. I want to get back to this issue of who should be involved in this process. Mr. Choi, would you agree that all interests, those of the producers and those of the consumers, should be considered by the Department of Energy in their determination of what is a public interest? Mr. Choi. I would rather not speculate on the role of the Department of Energy but I can say that the market does consider interests of all parties. Mr. Horsford. Mr. Cicio, from what I understand, you are here representing some very large companies that use natural gas as an energy source and as an input in their production process. What is your view on being able to have a say in this process? Mr. Cicio. Absolutely. All interested parties impacted on the producing and consumer sides. Let us take a look at when the DOE was confronted with dealing with determination on imports. They did a rulemaking process to develop the criteria and allowed for all parties to comment, both verbally and in writing, to help develop that criteria. It was done in a very transparent way. My comments earlier today were that there has not been any rulemaking that has allowed for a set of criteria for exports. That is what we believe is the best process to move forward. Mr. Horsford. The fact that your report accurately estimates the impact of exportation on your member companies is a concern? Mr. Cicio. It is interesting. The NERA report said that energy prices go up, wages go down and the return on capital of all industries are impacted in a negative way. Mr. Horsford. Mr. Chairman I think this hearing demonstrates, at least to me, that there are many sides to the question of allowing LNG exports on a scale never before considered in U.S. history. The law requires the Department to do what is in the public's interest. I know none of us want to be motivated to pushing the Administration into picking winners and losers and it is something that of course the majority has talked about, not only in this committee, but in others and has objected to that type of consideration. The last Congress I know is in the past but I would hope we would not do anything to try to push the Administration into selecting winners and losers in this process. At this hearing, which concerns something the oil and gas industry wants, federal permission to export LNG and thereby raise gas prices and profits, I get the feeling that some members of the majority want the Administration to go in this direction so long as oil and gas are the winners. I hope we have the public's interest in mind rather than merely just one industry's welfare or profit. Thank you. Mr. Lankford. [Presiding] I would recognize myself for the next line of questioning. Mr. Horsford, I would agree, this shouldn't benefit one group or another, but there are tens of thousands of jobs on the sidelines currently that in a 7.6 percent unemployment rate for the Nation, we would love to see. The jobs that are happening take an area like North Dakota, an area where there are a lot of jobs that are $80,000 and above as a starting position for a high school education. It would be great to see this promulgated across the country. A lot of families would enjoy that kind of benefit to see that in the days ahead. I apologize that I had to slip out for a moment. I need to come back to several things on this. I am still trying to process through how we make the decision and how we move forward in timing on this. Mr. Smith, is DOE anticipating setting a numeric number of bcf to export a day? Is that an expectation, there will be some moment or some decision to be made to say we are going to find a magic number of bcf, we are going to limit that? Mr. Smith. I thank you for the question Mr. Chairman. The Department has not made any determination about a volumetric limit or cap or any sort of quantified figure, so that is not a determination the Department has made. Mr. Lankford. That decision has not been made or that decision is irrelevant, it is going to be market-based? I am trying to figure out will this be centrally determined, that someone in DOE will determine we can do up to 6 bcf a day but that is all we can do economically based on studies or will the market decide? Mr. Smith. The market has made no determination about the imposition of any cap, quantification, the calculation of any caps. That is not a decision the Department has made. We have not come to that conclusion. Mr. Lankford. You have made a decision at least 2 bcf are going to happen a day because the existing export facility has that capability of 2 bcf a day, correct? Mr. Smith. We have decided to permit 28.2 bcf per day. Mr. Lankford. I am trying to figure out where does this go from here. Is it a situation where we have 19 applicants, we are going to let the market decide what is appropriate or will there be some decision to say we have two to permit, we are going to allow two more, then wait a couple years, allow two more, wait a couple years or is there going to be a decision we think eight is the limit and try to figure out some process to get us to eight? Mr. Smith. Mr. Chairman, we simply have not made that determination. We are in the process right now of making this determination. The comment period literally closed three weeks ago, so there is a very large volume of analysis the Department still has to do. Mr. Lankford. I do have to have some concern on the large volume because there 186,000 individuals. My understanding is that was about 300 actual comments and they all came in in the thousands. Am I right or wrong on that because 