[Pages H8446-H8447]
From the Congressional Record Online through the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]




                  GLOBAL WARMING: DO NOT OVERREGULATE

  The SPEAKER pro tempore. Under the Speaker's announced policy of 
January 21, 1997, the gentleman from Florida [Mr. Stearns] is 
recognized during morning hour debates for 5 minutes.
  Mr. STEARNS. Mr. Speaker, I rise today to address the subject of 
global warming. Today marks the beginning of the White House Conference 
on Global Climate, a precursor to the Kyoto Conference in December.
  The conference, of course, is expected to highlight the usual 
rhetoric, that the world is heating up, the ice is melting, the oceans 
are rising, that doomsday is fast approaching. Reality, however, shows 
that the global warming is still without accurate data for 
confirmation.
  The great majority of the scientists that the administration parades 
as proof positive of global warming are not really knowledgeable of 
atmospheric physics, although some may know a lot about forestry, 
fisheries or agriculture. In other words, the administration is relying 
mostly on social scientists, policy experts and government 
functionaries.
  Nevertheless, the White House persists in its claims. In fact, they 
plan to move towards a costly global climate treaty, armed with 
questionable United Nations intergovernmental panel information on 
climate change, the IPCC reports, which make the case that the world is 
heating up and humans are to blame.
  But before we rush to judgment, Mr. Speaker, we should know the 
facts. The 1995 IPCC report lowered its best estimate for warming by 
about a third from the 1990 IPCC report. In fact, that shows they were 
off by one-third. Also, the sea level estimates have been reduced. In 
the 1970's, scientists estimated a 25-foot rise. Today they estimate a 
1.5-foot rise.
  Why all the uncertainty? Forecasts of global warming rely on computer 
models which attempt to simulate the Earth's climate. Climate change 
proponents have always been quick to point out that the models predict 
a discernible amount of warming resulting from CO2 buildup. What they 
are hesitant to discuss is the relative confidence they have in their 
own models, and in fact confidence levels are low for two main reasons. 
One is a lack of computer power.
  There are 14 orders of magnitude in the climate system. So far 
researchers have only been able to model the two largest, the planetary 
scale and the scale of weather disturbances. To model the third, 
thunderstorms, would require 1,000 times more computer speed.
  Even if researchers could model smaller scales, they would run into 
the second obstacle, a very sketchy understanding of the Earth's 
climate. Researchers, for example, are still debating the impact of 
clouds on the Earth's climate. Until these questions are resolved, it 
is difficult to build models that make accurate predictions.
  Now, many scientists think it will be more than a decade before we 
have the technology to adequately predict the planet's future. Of 
course, scientists do accept the existence of a natural greenhouse 
effect in the atmosphere, which has been known since the 19th century 
and is not to be confused with any influence from human activity. 
Another accepted fact is that the greenhouse gasses have been 
increasing as a consequence of an expanding world population, carbon 
dioxide from burning fossil fuels, for instance, and methane from 
raising cattle. But the climate warming of the past 100 years, which

[[Page H8447]]

occurred mainly before 1940, in no way supports the results of computer 
models that predict a drastic future warming.
  The pre-1940 warming is likely a natural recovery from a previous 
natural cooling. Most important though is the fact that weather 
observations have shown no global warming trend in the past 20 years 
whatsoever.
  The discrepancy between calculated predictions of warming and the 
actual observations of no warming has produced a crisis for these 
scientists. Those who want to believe in global warming keep hoping 
that proof is just around the corner. In the meantime, unfortunately, 
it is the American taxpayers who will bear the burden of this 
uncertainty.
  Mr. Speaker, let us be careful not to over regulate.

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