300 comments you are working through, just a large quantity of the same 300 comments? Mr. Smith. There were a total of almost 200,000 comments. Many of those were letter writing campaigns but you also have to go through those because any campaign, people write things. You have private citizens who are voicing their opinion. Mr. Lankford. I definitely understand that. We get letter writing campaigns, I assure you, but the comments, as they come in, as far as in your decision-making, you have 300 unique comments really there, you have thousands to reply to, but as far as your decision-making process, you are really filtering through 300, is that correct? Mr. Smith. I do not want to characterize the 300 as being unique from the other very large volume because we have to go through all those comments. Mr. Lankford. I understand. I am just trying to figure out the decision-making process. As we are trying to process through this, the assumption was the decision has been made we are going to exports on non-FTA. That decision is done, it is behind us. We are going to do it. Now it is how many additional facilities. What will be the process and time? That is all that is left at this point to determine. We have already determined we are going to export. I am trying to figure out is the timing because there are a lot of contracts globally that depend on this, there are a lot of jobs here in America scattered across the country. Mrs. Lujan Grisham mentioned before, there are areas in New Mexico and other areas all across the country that are dependent on job development increasing. With a 14 year low in production of natural gas happening right now, that is a lot of jobs sitting on the sideline that turn around almost immediately if production begins to increase for export if there is some sort of advance planning, if we know the timing. I am trying to figure out what is the timing and what is the process. Mr. Smith. I can say a couple things, Mr. Chairman. First, we are committed to dedicating resources, dedicating personnel, lawyers, to move as quickly and expeditiously as possible to get to a transparent and defendable decision. Mr. Lankford. You still don't know whether that is a month from now or ten years from now? Mr. Smith. Mr. Chairman, we are in the middle of the analysis right now. I could opine on that but I would be making something up that is trying to foresee the outcome of the analysis we are currently doing. Mr. Lankford. Do you have an expectation when you make a decision, will they be made one at a time or based on a set of merits where you will say this is the criteria. If your permit application meets this set of criteria, we are going to permit you and let the market decide or will this be, whatever system it was, we are going to permit this company and then three years, six months later or whatever it is, we are going to permit another one? Will it be that order or will it be open it up and let them go pursue capital, see who gets the capital and who gets contracts? How will that work? Mr. Smith. Again, that would be, to a large extent, prejudging the analysis we are doing now. I can say we have announced an order, we know what the next applicant is going to be, what the subsequent applicant is going to be. Mr. Lankford. How was that determined as far as the order, the next one that is going to go down? Mr. Smith. In the Sabine Pass Order, we stated we had to look at the cumulative impact of LNG export, since we are looking at a total of 28.2 bcf with the number of applicants. Mr. Lankford. There is no way they are going to build that much. There is not that much capital to build that. Mr. Smith. That is not the argument I am making. I am just saying that is the total quantity of export applications we are looking at. We took the applicants on a first come, first serve basis, with priority given to those that have started the FERC pre-filing process. You can go to the DOE website, you can download a pdf that shows you the list and the order. That is the order in which we will proceed. Mr. Lankford. So it is a first come, first serve if they have gone through the pre-application. That is fine in some semblances and I am sure for the company that is number two, they are excited about that process and the company that is number 19 is probably not as excited. I know from being in a high school history class, when tests were turned in on Friday, the first person turning in their test didn't always get the highest grade. A process that says whoever got his application request in first and started with FERC has the highest priority seems to pull out some merit issues. Again, I am saying that and probably the number two company is furious I am saying but there seems to be some need for merit. Do they have the capital, do they have contracts, have they had communication on this, can they actually fulfill it, is this going to economically benefit the Nation? If we make the determination to do it, then we need to have some economic benefit immediately coming back to America, that we know they are actually going to be able to fulfill it and get it done. Does that come into play on this at all? Mr. Smith. I appreciate the comment. First of all, in order to get a permit before the Department of Energy, you need $50 and a fax machine, we get the application and it goes into the docket. One of the ways we tried to emphasize or measure seriousness or probability of outcome was to first do those applicants that have a pre-filing before FERC. That is when you start to spend very large quantities of dollars. We pushed those to the front of the queue, the rest to the back of the queue. There are any number of algorithms one could try to come up with to say this company is more serious than that one or they have a better project than this one. We opted not to do that. We said we were not going to try to judge the seriousness of companies, or their business model or the probability of financing because that is not our job. We wanted something in terms of fairness to say we think generally the idea that the company first in the queue should go first. It was only fair. Mr. Lankford. Did they know that in advance, that this was going to be first come, first serve? Mr. Smith. There was no process in place. This is brand new ground. Mr. Lankford. If someone did more research and took more time to fill out their application, they ended up in the back of the line. They just didn't know at that point? Mr. Smith. Again, this is a new process that we are creating. Mr. Lankford. You have a difficult job in this and I completely appreciate this. I know you are working expeditiously but at the end of the day, everyone, all of us on the dais, you, everyone is going to have to determine and be able to say to people this was a fair process that worked as expeditiously as possible. I have gone well over time on this. I would like to recognize Ms. Speier. Ms. Speier. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Let me say to both you, Mr. Smith and you, Mr. Chairman, you have done yeoman's work on behalf of each of your interests here this afternoon, you, Mr. Smith, in terms of recognizing that it is a judicial process and you cannot really offer a lot of information about particular applications and Mr. Lankford for pitching for his constituents as well. I compliment both of you. Let me just say though on your point about winners and losers and whether or not someone has the ability to actually take this approval and move forward, it appears they have done just that. If you have put them in two categories, those that have already done some precertification through FERC, they are in the front of the queue you just said, is that correct? Mr. Smith. Yes, that is the case. Those are being considered first. Again, that is not a capricious determination. Those were the companies already spending millions and millions of dollars on feed and pre-feed and all the other things they have to do in terms of determining environmental impact. Those are companies making a real investment. They are spending dollars now. As I said, we didn't try to grade each company but we did create two categories and we thought that was a fair way to approach it. Ms. Speier. Let me also ask this question. There are many folks in the oil and gas industry that will go out, get the permits and just sit on them. That is not what I think any of us are interested in. How do we prevent that from being part of this extended evaluation as to the merits of how much is eligible to be exported versus not? Mr. Smith. The Department has some flexibility and some leeway in the way it writes its Orders. One thing we emphasize is that when we write an Order, when we say yes or no, we don't write yes or no on a sticky and say that is a decision. There is actually a hundred-plus page Order the Department comes out with that goes through in a very open, transparent and dependable way, the rationale the Department has gone through to get to that Order. Also, we have the flexibility and the discretion to put in qualifications or requirements for the companies. If you look back to how we managed the Sabine Pass Order for Cheniere, there was a requirement that by a certain date, they had to have first gas going through the terminal which essentially prevents a company from going in for a relatively low price. Ms. Speier. Fifty dollars? Mr. Smith. Yes, $50, and obtaining an application which they can sit on ad infinitum. That is not in the public interest; that is not what we wanted to accomplish. That is how we managed that. Ms. Speier. Mr. Cicio, you have been very helpful and have raised some interesting issues. Can you list out some of the companies that you represent? Mr. Cicio. Actually, no. We do not list our companies on our website, we do not publish them. The reason why is that we work on some very delicate environmental issues and many of our companies have retail profiles. We try to protect them from having that exposure. IECA represents a trade association and the cumulative views and the consensus of those companies. We speak as an organization, not speaking on behalf of a company. Ms. Speier. I understand that, but for us to evaluate the impact on companies making it in America, you talked about the American renaissance of manufacturing which we all embrace. We want products made in America. I do a Make It in America forum in my district every year. I just want to get a sense of how many employees are we talking about, are these Fortune 500 companies. Play 20 questions with me. Mr. Cicio. Our companies have over $1 trillion in revenues, they employ 1.4 million people, have some of the largest manufacturing facilities in the United States. These are large companies. They produce steel, aluminum, chemicals, plastics, nitrogen, fertilizer, glass, cement, food processing companies, these are all name brand companies. Ms. Speier. You said how many employees? Mr. Cicio. It is 1.4 million. Ms. Speier. You also indicated that while the export contracts typically are for 30 years, that is not the case for manufacturing companies within the United States. Could you elaborate on that? Mr. Cicio. Manufacturing companies would love to lock in long term, particularly fixed or advantaged natural gas prices but for the most part, that is not happening. They are having to buy natural gas prices on the spot market. Ms. Speier. Typically that is a decision being made by the actual utility that is offering you the gas? Mr. Cicio. No. This is a negotiation that can occur between a manufacturing company and a natural gas producer or marketer. Utilities are not part of the equation. Ms. Speier. So this is a producer basically saying no, we are not going to lock in a 30 year contract to you but in an export setting, they could? Mr. Cicio. When I referred to 30 years earlier, I was referring to the DOE approving an application, the terminal owner then is going to secure long term contracts and they have that ability for 30 years. The point I was trying to make earlier is that creates demand that is going to impact domestic consumer prices for a period of 30 years. My point is still the same. Natural gas is different than other trade products because it can be drastically impacted by public policy, by Congress and by the EPA and by the Bureau of Land Management that can impact the production over that 30 years and/or drive consumption such as the EPA on utilities, on the industrial sector, controlling greenhouse gas emissions or the industrial boiler mac. Public policy does drive demand and can impact supply. Ms. Speier. Mr. Chairman, my time has expired. I just want to thank all of the witnesses for their testimony. It has been, I think, a very enlightening hearing. I think what is coming of it, for me certainly, is this is a process that has to be done carefully, one that probably in my mind should provide for some level of export but not to the detriment of manufacturing here in this country or consumers in this country. Unfortunately, Mr. Chairman, I have to depart to give a speech. I thank you. Mr. Lankford. Dr. Fleming, do you have another series of questions? Mr. Fleming. Thank you, Mr. Chairman. I will say parenthetically before I get to my question, EPA government policy can have impact on any of these natural resources. Certainly coal is a great example where that is happening today. Again, I have difficulty seeing where natural gas is unique. Mr. Smith, NERA issued a result of their study. I understand DOE received that this summer, is that correct? Mr. Smith. That is correct. Mr. Fleming. However, it was released from DOE in December. Can you account for that delay? Mr. Smith. First of all, I certainly would not characterize that as a delay. This is the NERA study here in my hand. This was a significant and substantial economic study looking at quantifying the impact of an unprecedented activity in the United States in terms of exporting hydrocarbons in the form of liquefied natural gas. This study was received by the Department, as requested by the Department, as something to be responsive to our need to be judicious about quantifying public interest so we did need some numbers. Once it was received, there was an intense process to understand the study, to ensure that it was clear and transparent, to ask clarifying questions to make sure this study, once entered in the public record, would be clear and responsive to the types of things we need to understand as part of the public interest determination. Mr. Fleming. Who made the decision when to actually release it? Mr. Smith. I made that decision. Mr. Fleming. Nothing that happened perhaps in November could have had any impact on that decision at all? Mr. Smith. No. The study was released when I was prepared to release it and when we had done the work we needed to do within the Department of Energy to make sure it was appropriate. Mr. Fleming. Mr. Ebinger, how do the transportation costs of LNG affect the price in the world market compared to domestic prices? Dr. Ebinger. Transportation costs are, of course, extremely high. Right now, if we are looking at what could we deliver gas for example if we were ready to export into the Japanese market, the actual transportation costs would be somewhere in the neighborhood of $5 to $6 per million BTU, that added on to the Henry Hub price plus the cost of gasification and regasification, I think most analysts would agree we would probably be able to deliver gas to Japan today if we could export somewhere between $9.50 to $10 per million BTU, significantly lower, of course, than the Japanese price. Mr. Fleming. How would that compare to other forms of energy for Japan? Would that be a favorable price for them? Dr. Ebinger. At that price, it would be very favorable for Japan because otherwise Japan imports almost everything and since the Fukushima accident, the closing of the nuclear powerplants has added roughly 4 bcf a day to Japanese demand, killing them because they are importing into a very high cost market. Mr. Fleming. Obviously it is a very marketable concept to sell natural gas to Japan up to and including all the delivery costs that go with that? Dr. Ebinger. The concern would be, however, the longer we take to get some of our projects into the marketplace. I think some of the others at the table have different views on this, but if you believe the long run implications of any U.S. LNG going to market will be to begin to bring further competition, that the existing prices in Japan will begin to fall. They will not fall down to probably $10 but they might fall to $12 or $13, so the competitiveness of the U.S. while still probably reasonable is not going to be as great the longer we take to get LNG projects into the marketplace. Mr. Fleming. How does that affect U.S exporters compared to competitors and the U.S. exports compared to competitors in Qatar or African countries? Dr. Ebinger. The big loser in this competitive LNG market down the road may be Australia, although most of the big projects they have coming in they have long term contracts for, but they are an extremely high cost producer. It is anticipated Qatar is the low cost producer bar none. Although Australia will be volumetrically larger than Qatar when all the projects come in, it is anticipated the new fields in East Africa will be extremely competitive into the Far Eastern market and even some of the West African projects in Nigeria and Angola will probably find a competitive market there. The big question in my mind is will the Chinese and the Russians do some very, very large pipeline deals because that would be extremely competitive in the Far Eastern market against any LNG. Mr. Fleming. What I am really hearing is that we are seeing a tremendous worldwide opportunity in natural gas that will allow the growth of economies around the world where they will have very competitive energy prices, that they can be good producers for export/import which will be good for consumers, would that be a correct assumption? Dr. Ebinger. It will not only be good for consumers, but for those of us that do believe in climate change, it offers a unique opportunity to at least use a cleaner fossil fuel. It is not an answer clearly for the long run because it is still a CO2 emitting fuel but we do get some breathing space on the carbon front. Mr. Fleming. It is my understanding that just in the last three years, carbon emissions have dropped 15 percent across the U.S. That is due directly to the conversion to natural gas. Really this is a win-win-win. We get better environment on CO2 emissions, we get better prices for manufacturing and production so we get better job environment, higher paying jobs and consumers get a better deal on the cost of energy. I cannot imagine what could be better for this Nation or this world. Dr. Ebinger. I would agree. The irony is that for those opposed to the U.S. signing the Kyoto Protocol, which we did not sign, ironically because of gas backing out; coal, we have actually met the reduction targets we would have been obligated to meet had we signed the Kyoto Protocol. Mr. Fleming. Thank you, sir. Mr. Lankford. Gentlemen, thank you for being here. I know this was a long afternoon. We got interrupted a couple different times by votes and other things. I appreciate you coming here and the conversation you have had. I would like to enter into the record the EIA, the NERA, the Deloitte and the Brookings study. Mr. Cicio, we had your study already attached to your testimony, correct? Mr. Cicio. My written testimony. Mr. Lankford. I wanted to make sure that was added. I want to be able to add the other studies into the record. Mr. Lankford. The issue that we have today is we have around $40 to $50 billion of private money on the sideline that our economy desperately needs. The best gift we can put into our economy is certainty, to know the rules and to fulfill those rules, so there is some gift of predictability as we walk through the process. Mr. Smith, you have a tall order as we have talked about multiple times and a delicate balancing act. You have somewhere between 300 and 186,000 different comments that have come in that we have to sort through, make a decision and predict what the future economy is going to be based off that. That is no simple thing. We understand that but dates of when the decisions will be made, then a date for how that decision is going to be done and a process to expeditiously work through that is a huge difference. It is every company that has applied into and how we work through the process, whether it be number 2, 19 or 1 to 19 or whatever it may be, to know they are not six years behind the other one because they were two days behind them in submitting an application, to know there is some sort of process that is really fair to everyone but is also clearly defined. We don't envy you in that process but we are grateful you are taking it on and do look forward in the days ahead to hearing a clear timeline and a clear process so we will be able to receive that. At any point, if you need to communicate with this committee or we can help you in any way, we want to be an asset to you because of that responsibility. Did you have a final statement? Mr. Smith. I was just going to say I appreciate that comment. We are moving forward with all due haste. We understand that sense of urgency. Mr. Lankford. Thank you. With that, we are adjourned. [Whereupon, at 5:36 p.m., the subcommittee was adjourned.] [GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] T0386.056 [GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] T0386.057 [GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] T0386.058 [GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] T0386.059 [GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] T0386.060 [GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] T0386.061 [GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] T0386.062 [GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] T0386.063 [GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] T0386.064 [GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] T0386.065 [GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] T0386.066